I recall the Euro being way too warm for the March 2014 ice storm in the Triad. Whether that has any relevance six years later, I’m not sure...
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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)
- Thread starter Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
- Start date
Is there anything we can look at for tomorrow night or Monday morning on the euro to verify it’s placement of dynamics?
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
looking at point forecasts, GSP introduced a mix generally along and north of that line
Another thing GSP is talking about some potential onset flurries before midnight Tuesday night, they actually have a slight chance of a mix IMBY 9-11pm Tuesday. GFS showed this today
I have noticed in the past it’s not uncommon for those guys to go by two different models on two different shifts.
1st - GFS
2nd - Euro
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Avalanche
Member
Youve completely missed the point.
Euro is hard to beat inside 3-5 days usually. Like someone said earlier it is usually a couple degrees to warm with the CAD though. What I'm more concerned with is not being very much moisture and a fast mover.......... I'm going to bet models move towards the EURO in the next few runs. But hope I'm wrong!!
I'll take anything that is FROZEN...
Stephenb888
Member
When do the next models of any importance come out?
Agree with this, euro/eps is really hard to beat at this range, this is there time to shine 90% of the time
The ICON runs at 3:45 PM.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Hmm.. RAH AFD...
The main forecast challenge in the long term is precipitation types
for the next system Tuesday night into Wednesday. Cold air at the
surface will be in place as precipitation develops Tuesday night,
and temperatures will only increase to the 30s for most areas in the
Triad and near the NC/VA border through the day. Although some snow
may be mixed in at times, this looks more like a Miller Type B
scenario which would yield a better likelihood of freezing
rain/sleet for the NW Piedmont. Forecast soundings continue to show
a warm nose in the lower-levels that would melt falling
precipitation, and where surface temps are below freezing, freezing
rain would be possible. There could be brief periods early Wednesday
morning and late Wednesday evening that a rain/snow/sleet mix could
reach as far southeast as the western edge of the Triangle, but
considering this event is days away, confidence remains low. Total
precipitation from the storm is currently around 0.50".
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Frozen precip breaking out at hour 84 on nam
I’d be wary of putting stock in the 84 hour NAM. It’s probably about as reliable as the GFS is 5-6 days out. That’s not to say it’s wrong, I’d just focus more on ops/ens than meso models right now.
SimeonNC
Member
The Euro is actually somewhat colder at the surface Wednesday after on the 12z run compared to the 00z run.
I don't think he/and anybody else was necessarily taking stock in what it has, more-so just a report on what it has verbatim, and you're right, that's the way to go.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like Wake is right on the line between rain and something frozen as usual.
Sure, I’m just making sure we all know lol. A reminder since we tend to get all excited about NAMs
SimeonNC
Member
For example Fayetteville was near 50 on the 00z Euro at around 3pm Wednesday and on the 12z Euro, Fayetteville is in the lower 40s.
Also CLT went from upper 37-39 degrees to around 35-36.
Also CLT went from upper 37-39 degrees to around 35-36.