You’re going with 3/10 max of Ice in northern Spartanburg? I would be careful with the NAMs ice maps.
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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)
- Thread starter Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
- Start date
You’re going with 3/10 max of Ice in northern Spartanburg? I would be careful with the NAMs ice maps.
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Yeah the RGEM is interesting, if that verifies or is just a degree colder wouldn't rule out a very brief period of ip/zr a row of counties SE of what it currently shows
Very close call on change over to snow by 0z Thursday. GFS Para and CMC. Temps plummet below freezing and moisture is still around. I believe the short range models (NAM) are too far out to see this. Tail end events rarely work out but worth watching imo for Piedmont. 
WxBlue
Meteorologist
I told Eric this in our group chat, but I'll repeat again here - it concerns me to see RGEM's thermal profile. It's usually pretty solid from what I've seen with northeastern winter events when I was in NH.
Bruh 
RGEM ZR accums, couldn't get that FRAM map to work like @Webberweather53 has been showing so these totals are likely exaggerated somewhat
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Other than maybe some temp problems, sign me up, I’ll take my chances 
iGRXY
Member
For the Landrum area? Absolutely. They're hovering by 2 of tallest mountains in the county and some of the tallest mountains in the state. Cold air entrenches itself in spartanburg county with CAD and Landrum is usually the last to switch. Definitely could see .25 - .3 ICE accrual along and north of Highway 11, especially the closer to the Greenville mountains you are.
iGRXY
Member
RGEM had the temperatures I was thinking we would likely get (29 - 31 degrees) across the northern upstate but i figured we likely wouldn't get that to actually show up on a model and it would be the usual nowcasting type thing where the thermometer shows it being just slightly colder than anticipated. RGEM is concerning.
Yeah that wedge boundary is too far east in NC imo
If a wedge is to overperform then 9/10 it’s to the south and west and not to the east. Usually a small sliver just south of 85 that digs deep into the upstate and down towards GA.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If we can get the 2nd wave to do anything substantial that might be our best chance yet as there will be a very fresh and deep snow pack to our north in the mid-atlantic and NE US to work w/ to deliver low-level cold air.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Only thing we really need to fix is the trough base is very broad, want to see a smaller, consolidated vort max to get the most out of CVA & differential temp adv.
Please 
RVD
Meteorology Student
Sure, I'll take another flizzard. This system is distinct from the freezing rain Miller B setup, so I'm not sure if we should be talking about it in the same thread, but it's got another day+ to trend better before making it to the west coast.
Winter Storm Gail had been named for North Carolina and points north. Wow.
GFS at least has stuff breaking containment but the DGZs aren’t ideal