• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

iGRXY said:
As of right now what locations do you think gas the best shot for a serious ice storm or maybe they get cold enough and get a bit of snow as well?
Click to expand...

Somewhere along a line from Raleigh-Durham-Charlotte, NC to Union-Anderson, SC and points NW towards the western piedmont & foothills stand the greatest chance of seeing a legit ice storm in the Carolinas imo. Areas right along and just east of the Blue Ridge escarpment in western NC and SW Virginia (Mt Airy, Wilkesboro, Lenoir, Morganton, Marion, etc.) probably stand a decent chance to end up w/ more IP than ZR if we can keep the general trends we've seen in NWP the last few days going a little longer.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This x100. The NAM, RGEM, & perhaps even the CMC are worth staying up for when we get closer, the ECMWF historically hasn't been that great w/ CAD.
Click to expand...
I can buy that. And I'll stop being so pessimistic over Euro runs. It may have a warm bias somewhat. But I do know for a fact the CMC and the GFS has been too cold even for CAD events in the last few years. That said I think a blend of the two is usually the way to go. At this moment I really don't see this being an issue for GSP, CLT and GSO. Hickory to Wilkes maybe some ice but not buying a major storm at the moment. Just my opinion.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Somewhere along a line from Raleigh-Durham-Charlotte, NC to Union-Anderson, SC and points NW towards the western piedmont & foothills stand the greatest chance of seeing a legit ice storm in the Carolinas imo. Areas right along and just east of the Blue Ridge escarpment in western NC and SW Virginia (Mt Airy, Wilkesboro, Lenoir, Morganton, Marion, etc.) probably stand a decent chance to end up w/ more IP than ZR if we can keep the general trends we've seen in NWP the last few days going a little longer.
Click to expand...
I am now in Anderson, SC. Been watching this. Think we have a decent shot?
 
I can tell you from personal experience living in this h3ll hole we call Anderson, it will be a cold rain and you can take that to the bank. Anything else and I would be amazed.
Webberweather53 said:
Somewhere along a line from Raleigh-Durham-Charlotte, NC to Union-Anderson, SC and points NW towards the western piedmont & foothills stand the greatest chance of seeing a legit ice storm in the Carolinas imo. Areas right along and just east of the Blue Ridge escarpment in western NC and SW Virginia (Mt Airy, Wilkesboro, Lenoir, Morganton, Marion, etc.) probably stand a decent chance to end up w/ more IP than ZR if we can keep the general trends we've seen in NWP the last few days going a little longer.
Click to expand...
 
GFS basically has the same coverage of ZR with a slight decrease outside of the main affected areas. However it backed off on accums
 
Stephenb888 said:
I can tell you from personal experience living in this h3ll hole we call Anderson, it will be a cold rain and you can take that to the bank. Anything else and I would be amazed.
Click to expand...

I've been burned too many times inside the short range on strong CADs like this to assume 3-4 days out that the upstate of SC will remain entirely liquid in this event.
 
RVD said:
View attachment 57322
I'd be amazed if this low pressure placement verifies on 00z Thursday. GFS does not respect the CAD.
Click to expand...
Been saying these globals love to run LP into CAD. No one truly thinks this low would run right into a 1037 HP? The NAM, RGEM, and maybe CMC for temp profiles and maybe the globals for general moisture timing and output at this point and time should be used, IMO.
 
Sleet City USA said:
I’m not really sure where this one goes mods, so move as needed.
What are you seeing that’s got you so bullish on this one?
Click to expand...
I'm curious as well. A 1037 high is strong. But just because the high is the same strength as some previous bad storms probably doesn't mean the same result. Seems like every one would perform differently. Allan Huffman says the high is too far NE.
 
We are just in the communication stage. SREF, bufkit, NAM are days away for professional use. Anyone telling you the county or amount is trolling you. Science is not there yet nor will it be in your life time.
 
Most know their climo, if you do well in Miller B’s your likely to get a solid event, maybe storm level for Triad and 77 corridor with this setup. GFS continues to look lackluster at 500mb, it’s really a strung out mess vs amplification of the trough axis. We want the primary developing off GA with a wholesale transfer underway before it makes it to latitude of HAT, further south the better. Climo strongly supports a track along the natural baroclinic zone just offshore, I’d be surprised to see a B track just inland through VA and the MA, it’s happened just not often.
 
Im new to all of these models and stuff, but is there any chance a high pressure could come in ALOT colder than expected? Or is it usually always pretty accurate within a few degrees.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top