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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

I wouldn’t sleep on that wave after completely yet, it’s working with a crap pac/ridge to its west but a few members are actually a bit close with it now F3E614ED-D579-416E-9EC7-1567D7346896.pngB8481C40-99E4-4EC1-95D2-D02BE24A8524.png0A507E3B-128F-429B-8403-1350938E6A4A.gif052125BC-AD86-40FD-96A3-B3C4FD531128.gif
 
Stephenb888 said:
Im new to all of these models and stuff, but is there any chance a high pressure could come in ALOT colder than expected? Or is it usually always pretty accurate within a few degrees.
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I’ve lived in northern Spartanburg county, Spartanburg, and Gaffney SC which is prime CAD region in SC and I’ve always seen it over perform bc the CAD is under estimated, and lasts much longer and colder generally anywhere from 2-4 degrees at go time. I like the NAM to tell me the temperature profiles but it is almost a bet that whatever falls in the upstate is going to be freezing rain.
 
iGRXY said:
I’ve lived in northern Spartanburg county, Spartanburg, and Gaffney SC which is prime CAD region in SC and I’ve always seen it over perform bc the CAD is under estimated, and lasts much longer and colder generally anywhere from 2-4 degrees at go time. I like the NAM to tell me the temperature profiles but it is almost a bet that whatever falls in the upstate is going to be freezing rain.
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I agree 100%. I have seen it happen many.many times. And yep Spartanburg and Cherokee counties are by far the best counties in SC for CAD.
 
Hmm...surprised no one is tracking the Mtn/Virginia snow for Monday night. If GFS para is anywhere close to right, there would be major implications to CAD two days later for North Carolina piedmont. The teens (dew point) would surely come if a big snow pack is realized. Our cad wind would be blowing right over fresh snow in Virginia and other areas to our north-east. We need them to over perform. Thoughts @Myfrotho704_
 
I just want a few paid days off work. Lol. I really hope this produces for a large segment of the board. I also hope that hospitals are prepared for power outages. This really isn't the best time to get a major ZR storm but we need something to get our minds off this year.
 
Stephenb888 said:
When you say a good sign is it a good sign for upstate SC as well or are you just referring to your area in NC.
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It's a good sign all the way into ne GA that the Temps have trended colder. Basically it's putting the upstate into play. But honestly below i85 will be a struggle as always. It's far enough from the mountains that Cad doesn't hang around that long and gets eroded quicker.
 
Oconeexman said:
It's a good sign all the way into ne GA that the Temps have trended colder. Basically it's putting the upstate into play. But honestly below i85 will be a struggle as always. It's far enough from the mountains that Cad doesn't hang around that long and gets eroded quicker.
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Think Webber’s Anderson to Union line is a good mark of the cutoff for frozen right now. But Rabun County, Hart County, and Stephens county in NE Georgia are likely in play as well right now.
 
Given the trends, I think it’s reasonable to add some light snow accumulations to the picture across parts of the Yadkin Valley area. Esp Surry County, I know we have several members there only see one posting tho. 1-3” from the weather channel may not be far off for here in Wilkes either.
 
Guys, let just be happy we are having an opportunity at winter weather. We had almost none last winter. Snow, ice, sleet. It shouldn't matter. The icestorm for my area back on dec 7th 2018 was .75-1.00 inch of ice but no power loss. Over an inch qpf is when things get problematic. I will take any winter precipitation.
 
Oconeexman said:
It's a good sign all the way into ne GA that the Temps have trended colder. Basically it's putting the upstate into play. But honestly below i85 will be a struggle as always. It's far enough from the mountains that Cad doesn't hang around that long and gets eroded quicker.
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If you get a solid, strong, stout CAD the I-85 issue will be a nonissue. Yes, that corridor struggles, a lot. But we also have the benefit of getting heavier precip rates, especially from coastal storms. I have seen numerous times where CAD holds on well into the Midlands in spring. We just need that same action this go around. It sucks because during the spring... if you're a svr weather enthusiast (like me) the wedge seems to hold.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I'm curious as well. A 1037 high is strong. But just because the high is the same strength as some previous bad storms probably doesn't mean the same result. Seems like every one would perform differently. Allan Huffman says the high is too far NE.
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It’s not. The difference between a surface high in southern Quebec vs New York is minuscule
 
ryan1234 said:
If you get a solid, strong, stout CAD the I-85 issue will be a nonissue. Yes, that corridor struggles, a lot. But we also have the benefit of getting heavier precip rates, especially from coastal storms. I have seen numerous times where CAD holds on well into the Midlands in spring. We just need that same action this go around. It sucks because during the spring... if you're a svr weather enthusiast (like me) the wedge seems to hold.
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Generally when we are relying on CAD for snow the NAM comes and sniffs out a warm nose and we end up with sleet. But at least this time if we are going to get any frozen at least along I85 it’s likely going to be ZR. Don’t see a chance for much of anything else.
 
Sleet City USA said:
I’m not really sure where this one goes mods, so move as needed.
What are you seeing that’s got you so bullish on this one?
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Experience, seen so many potential ice events like this and I understand the weaknesses inherent in NWP and how many of these types of storms tend to evolve.
 
Mr. Golf said:
Guys, let just be happy we are having an opportunity at winter weather. We had almost none last winter. Snow, ice, sleet. It shouldn't matter. The icestorm for my area back on dec 7th 2018 was .75-1.00 inch of ice but no power loss. Over an inch qpf is when things get problematic. I will take any winter precipitation.
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Bro, an inch of ice can wreak havoc on trees and power lines. Not sure what you're referring to. That would be considered a major ZR storm. You just got lucky that you didn't lose power.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Somewhere along a line from Raleigh-Durham-Charlotte, NC to Union-Anderson, SC and points NW towards the western piedmont & foothills stand the greatest chance of seeing a legit ice storm in the Carolinas imo. Areas right along and just east of the Blue Ridge escarpment in western NC and SW Virginia (Mt Airy, Wilkesboro, Lenoir, Morganton, Marion, etc.) probably stand a decent chance to end up w/ more IP than ZR if we can keep the general trends we've seen in NWP the last few days going a little longer.
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What do you think east of Raleigh for [mention]metwannabe [/mention]& myself?
 
Webberweather53 said:
It’s not. The difference between a surface high in southern Quebec vs New York is minuscule
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I’ve seen 1032 and 1033 highs in NY and Pennsylvania be more than enough to get frozen precip well into SC and NE Ga. a 1037 or 1038 in Quebec would provide just as much if not more CAD, imo.
 
tramadoc said:
What do you think east of Raleigh for [mention]metwannabe [/mention]& myself?
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I'd probably lean towards cold rain for places east of Raleigh & down here in my neck of the woods, but a light glaze at the onset is certainly still on the table if we get a significantly more cold air than forecast
 
ryan1234 said:
Bro, an inch of ice can wreak havoc on trees and power lines. Not sure what you're referring to. That would be considered a major ZR storm. You just got lucky that you didn't lose power.
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I've been through the worst or one of the worst ice storms on record in my area feb 1994. Like I said, we in the south so a warm nose has a tendency to creep in pretty often and not enough deep cold air to have all snow or snow/ip. If you go back on record and Webber can attest, we have had many more ice or ice/sleet events in the south. I was mainly referring to my area about .75-1.0 inches.?
 
Webberweather53 said:
I've been burned too many times inside the short range on strong CADs like this to assume 3-4 days out that the upstate of SC will remain entirely liquid in this event.
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I remember a few times when the CAD held on longer here than the forecast called for. Of course, when we have a chance at a winter storm, it would probably go as modeled.
 
18z cmc has a general idea of where the snow will get pushed to before ending. It’s gonna be wider in scope initially with all that dry cold air near the surface. Brief snow. I hope it expands out of the foothills into the Piedmont Triad cities to get some more people on the board for this winter. It’s possible with the way it’s trending. ❄️
 
18z CMC reminds of micro-climate scenarios here..being pockets of the foothills will stay snowy an hour or two longer while Boone and all the mountain counties go to ice. I have seen this before in cad ice storms. It’s never a big snow but it’s awesome to report a white snowy ground at 1,000ft with everyone above 2,000ft getting ice instead.
 
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