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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Well GFS still shows the PV split, who knows what it will eventually mean....

gfs_Tz10_nhem_20.png
 
Fwiw from Judah, seems the trend as of now though, why I'm still punting til mid Feb and hoping for a late winter come back for one last hurrah....
 
Isn't cold in Eurasia bad? That gives us warm in the East right?
 
GaWx said:
It isn't nearly that black and white, especially with you generalizing about "Eurasia", which is what, 10K miles long?
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Just using the terms Judah was using
 
GaWx said:
It isn't nearly that black and white, especially with you generalizing about "Eurasia", which is what, 10K miles long?
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And just used to waiting on the unicorn SSW events to happen , and when they do in the last few years, cold dumps into Europe and Asia, we torch, 2013 style!
 
GEFS comes in with a stronger -EPO day 7 and 8 and nice bump up on the mean snowfall for an overrunning event day 8 or so. Maybe half the members with snow in the southeast.

GEFS Ensembles Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa Height Anom 168.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
And just used to waiting on the unicorn SSW events to happen , and when they do in the last few years, cold dumps into Europe and Asia, we torch, 2013 style!
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Was reading his tweet too. It seems like he writes on his blogs about how the stratosphere disruptions help drive colder weather for the United States and then this tweet seems like, no, it really drives cold into EurAsia. He knows what he is talking about and I just misinterpreted.
 
-EPO goes a long way on the GEFS this run. 6-10 solid cold in the 6-10. See why the mean snowfall is so far south.

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_6.png
 
Day 9 early in the morning...

However I've been burned so much by the GEFS in the last two years. It's always given me some fantasy to look at.
 

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Kylo said:
-EPO goes a long way on the GEFS this run. 6-10 solid cold in the 6-10. See why the mean snowfall is so far south.

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Wow Mexico's historic winter continues if that look is right. Crazy.

Edit: Southern TX also has scored this winter. Someone I know down in the San Antonio area saw snow for the first time in several years. Maybe he will again? Lol.
 
Im sorry but in no way, shape, or form is this subtropical ridge from the international dateline to western Europe going to verify, a trough is going to show up somewhere in that ridge axis. It tried to blowtorch the entire CONUS a week ago and we see how that's panning out...
eps_z500a_nh_53.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Im sorry but in no way, shape, or form is this subtropical ridge from the international dateline to western Europe going to verify, a trough is going to show up somewhere in that ridge axis. It tried to blowtorch the entire CONUS a week ago and we see how that's panning out...
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Webb,
I really mean it ... hope you saw your shadow this morning and find something percolating out there that'll toss some more winter our way ... ;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Im sorry but in no way, shape, or form is this subtropical ridge from the international dateline to western Europe going to verify, a trough is going to show up somewhere in that ridge axis. It tried to blowtorch the entire CONUS a week ago and we see how that's panning out...
View attachment 3715
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The GFS Ensembles showed something simlar. Not very sure if the cold is going to make it to the Southeast U.S this month or not.gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_54.png
 
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The EPS is pretty clueless atm, these run-to-run changes have been pretty dramatic, it's hilarious how this model suite has trended from a 150 dm anomalous trough to a 250 dm anomalous ridge over the exact same spot of the NE Pacific in just a few days. Take its forecasts beyond day 7 w/ truckloads of salt.

eps_z500a_noram_53.png
eps_z500a_noram_45.png
 
On the contrary, that ridge extending that far likely isn't going to be what we see, however, on the other board I saw someone say that strong MJO events favor a ridge over most of the US...

Someone that I would say is knowledgeable too, I saw it from a met on the TN Valley subforum.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
On the contrary, that ridge extending that far likely isn't going to be what we see, however, on the other board I saw someone say that strong MJO events favor a ridge over most of the US...

Someone that I would say is knowledgeable too, I saw it from a met on the TN Valley subforum.
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This claim is not true at all, whoever said this needs to pick up some literature on the topic before spouting baseless garbage. As I've already discussed before, stronger MJO events on their own in isolation lead to more variability in the mid-latitude wave train, interference w/ inherent mid-latitude variability and ENSO can impact the variance as well as the bgd climate. Current literature and data doesn't support this notion that CONUS-wide ridging is automatically favored because we have a strong MJO event, where the MJO is located is more important than its intensity
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Im sorry but in no way, shape, or form is this subtropical ridge from the international dateline to western Europe going to verify, a trough is going to show up somewhere in that ridge axis. It tried to blowtorch the entire CONUS a week ago and we see how that's panning out...
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I don't agree that just having above normal 500 mb heights in a location is enough to say there is a 500 mb ridge being depicted there. For example, I don't think that is a 500 mb ridge in the Ohio Valley and Great Plains despite the above normal heights. That looks more like a trough to me considering the shape of the height lines.
 
GaWx said:
I don't agree that just having above normal 500 mb heights in a location is enough to say there is a 500 mb ridge being depicted there. For example, I don't think that is a 500 mb ridge in the Ohio Valley and Great Plains despite the above normal heights. That looks more like a trough to me considering the shape of the height lines.
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1300m said:
I was going to post this. There is a mean trough across at least the northern US on that EPS plot. The height anomalies are above average but it's not showing one continuous ridge .
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I'm pretty sure it was implied that this was an anomalous ridge. There's normally a trough in the means over the OH Valley anyway so I'm not sure you could really glean any useful information out of saying there's still a trough in the means there even if the heights and surface temps are well above normal as the EPS shows
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm pretty sure it was implied that this was an anomalous ridge. There's normally a trough in the means over the OH Valley anyway so I'm not sure you could really glean any useful information out of saying there's still a trough in the means there even if the heights and surface temps are well above normal as the EPS shows
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But what you said was incorrect.
 
GaWx said:
But what you said was incorrect.
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Your and 1300m's interpretation of what I said was incorrect, I thought it was implied that this was an anomalous ridge because I'm pretty sure most of us are or should be already well aware there's a trough over the Great Lakes in the means, you would need a ridge axis >1-1.5 sigma just to break even & that's nothing to sneeze at
rw4bo1_6uE.png
 
pcbjr said:
One hell of a discussion to wake up to ... :eek:
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A brief moment to check on the boards and I see a debate on if colors on a map is a ridge or not. From my standpoint, the orange does not equal a ridge. It is an anomaly. It's like saying it's going to be cold in Miami if it's showing below average. It comes down to the intensity and the actual strength. For instance, what defines a ridge at 500MB? It's kind of like what defines a low VS a high and at what MB does it change? The anomalies in between the two centers aren't that above compared to the actual two centers I see.
Webberweather53 said:
It's an anomalous ridge was my point.
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While it's an anomaly, is it truly a ridge? Does the actual flow of air connect completely and at a decent magnitude,are they barely connected and barely touching, or are they completely disconnected and slightly separated? You also have to remember the resolution on these things this far out is horrendous, so it may appear in a way that isn't true.
 
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