If that trend continues, may want to extend the end date.
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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)
- Thread starter Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
- Start date
Some GEFS members show it, wouldn’t shock me if some stuff breaks containment from the mountains and we squeeze out some light rain/flurries East of the mountains IF that upper level energy trends stronger and slower
CMC shows the same thing.
Hopefully we can trend to some stronger upper level energy because I’m sure DGZs are a problem with that lookCMC shows the same thing.
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Ncweather
Member
I’m going off the cliff with DT’s map! 10-15 miles NW of me gets a Ice Storm then 2-6 inches of snow 
lol. I get mostly rain! 
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
lol. I get mostly rain! 
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
0z Euro out to 24 hrs on TT already looks like an improvement synoptically for stronger CAD.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
CAD is much stronger this run.
NAM had a 1 mb stronger hp this run temps were slightly colder about 1-2 degrees. Temps are only off by another 1-2 degrees outside the mountains for this to become a widespread event.
iGRXY
Member
3K NAM really picked up on the light rain/drizzle, and strong CAD that run as well. Has a very serious ice storm in the upstate.
Clem282340
Member
Is that for the whole storm totals
There are still some small pockets in western NC and in VA otherwise this is it for the 3 NAM. However, I wouldn’t start watching this model till the 12z or 18z since it’s not in its wheelhouse yet. Right now I would look more at the 12km NAM and RGEM if you’re going to look at mesoscale models since it fits there wheelhouse better.
iGRXY
Member
I like using it to get a good picture of the usual CAD freezing drizzle and light rain that is often produced and it really picks up the strength of CAD even at this range. But we will get a better picture by 12z more than likely.
Clem282340
Member
Seems like to me on the 3k nam the ice is starting to extend into ga now
iGRXY
Member
Still see temperatures coming down another degree or 2 for everyone. Even if the models don’t show it I’ve had that happen for me many times with CAD during winter storms. Models had me around 31 degrees but at go time I was around 29 or 30. Which makes all the difference in the world.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
The 06Z 3k NAM is very concerning to me for the eastern slopes. It’s showing Boone with 1.26 of ice accrual with freezing rain still occurring at the end of its run at hour 60.
SimeonNC
Member
Hm, you would think Boone and that area would see more sleet.
iGRXY
Member
RDPS slid the ZR line down further into the upstate by about 10-15 miles. With the heaviest returns sliding further south in WNC down to the NC/SC border. You get a couple more jumps like that and that model really will paint a nasty picture.
Looking at the GEFSv12 the control went nuts I know it combines all frozen precip to snow but it’s still quite crazy.
SimeonNC
Member
I know this tweet is about two days old now but it's interesting how strong the 50/50 low is.