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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

Stephenb888 said:
What is it gonna take to get rid of all that green in the upstate?
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The 3k Nam would likely deliver the goods as it is showing the returns of having a much better CAD push. The DPs spread by 6 degrees at 1am. The 3K seems to be showing the better CAD push so far. Makes me think the precip maps haven't reset to show the better CAD push on the 12K yet.
 
iGRXY said:
View attachment 57575
Here's my first call. I think along and North of I40 and Northeast of I26 is likely to see a significant ice storm. Widespread .25 here with isolated .4 of ICE in some valleys where CAD will likely hold on for the duration of the storm. I think the Triad, along and south of I40, and the prime CAD areas of SC likely get a decent storm out of this as well. TR, Taylors, Landrum, Inman, Greer, Chesnee, Boiling Springs, Gaffney, Lyman/Welford especially will likely see a decent storm. Greenville, Southern Spartanburg, Union, Simpsonville, CLT, and just east of the Triad should see at least a glaze to up to .1 of ICE. These CADs always hold on longer than models show, and usually over perform. I still don't think we will get a good feel until the 12z suite tomorrow from the mesoscale models.
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Good map. I'll be right along the line as usual, although we are usually inside the ice zone with good CAD. I'll never forget Jan 1999 when we we inside the big ice by less than 5 miles. Tree limbs down all over Jonesville but no sign of damage at all from about halfway to Union and south. That one nailed Cherokee and Spartanburg too.
 
I really like the 3K nam depiction. To have the higher res nam on the side of ICE is scary. The NAM showed such a better push on CAD and slowed the moisture which helps CAD even more but it was not wanting to depict that on the 12K. The 3k however showed exactly that.
 
Dry slot is a mute point if upslope is coming from offshore South Carolina to Boone NC. The damage will be done before anything to our west tries to cross the mtns. As seen on NAM.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
And this is just really beginning at this frame.
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True but don’t expect a wall of moisture coming off the Atlantic. It’s usually patchy freezing rain and drizzle. NAM showing it well. Not everyone gets the moisture but those who do get the glaze quickly.
 
iGRXY said:
I really like the 3K nam depiction. To have the higher res nam on the side of ICE is scary. The NAM showed such a better push on CAD and slowed the moisture which helps CAD even more but it was not wanting to depict that on the 12K. The 3k however showed exactly that.
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We are certainly overdue for a big ice hit in the CAD region of NC, SC, and GA. Last one was in 2005 for most of us. This little system may not be huge, but could be a preview of something to come in the next 3-4 weeks.
 
JHS said:
We are certainly overdue for a big ice hit in the CAD region of NC, SC, and GA. Last one was in 2005. This little system may not be huge, but could be a preview of something to come in the next 3-4 weeks.
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Not so sure about that. Half inch of ice fell recently around hickory in November and winter ended.
 
JHS said:
We are certainly overdue for a big ice hit in the CAD region of NC, SC, and GA. Last one was in 2005 for most of us. This little system may not be huge, but could be a preview of something to come in the next 3-4 weeks.
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Incorrect. February of 2016
 
Yes it is the end of the 3K Nam but the NAM overall had much better cold push and CAD. The CAD was in a bit better position as well. The energy is holding back longer allowing for more CAD to build in yet the 12K NAM showed basically its previous run. We’ve seen models look much better at H5 before but it takes a couple of runs for it to transition to the precip maps which is what I think is happening here. However the 3K nam, although at the end of the run, was depicting the better cold push, the lower DPs, and moisture set up.
 
Wouldn’t shock me if Freezing drizzle began as soon as right past midnight Wednesday, as you get WAA over that CAD dome, you get shallow stuff
And oh yeah don’t be surprised if there’s sleet with this stuff as well 5D7B132A-BBDF-4286-BBFA-D93CD5FD613E.pngAED2B00C-3E1E-49E7-9A7C-BD6BAE3D11B8.jpeg
 
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