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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

What's causing that little dip of ZR into Western Spartanburg and Greenville Co that the 12k has been locked onto?
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If there were to be a max zone for 0.33” to .50” of freezing rain I think it’s gonna be southern Wilkes over the brushy mountains with a second zone over eastern Allegheny County NC. These areas could get a little sleet/snow ground cover to keep the freezing rain going longer at the surface. Combine this with the best upslope in the region makes those areas a chase worthy spot for an ice storm. Elsewhere I believe .2” ice is possible given temps are barely there and precip continues to get delayed making it shy of any warning criteria.
 
This run looks a bit better than last run (looked to bullish) but man those super CAD areas in the foothills, 3km is already showing those areas that truly struggle to erode CAD
Also starting to think that light stuff Wednesday morning is gonna be the most effective stuff around here
02D91B18-B49D-4ED3-B751-E8AFE6A2AE85.png810DF02C-9A4D-42F8-8756-F9EE6894E145.pngFC87604A-6910-498C-8BDA-7117D9A4574F.png
*note some of this is likely overdone, especially if temps are marginal* DCC1498C-933A-4FBE-81C4-E2E54C68E584.png
 
Sleet City USA said:
What's causing that little dip of ZR into Western Spartanburg and Greenville Co that the 12k has been locked onto?
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Those areas wet bulb quicker due to getting the moisture first off the coast of South Carolina. If our storm gets delayed further it could be more cold rain vs ice along the southern zones near Charlotte.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This run looks a bit better than last run (looked to bullish) but man those super CAD areas in the foothills, 3km is already showing those areas that truly struggle to erode CAD
Also starting to think that light stuff Wednesday morning is gonna be the most effective stuff around here
View attachment 57657View attachment 57659View attachment 57658
*note some of this is likely overdone, especially if temps are marginal* View attachment 57661
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Yep you can see those 2 local maxes near the south mountains in southern Burke County and Brushy mtns as @BirdManDoomW alluded to in southern Wilkes.
 
Something between these 2 seem pretty reasonable although the 3km does show the freezing drizzle better 0F725644-C582-444C-A39D-18628729D230.png880AEB54-F710-405D-85F4-8D58B7B9C73B.jpeg
 
.15-.3 is across northern Spartanburg, northern Greenville, and Northern Cherokee counties per 3K nam. 0.05-.15 across the southern portion of those counties. Which is in line with my thinking. Landrum, Marietta, NW cherokee to chesnee likely to be on the high end of those totals. I had .24 according to the nam with where my location in the county is seems reasonable. Spartanburg city limits was around .1.
 
Thankfully less roads and people where those extreme ice totals are. 421 Wilkes will be wet while trees are hanging in the side roads of the brushy MTN community. Highway 115 will be the road to use for ice pictures coming into southern Wilkes.
 
NAM is typically bad with ice maps in the Watauga County area. There will be significant icing on the eastern side of the county but it usually tapers off going into Boone westward. Where it shows 1” of ice it likely just a tenth of an inch. The warning ice for Watauga/Ashe always ends up being in the remote forest areas that hug the escarpment of Wilkes (little to no civilization).
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Thankfully less roads and people where those extreme ice totals are. 421 Wilkes will be wet while trees are hanging in the side roads of the brushy MTN community. Highway 115 will be the road to use for ice pictures coming into southern Wilkes.
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I’m wondering how icy (if at all) the roads will be considering this weekend’s torch? There’s a lot of heat built up in that asphalt.
 
superjames1992 said:
I’m wondering how icy (if at all) the roads will be considering this weekend’s torch? There’s a lot of heat built up in that asphalt.
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Today's rains should help cool it some but my guess would be primarily your usual suspects, bridges/overpasses, elevated surfaces, etc.... although areas in the NW that are shaded could see a little problem I guess. Just my penny's worth lol
 
metwannabe said:
Today's rains should help cool it some but my guess would be primarily your usual suspects, bridges/overpasses, elevated surfaces, etc.... although areas in the NW that are shaded could see a little problem I guess. Just my penny's worth lol
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Yeah imo especially for fringe areas it’s gonna probably be a “tree ice event”, temps are so marginal
 
superjames1992 said:
I’m wondering how icy (if at all) the roads will be considering this weekend’s torch? There’s a lot of heat built up in that asphalt.
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Yes will need sleet for the ZR to stick on roads. Pine trees usually provide falling ice too for roadways here. If anyone comes up this way I recommend brushy mountain smokehouse.
 
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