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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

When we get to the 6z and 12z runs tomorrow for the nam, that’ll be much better time frame to get a look at where we are headed
 
3km NAM colder than the 12k leading into the event. Granted it stops at 1am and has ZR breaking out on the NC/SC border
 
I know people have disagreed with me, but this really is a marginal event. Temps/Dewpoints aren't that cold. I'm definitely not saying that somebody isn't getting ZR, and the chances are high NW of I-40, but along I-85 things are just going to likely be at freezing give or take a degree.
 
Ollie Williams said:
It's almost comical how well it follows the I-85 line up to the NC/SC border.
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Yeah for real, I’m thinking if you live along the I-85 corridor, it’s literally the difference between a degree, it could go either way, the precip isn’t that heavy either which doesn’t help until that afternoon, I guess for areas near 85 it’s more of a tree/power line ice event while areas further north it’s more of everything
This is close af, once we’re close to the event it’s gonna be very important to see your DP/WB temp/temp
 
18z ICON looks like it's slowing up our southern stream wave in the southwestern US a bit already thru 24 hr, the northern wave is a bit faster, will see if this translates forward in time
 
So I haven’t been paying any attention to the storm coming here overnight as I figured no chance at snow other then a few flurries. Then I looked at the euro which Im assuming is not going to be a reality. Anyone care to explain why it’s showing this and if it’s possible to get a surprise like this with the storm coming in overnight up here?

8FAE1BD6-0E44-4731-A0E7-E27664DE947D.pngAA495D2E-171A-4024-ACEC-BBA62180D370.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The slower this wave in the southwestern US is, the stronger the CAD is gonna be on Wed.


View attachment 57532
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Notice on the new 18z DWD-ICON, the sfc high is a tad further south than the previous run, this is mainly because the deep-layer flow is less zonal over SE Canada as the gap between the 50-50 low & our wave in the southern branch of the jet widens, this is a synoptic-scale tweak we need to pay close attention to tonight & tomorrow as our wave gets sampled by the RAOBs and fully ingested into the models by 12z tomorrow. Having that mid-level shortwave ridge into the Lakes & Ontario is crucial in this regard in directing the low-level sfc high further south & that's a key element this particular setup is missing (if any) wrt classic CAD

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icon_z500_vort_eus_fh51_trend.gif
 
I really like the placement of the ZR here. Obviously cut those totals down up in the triad. But the heaviest totals in the upstate are likely to be in eastern Greenville county, Spartanburg county, and Cherokee county.
 

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packfan98 said:
@Webberweather53 im seeing the same trends on the 18z RGEM
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The 18z ICON was actually warmer at the sfc because it had less dynamically driven cooling from precip prior to sunrise vs earlier runs, however drizzle, freezing drizzle, and light ZR will likely start earlier than forecast by globals (as is often the case) & that's typically when the most efficient ZR accumulation will begin to occur in the far western piedmont.
 
This is a very good post. Soon, we will see the 8” turn into 20” snow maps for those in western NC. Please use the right map when dealing with mixing. Chances of snow favor western areas vs eastern areas but light accumulations.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 18z ICON was actually warmer at the sfc because it had less dynamically driven cooling from precip prior to sunrise vs earlier runs, however drizzle, freezing drizzle, and light ZR will likely start earlier than forecast by globals (as is often the case) & that's typically when the most efficient ZR accumulation will begin to occur in the far western piedmont.
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When you say for western piedmont are you referring to nc only
 
While the rgem May be a tad to cool in the eastern zones towards Raleigh, it’s been super consistent with this and honestly I see this as a solution if CAD was a bit stronger than modeled, just way less ice towards C NC and more towards western NC 5A80B7DB-7A54-4004-AC48-102A8F16268B.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
While the rgem May be a tad to cool in the eastern zones towards Raleigh, it’s been super consistent with this and honestly I see this as a solution if CAD was a bit stronger than modeled, just way less ice towards C NC and more towards western NC View attachment 57543
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A couple front end pingers and I’ll be ecstatic
 
Webberweather53 said:
Notice on the new 18z DWD-ICON, the sfc high is a tad further south than the previous run, this is mainly because the deep-layer flow is less zonal over SE Canada as the gap between the 50-50 low & our wave in the southern branch of the jet widens, this is a synoptic-scale tweak we need to pay close attention to tonight & tomorrow as our wave gets sampled by the RAOBs and fully ingested into the models by 12z tomorrow. Having that mid-level shortwave ridge into the Lakes & Ontario is crucial in this regard in directing the low-level sfc high further south & that's a key element this particular setup is missing (if any) wrt classic CAD

View attachment 57538



View attachment 57540
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If this wave keep on slowing and let the CAD build in could you see freezing rain in ne ga or is this only a upstate and nc storm
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
While the rgem May be a tad to cool in the eastern zones towards Raleigh, it’s been super consistent with this and honestly I see this as a solution if CAD was a bit stronger than modeled, just way less ice towards C NC and more towards western NC View attachment 57543
Click to expand...

Funny how the storms seem to know where the Wake County line is.

I am hoping the CAD is stronger here and hangs on longer than forecasted like it did a couple of times this year.
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_11.png

Wintry mix breaking out in NC @ 66 hours.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Obvious trend here due to a slower shortwave For more filtration of lower dew points View attachment 57547
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No net change on sfc temp output, but the slower southern stream wave translating to deeper CAD is arguably a favorable signal for colder low-level temps.

gfs_mslpaNorm_eus_fh66_trend.gif
 
Latest forecast from RNK!
Tuesday Night
Partly Cloudy In The Evening, Then Cloudy With A
Chance Of Snow And Freezing Rain After Midnight. Little Or No
Snow Accumulation. Lows In The Upper 20s. Light And Variable
Winds. Chance Of Precipitation 50 Percent.

Wednesday
Freezing Rain. Sleet With A Chance Of Snow In The
Morning, Then Rain In The Afternoon. Light Snow Accumulation.
Highs In The Upper 30s. Chance Of Precipitation 90 Percent.


Maybe try it again next weekend?

Saturday Night
Mostly Cloudy. A Chance Of Snow Showers After
Midnight. Lows Around 30. Chance Of Snow 40 Percent.

Sunday
Mostly Cloudy In The Morning, Then Becoming Partly
Sunny. A Chance Of Snow Showers In The Morning. A Chance Of Rain
Showers. Highs In The Upper 40s. Chance Of Precipitation
50 Percent.
 
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