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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

iGRXY said:
View attachment 57588
End of the run here. Another thing to note here is the precip is light which would really help Ice build up even if temps were only 30-32 degrees.
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Generally, the wave hasn't just been trending slower- it's also been getting weaker. I think you're seeing the more subtle result of that trend: precip will generally be lighter, which will help make ice accrual more efficient.
slower_weaker.gif
Regarding the areal extent of ice shown there: I'm not willing to trust the 60 hour 3km NAM verbatim, but I'm also not willing to trust the 60 hour 12km NAM much either. I do think, though, in the next 12 to 24 hours we'll see models shift colder at the surface in response to the accumulation of these subtle changes aloft.
 
It’s long range NAM but we can extrapolate the evolution of the event better tonight. All ice chances are coming from offshore South Carolina in the form of very light drizzle. The dry slot you saw earlier coming from the west is simply the end of the event as the moisture to our west is largely rain as it crosses the mtns but most of it could fail to do so. The CMC is likely to bust with heavy precip being snow/ip back this way. That evolution seems less likely.
 
RVD said:
Generally, the wave hasn't just been trending slower- it's also been getting weaker. I think you're seeing the more subtle result of that trend: precip will generally be lighter, which will help make ice accrual more efficient.
View attachment 57590
Regarding the areal extent of ice shown there: I'm not willing to trust the 60 hour 3km NAM verbatim, but I'm also not willing to trust the 60 hour 12km NAM much either. I do think, though, in the next 12 to 24 hours we'll see models shift colder at the surface in response to the accumulation of these subtle changes aloft.
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Definitely agree with you. Don’t really trust either NAM at this range but the 3K definitely depicted the surface much better that run compared to what the NAM was showing at 500mb and with the CAD. But I definitely do not trust either one at this range. 12z will be much more telling imo.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
That’s when things get really slick. Drizzle to light rain.
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Exactly. Normally you need those mid to upper 20s to get good ice accumulation because you’re getting a moderate to heavy rainfall with multiple inches of liquid water. But this event will likely be light rain for several hours so those 30-32 degree rumblings (I still think we drop another couple degrees the closer we get to the event) would get ice to build up quickly.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Plenty of more runs to go.... don't speak in absolutes just yet.
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For sure, just what I'm reading on the nam and other runs to now. That's what I lean toward. But I'm sure it's possible if the 3K gets in range tomorrow and dews are colder my mind can be changed. I am a weenie after all. Lol.
 
if any showers can survive the mtns temps could cool in the evening for a change over to snow across the northern piedmont counties of NC. Glaze in the morning, dry slot, snow shower to end. More ice wherever upslope occurs the most (escarpment counties). Seems to fit well with keeping the higher ice totals near the foothills.
 
GFS holding right at freezing for about 5 hrs here. But one thing I think we will see as well is just like with the 3k NAM getting the usual CAD light rain and drizzle that the globals don’t pick up on from 1 am on is going to start adding up. Especially if we are still at freezing at 10am like the GFS shows. Plus the GFS is likely too warm at the surface with temperatures by a couple degrees especially with better CAD showing up every run.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Wouldn’t shock me if Freezing drizzle began as soon as right past midnight Wednesday, as you get WAA over that CAD dome, you get shallow stuff
And oh yeah don’t be surprised if there’s sleet with this stuff as well View attachment 57591View attachment 57589
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It always starts earlier than modeled, precip moving in. Just likebyou alluded to, drizzle nature. On the other hand the virga can be stuborn at the begining sometimes to.
This is a win win sutuation if we get a glaze .25 less. I dont mind and it beats looking at wet tree limbs all day. Roads should be fine, save the overpasses far western,foothill areas. Remember guys 32 degrees is also the melting point as well as the freezing point. Id take 12 months of frozen if it was up to me. But I really enjoy it pre Christmas the most.
 
Do we know when the models will be run off of sampled information?
 
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