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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

pcbjr said:
One hell of a discussion to wake up to ... :eek:
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Your having a nightmare, go back to sleep! A major Eastcoast trough is coming soon!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Your and 1300m's interpretation of what I said was incorrect, I thought it was implied that this was an anomalous ridge because I'm pretty sure most of us are or should be already well aware there's a trough over the Great Lakes in the means, you would need a ridge axis >1-1.5 sigma just to break even & that's nothing to sneeze at
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What you said, referring to a ridge, was incorrect. Moreover, I'm looking at the shape of the height lines. The 558 line on that EPS map goes from near Vancouver, BC, to far southern OH. That's actually a deeper trough than the normals map you just posted, which has a line go from Washington state to far southern OH. In other words, the trough is actually a little sharper over that area of the OH Valley than is the normal despite the height of 558 being above average.
 
ForsythSnow said:
A brief moment to check on the boards and I see a debate on if colors on a map is a ridge or not. From my standpoint, the orange does not equal a ridge. It is an anomaly. It's like saying it's going to be cold in Miami if it's showing below average. It comes down to the intensity and the actual strength. For instance, what defines a ridge at 500MB? It's kind of like what defines a low VS a high and at what MB does it change? The anomalies in between the two centers aren't that above compared to the actual two centers I see.

While it's an anomaly, is it truly a ridge? Does the actual flow of air connect completely and at a decent magnitude,are they barely connected and barely touching, or are they completely disconnected and slightly separated? You also have to remember the resolution on these things this far out is horrendous, so it may appear in a way that isn't true.
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You would need an extreme ridge of at least 1-1.5 sigma or more displaced directly over the lakes just to generate zonal flow in this region, much less an actual ridge axis, up to that point you can still have a trough in the means but it's capable of turning blowtorch warm w/ a ridge that strong, the sensible impacts are nothing in comparison to an anomalous trough. Thus having a trough in the OH Valley in the means is virtually meaningless, it's usually there anyway except in extreme cases w/ a monster -TNH, and lends you little if any useful information on its own.
 
GaWx said:
What you said, referring to a ridge, was incorrect. Moreover, I'm looking at the shape of the height lines. The 558 line on that EPS map goes from near Vancouver, BC, to far southern OH. That's actually a deeper trough than the normals map you just posted, which has a line go from Washington state to far southern OH. In other words, the trough is actually a little sharper over that area of the OH Valley than is the normal despite the height of 558 being above average.
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The climatologies, gradients, and projection of the 500 mb heights of NCEP Reanalysis and ECMWF aren't directly comparable the former uses a 1981-2010 climatology, while the ECMWF uses a newer, warmer, and much smaller 20-year climatology as is also the case w/ the EPS weeklies on weatherbell. Of course the trough in the means looks sharper because it's surrounded by two ridges in both the Rockies and the western Atlantic but that doesn't necessarily mean the impacts will be the same as a canonical trough anomaly which is clearly what I was getting at yet.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
The climatologies, gradients, and projection of the 500 mb heights of NCEP Reanalysis and ECMWF aren't directly comparable the former uses a 1981-2010 climatology, while the ECMWF uses a newer, warmer, and much smaller 20-year climatology as is also the case w/ the EPS weeklies on weatherbell. The trough in the means looks sharper because it's surrounded by two ridges in both the Rockies and the western Atlantic but that doesn't necessarily mean the impacts will be the same as a canonical trough anomaly
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I'm by no means giving in, but I don't want to keep this up forever. We're obviously still in disagreement and neither side will give in. I don't see that changing. So, despite my having both 1300m and Forsyth agreeing with me, I think we should just agree to disagree and not waste any more of our and the readers' time.
 
GaWx said:
I'm by no means giving in, but I don't want to keep this up forever. We're obviously still in disagreement and neither side will give in. I don't see that changing. So, despite my having both 1300m and Forsyth agreeing with me, I think we should just agree to disagree and not waste any more of our and the readers' time.
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You can have a trough in the means but a ridge in the anomalies at the same time, I don't know where the confusion is because I clearly implied that this was an anomalous ridge. Smh ...
 
i dont care what the fat ratts said today bout winter... buttercups are sprouting through the surface barely.... green wild onions are starting to come up in yard.... spring and tornado chasing weather isnt to far behind.... im ready for it.... light at the end of the tunnell
 
1300m said:
There is no such thing as a ridge in the anomalies. What, physically, would that even represent? A trough is a trough and a ridge is a ridge. Height anomalies are simply a climatological comparison at a given location in time of a numerical value.
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What useful information other than the derivation of anomalies & juxtaposition of planetary waves do you actually get out of the mean height field when a trough can lead to sensible impacts that ranges from 10-15 degrees above to 15-25+ degrees below normal. You do realize how big of a ridge you'd actually need in the anomalies just to get zonal flow there right? Even the stupid strong anomaly in the great super NINO of 1997-98 couldn't break even and there was still a substantial trough in the means there even though it was blowtorch warm.
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tennessee storm said:
i dont care what the fat ratts said today bout winter... buttercups are sprouting through the surface barely.... green wild onions are starting to come up in yard.... spring and tornado chasing weather isnt to far behind.... im ready for it.... light at the end of the tunnell
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I've had green onions all around since September, they mean nothing in relation to spring, it's a cool weather weed. The last half of February still could end up cold and snowy!? Hard to tell being Feb 2nd and all
 
1300m said:
There is no such thing as a ridge in the anomalies. What, physically, would that even represent? A trough is a trough and a ridge is a ridge. Height anomalies are simply a climatological comparison at a given location in time of a numerical value.
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Tell that to academia.
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1300m said:
I feel like we are discussing two totally different topics. Probably best just to let it go.
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I agree. Those refer to an anomalous ridge, or a ridge that is not normal, while we were discussing how the EPS output is showing an anomaly.
Webberweather53 said:
You said an "a ridge in the anomalies" or as I clearly put it an "anomalous ridge" doesn't exist. Apparently that's not the case. Idk why you're suddenly confused by this.
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Yeah, we aren't on the same page I think. Let's drop it here or you two can debate semantics in each other's PM versus the February thread.
 
1300m said:
What is this lol? You are not making any sense to me. This is semantics. An anomalous ridge and a ridge in the height anomalies are two entirely different things.
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1300m said:
Stop it, now. Don't throw this back on me. You are not correctly describing what you are trying to say and are trying to play word games .
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Apparently ridges or troughs in the anomaly fields don't exist anymore according to you.
 
Webb, 1300 both of you are great ppl and brilliant with weather and science . both of you and Larry have great minds about this type of stuff, to good for each other. Please lets work together and enjoy each other talents, so the newbies can learn off yall. Thanks
 
The placement of the ridge in Alaska and near Scandinavia at day 2-3 is exactly where you'd want them to be if you were rooting for a split of the polar vortex in the long range. A negative height anomaly over Eurasia coupled w/ a strong Scandinavian block oth would favor displacement.

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Taken from Maritus, Polvani, & Davies (2009).
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Henceforth, a little over a week later, whola the vortex splits in half.
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Webberweather53 said:
The placement of the ridge in Alaska and near Scandinavia at day 2-3 is exactly where you'd want them to be if you were rooting for a split of the polar vortex in the long range. A negative height anomaly over Eurasia coupled w/ a strong Scandinavian block oth would favor displacement.

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Taken from Maritus, Polvani, & Davies (2009).
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Henceforth, a little over a week later, whola the vortex splits in half.
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That looks good, but I still think I see a little SE ridge down there! :(
 
Tarheel1 said:
That looks good, but I still think I see a little SE ridge down there! :(
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Yeah it does look good, here's the corresponding climatological wavenumber 1 & 2 patterns from Garfinkel (2010). The twin ridge axes over Alaska and the far N Pacific & Scandinavia are pretty close to projecting onto the wavenumber 2 pattern to a T. The climatological wavenumber 1 pattern is fairly dependent on ENSO especially late in the winter.
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There was a lawyer, going to Court.
Another lawyer, much older than he, ran into him on the way.
She said - You have a lot of books and papers with you.
He said, Yeah, I have the law on my side. All of this written by learned legal scholars.
She said, do you have facts?
He said, I have this law. I need no more.
He lost.
No-one on the jury knew what he was talking about.
 
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I'm curious as I've never paid attention to all the polar vortex spilt talk of the past years and I'm not well versed in it. What would be the effects at 500mb should the vortex split as depicted.
 
The easterly QBO's descent in the low-middle stratosphere has stalled recently around 40 hPa & we're still feeling the impacts of a westerly QBO atm in the troposphere. This can happen (exclusively in easterly QBO events only however) if the near-equatorial upwelling from the troposphere and lowermost stratosphere thanks to the descending easterlies (which modifies the near-equatorial upper tropospheric/lower stratosphere static stability w/ cooling favored during easterly QBO and vis versa) is stronger than the wave fluxes from Rossby-Gravity Waves allowing the easterly wind anomaly to downwell.
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Tom Skilling said on his Chicago weather broadcast tonight that it would be cold for the next week and half and be much warmer from mid February into March. If it's warmer up there it's probably not real cold down south.
 
Millibar-Monster said:
Tom Skilling said on his Chicago weather broadcast tonight that it would be cold for the next week and half and be much warmer from mid February into March. If it's warmer up there it's probably not real cold down south.
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Having lived on the other side of the Lake for 7 years, believe me, "warmer" is a very relative term up there ... :confused:
 
Arcc said:
I'm curious as I've never paid attention to all the polar vortex spilt talk of the past years and I'm not well versed in it. What would be the effects at 500mb should the vortex split as depicted.
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It depends on the position, amplitude, and persistence of the tropospheric wave pattern, but if successful in splitting the polar vortex, this could lead to a sudden stratospheric warming event (SSWE) wherein the warming is so intense over the polar cap that the westerly winds associated w/ the polar night jet encapsulating the polar vortex are slowed to at least 0 or reverse entirely. Polar vortex split events usually favor immediate cold in Europe thanks to the Scandinavian blocking high, cold (if any) is often delayed for North America because we have to wait for the anomalies generated near the stratopause by these wave fluxes to downwell into the troposphere and hope that most of it doesn't simply radiate out into space. It often takes a few weeks or so for said anomalies to begin impacting the troposphere, thus we wouldn't really see any sensible effect from this PV splitting event until late February or March at the earliest, if we do at all. There are many cases in La Ninas where we actually turn much warmer following a SSWE.
 
Millibar-Monster said:
Tom Skilling said on his Chicago weather broadcast tonight that it would be cold for the next week and half and be much warmer from mid February into March. If it's warmer up there it's probably not real cold down south.
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You never know. It could be 0 in Atlanta and 70 in Chicago. Anything is possible.
 
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Clayton said:
So a SSW or PV split doesn't even guarantee cold here?! Wow we really suck. we basically don't know if we'll get cold at all. It's really upsetting to hear how this can February is turning into a dud. That's what we get for being ahead of ourselves. At least some of us. The chances of warm are probably higher now. I guess we just may have to wait till next year
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What is a can February? I drink out of the bottle
 
Clayton said:
So a SSW or PV split doesn't even guarantee cold here?! Wow we really suck. we basically don't know if we'll get cold at all. It's really upsetting to hear how this can February is turning into a dud. That's what we get for being ahead of ourselves. At least some of us. The chances of warm are probably higher now. I guess we just may have to wait till next year
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There's no guarantee that the SSW impacts Eurasia. The cold could simply get all dumped into the Pacific, aka 2011-12.
 
All I want to know is if it’s going to get cold and snow here again. Can anyone tell me that?!
 
Rain Cold said:
All I want to know is if it’s going to get cold and snow here again. Can anyone tell me that?!
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Yes it will. Just be patient between now and 2020. ;) In seriousness, I'm not sure. Nothing is clear beyond the next 24 hours it seems, and even foggier beyond 126 hours. If we don't see any good signs by late February, I'd call it quits or gamble on a rare March storm.
 
I'm going to guess that whatever happens in February, at least a few people aren't going to like it. Even if it's a cold February.
 
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