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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

[mention]iGRXY [/mention]

This is more in line what I expect. I would have done one of those maps, however just been busy with Christmas and work/school.

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BirdManDoomW said:
Brad P now saying could start as flake of snow for Charlotte and sleet. With ZR in the trees for Charlotte. Then cold rain.
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We're definitely not getting even so much as a flurry in Charlotte w/ these 850s. If any frozen precip occurs it might briefly be sleet near the onset before changing to rain and/or freezing rain

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Tarheelwx said:
It seems they should include parts of NW NC in the risk catagory. I think it will all boil down to how much precip falls before the temps rise to 33.
TW
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If they did then offices would be jumping the gun too quick with watches/advisories. It’s what they use. Not specific model runs that people think they do. It’s a tough call where the watch vs advisory should be. My guess is advisory everyone below Wilkes and warning north.
 
Another example of a laterally propagating frontogenetically forced band of heavy snow that couples to the rain/snow line >>> hence the old adage you have to "smell the rain (or sleet)" to get really good snow. Well, this is probably why:

Areas on the leading edge of the warm nose w/ max temps in 0-+1 C range (dark green in the first image below) experience latent heat of melting from snowflakes falling into the leading edge of a warm nose that offsets warm advection, while other places both back into the cold air and deeper in the warm sector continue warming unimpeded from advection. This enhances the local temperature gradient there and creates a natural zone of baroclinicity and enhanced frontogenesis in the region where the max column temps are near-just above freezing that allows for a frontogenetically forced band of intense snow to couple w/ the rain-snow line. This leads to the stereotypical front-end thump of snow followed immediately by mix &/or rain evolution we see so often in winter storms down here.

This storm is another good example of such a phenomenon.

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If some of these short range models are right with not even a cloud in the sky until 7am Wednesday...that would help bring a burst of SNOW along the Highway 421 corridor. All cold and dry then moisture pounces on it before the warm nose takes over. There’s other reasons to believe this too...it’s showery weather coming from offshore South Carolina...no big cloud field to keep us warm overnight. I know..the stars have to align for this to happen..but I wanted to explain why some of the in-house models that TV stations use show all snow initially up this way...even the cmc. Dry cold cad is known to eat away at cloud advancement too. A lot of factors maybe a surprise could happen further east on highway 421 near Winston.
 
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