Yessir. Wedges usually mean 33-35 and rain IMBY. However, a few of those ensembles show the wedge turning the corner in north GA and heading up the great valley into TN. That’s the ones that get us good.
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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)
- Thread starter Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
- Start date
If its eye candy you seek you may get some in about an hour. If its reality you seek, well that comes about 1am. You'll have to stay up late for that letdown!
Dude we get it you think the Euro is the best thing ever.
Monday-Tuesday. While we will begin to get a general consensus over today/tomorrow, we won't know the specifics until then. Once the short-range models start coming into play. And once the NAM gets to its time range, we can start sniffing out those warm noses and such. And as always, as quickly the models showed this storm, they can just as easily rip it away. Leaving us in the dust. Seen/been there countless times.
SimeonNC
Member
The Euro is really but as I pointed out before it does get overamped and as others said it isn't the best with CAD, the mesoscale models will do better when it comes to CAD.
I think the NAM is the model to pay the most attention to with regard to thermals once it gets into range. So, a couple more days...
Stephenb888
Member
It just seems that it is the general consensus on here that a winter storm can disappear in a matter of hours the closer you get...but no one ever seems to think one can get better organized (more cold, etc) the closer we get. Why is that? I’m guessing too many fails.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Among other things, if we can get our southern stream wave to be over the TX/OK panhandle instead of closer to the MS river & Arkansas-Missouri at this time step on the GFS, we'd have basically optimal synoptic-scale timing here to allow our low-level cold/dry air mass to build in and become well established ahead of this storm. Right now, while it's not bad overall, it's just a little too fast and our cold air doesn't have as much time as it ideally should have to maximize our chances for snow/ice.
It's the kind of trend that's very doable even inside day 2 and the GEFS is certainly trending this way.
Yesterday's 12z GEFS at 84 hr had the wave over the Ozarks already by 0z Wed
Today's 12z GEFS is now over east-central Oklahoma 0z Wed. Another shift like that towards the TX & OK panhandle and we're basically right where we wanna be for this storm synoptically wrt timing and southern stream wave placement
It's the kind of trend that's very doable even inside day 2 and the GEFS is certainly trending this way.
Yesterday's 12z GEFS at 84 hr had the wave over the Ozarks already by 0z Wed
Today's 12z GEFS is now over east-central Oklahoma 0z Wed. Another shift like that towards the TX & OK panhandle and we're basically right where we wanna be for this storm synoptically wrt timing and southern stream wave placement
Yeah and the Hrrrv4 since it goes out to 48 hours now, they removed the terrible boundary layer mixing bias /issues where it would scour out CAD to fast I think to
I honestly can't answer that. I guess because of so many fails. One big rule here is you need the cold already in place. When you don't have that and you're already marginal on temps 4 days out it usually doesn't end well.
To add, while the op euro is good it often completely misses how much dry air/cold actually gets deposited in the foothills/piedmont even at hour zero. Ensembles and short range NAM are the ones to watch now. No reason to stay up for a high res op euro when it can’t handle surface conditions across the cad particularly north and west.
Yep. If we can get sleet tho that could enhance the cad and create a layer of freezing conditions at the surface. Otherwise most people are tracking a brief glaze of ice on metal surfaces etc.
SnowNiner
Member
Mentioned the NAM, it's way out there and certainly can change but even it's not cold enough for east of the mountains at this point.
ICON is slightly colder than last run, even with a slightly weaker CAD, and a even closer call for Charlotte
12z
18z
12z
18ziGRXY
Member
If you have the ICON at this range already showing 33 degrees in GSP and CLT that is a big signal as it’s more than likely going to drop a few more degrees more than likely.
Yeah that’s never good. You want ZR breaking out in Macon GA once the NAM gets into range tbh
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This x100. The NAM, RGEM, & perhaps even the CMC are worth staying up for when we get closer, the ECMWF historically hasn't been that great w/ CAD.
iGRXY
Member
As of right now what locations do you think gas the best shot for a serious ice storm or maybe they get cold enough and get a bit of snow as well?