SimeonNC
Member
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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)
- Thread starter Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
My first call map for this storm
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Worth mentioning, for verification purposes & to keep myself honest, I've also kept a running archive of forecast maps I've published since joining this forum in January 2017 on my website:
http://www.webberweather.com/winter-storm-forecast-verification.html
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
06Z Euro looks a degree or so colder in most places.
I like you’re 2nd December 12-13 2019 call map it looks pretty close to what I expect from this system. But I do want to see if this wave keeps trending weaker. Looks like the 06z euro went back towards a more amped up wave. However, it did still have a slightly stronger CAD.
I wonder if that was in-situ CAD or classical
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Dec 12-13 2019 isn't a good comparison to this event synoptically, impact-wise it's probably not terribly far off although a bit lower than what I currently expect. Dec 2019 was an in-situ CAD wedge w/ the parent sfc high already well offshore New England as the main precipitation arrived from the SW.
Also notice how much warmer the surface temperatures are to the north in Dec 12-13 2019 and the winds are out of the south in New England & the NE US.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
In-situ. The CAD in that event took forever to erode in the far western piedmont & hung around longer than forecast.
Clem282340
Member
What about a map for the upstate
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Freezing Rain Accumulation Model (FRAM) output is a bit more reasonable but potentially still a little overcooked.
RGEM is that solution imo where CAD hangs on a few hours longer than we all thought, all though I think the areas that’s most likely to possibly have that is the foothills where CAD does typically hang out much longer
Hrrrv4 should be coming into range, I’m almost sure they fixed the BL mixing bias (could be wrong) so it should be interesting
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is definitely one of the more classic setups where CAD tends to overperform vs NWP. However, when your high isn't in the proper position or the cold air is arriving after legitimate precip is already falling, those are the instances where we do bust warmer.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Hard to find a more classic freezing rain sounding than this area-averaged one on the RGEM Wednesday morning over the Triad.
Sfc temps and wet bulbs in the upper 20s-near 30F ✔
Mid-level warm nose > +3-4C (full melting of hydrometeors) ✔
Very shallow (< 2500 feet) below freezing air mass at and just above the surface ✔
Low-level cold advection ✔
Light-moderate precipitation ✔
Sfc temps and wet bulbs in the upper 20s-near 30F ✔
Mid-level warm nose > +3-4C (full melting of hydrometeors) ✔
Very shallow (< 2500 feet) below freezing air mass at and just above the surface ✔
Low-level cold advection ✔
Light-moderate precipitation ✔
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Hope the RGEM is to cool here ? yeah there’s absolutely no chance of IP with this, that freezing layer is weak af
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It could be a smidge too cold but I'm pretty doubtful in this particular case.
Clem282340
Member
What time does the 12z nam come out I’m watching the 3k one
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It'll be about another 30 mins or so
Clem282340
Member
Thanks