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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Rain Cold said:
Also, one critically important element to keep in mind...the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere is just north of the border. There are a lot of ways to bring that down. It's sooooo much easier to get cold when you don't have to wait for our source region to recharge. It can happen quickly. So, you can be 70 F one day and 48 hours later, you're in the 20s. No reason at all to worry today.
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70 one day, and snowing 6 days later. That's what happened with the last storm. And I think when we have a lot of up and down in winter that's when we get better shots at good storms here in NC. We don't want it warm, but we don't wan't it bitter cold for a long time, either.
 
Question looking at the 12z GFS I know it's over way over 5 days out but by looking at the track of that storm and how from one hour span to the next it seems like it gets most of north middle Georgia and middle Georgia in snow but the accumulations don't reflect that same with Alabama. I would think it at least would want put a dusting over north Georgia with that swing around
 
Clayton Reid said:
I am trying to add to the discussion, but I honestly don't see anything that cold or interesting. I keep hearing delayed but not denied, but I just don't want it to be wasted. I mean what happens if you spent all this time discussing freezing February, and it's really not even looking like it'll be freezing or get close to it if we are lucky based on current trends. It's really hard to just ignore the model guidance when they keep screaming ridge, and the GFS has a big cold bias.
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If you’d have told me back in November that the pattern for February would look like it does now I’d be more then happy. It looks like plenty of energy and cold shots in the medium/long range. It may or may not yield snow but the pattern certainly doesn’t look so bad that you should be as negative as you are being.
 
Raleigh 6"+ SN/IP dates in February
(16 storms): pretty well spread out except a little quiet Feb. 2-5:

2/1, 2/6, 2/6-7, 2/9-10, 2/9-10, 2/10-11, 2/11-13, 2/14, 2/15-6, 2/17-8, 2/18-9, 2/21-2, 2/25-6, 2/26, 2/26-7, 2/28,
 
Well last night I said if the euro would start showing snow like the gfs is Then I would get more interested. Well I’m interested now.

12z euro
847e7fd38851360c1aff04b6b1ab4b6e.jpg


12z gfs
f6d2411b9166948237fe81c55fcafbc6.jpg


Obviously it’s still a ways out but you now have the gfs, euro and Canadian showing snow for northern Tennessee next weekend. Maybe this ends up as one of those storms we were talking about earlier that shows up more then 5 days out and ends up verifying. Still I’ll hold off on any excitement and see if this storm is still here at the end of this weekend.


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Falls posted this on the other board. ICON: The eastern NC is probably from Monday nightish, but western NC is Fri into Sat.

pppp.thumb.png.8f32988dc045904ae11178d2ec816045.png
 
NCSNOW said:
Falls posted this on the other board. ICON: The eastern NC is probably from Monday nightish, but western NC is Fri into Sat.

pppp.thumb.png.8f32988dc045904ae11178d2ec816045.png
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So it's saying 2 inches here for Monday/Tuesday? If so, could be legit since it first popped up less than 5 days out. GFS was showing snow for eastern NC, too.

Went ahead and started a thread for it.
 
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One little monkey wrench for a great back half to February is the tropospheric polar vortex is so large and needs something to shove it south. The GEFS has the -AO cranking but the EPS doesn’t and is warmer for the southeast.

ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_nhem_11.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Never any guarantees with weather, but the upcoming period looks much, much more promising than some of the tremendously butt ugly awful patterns that we've seen the last few winters.
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Yeah, the cold is coming a bit later than I think many came to believe thus some disappointment. Plus the models don't really go out to past mid February so it's not in sight yet. But we have some solid reasons to believe that around mid February we'll have an artic airmass in our vicinity and a woke STJ for a prolonged period of time. The details of, how close is the cold, when does it get here, where the storms go....are way out there still. But just those two ingredients put together is a nice reason for a bit of excitement...especially since many of us have already seen snow this winter.
 
The CPC look over "Normal" is not bad; and it does look good for the Upper South. These Friday maps have human input, correct?
 
IMG_0882.PNG

The warm blob is a little overrated, atmospheric processess are often of comparable importance and were largely ignored or glossed over by those in the media, etc
 
Shawn said:
The CPC look over "Normal" is not bad; and it does look good for the Upper South. These Friday maps have human input, correct?
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Yes, but they have been trending colder by the day...obviously Feb 1,2 won't be as cold as the last end of that period, but it's been showing the trend each day of colder farther southeast.
 
Lol so this is what it's like to get underneath 474 dm thicknesses, the tropopause is virtually at the ground lmao. Using the 2 PVU surface some over eastern Canada dip below 600 hPa.


Unknown.png
 
Irrespective of exactly how strong the SE US ridge is and whether it gets seriously cold in the SE US or not, this pattern in general looks like a ton of fun for whoever gets stuck near the middle. I'd take a look like this every day of the week knowing there could be some severe weather/tornadoes attached to it to chase haha. :weenie::weenie:
eps_t850a_conus_45.png
eps_t850a_conus_57.png
 
Webber, those images will more than likely stir up some questions from Clayton here soon. Lol.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Irrespective of exactly how strong the SE US ridge is and whether it gets seriously cold in the SE US or not, this pattern in general looks like a ton of fun for whoever gets stuck near the middle. I'd take a look like this every day of the week knowing there could be some severe weather/tornadoes attached to it to chase haha. :weenie::weenie:
View attachment 3491
View attachment 3490
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I know what you mean,but why can't we get that in spring and summer instead of it just ruining our chances in winter? I'd be made if severe weather got in the way of winter storms. We get enough of that in the summer.We need a severe winter storm. Wait till then SMH.
 
Clayton Reid said:
I know what you mean,but why can't we get that in spring and summer instead of it just ruining our chances in winter? I'd be made if severe weather got in the way of winter storms. We get enough of that in the summer. Wait till then SMH.
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Summer severe weather here is pretty benign in general w/ airmass, popcorn thunderstorms, the real fun where you can get widespread supercells and large-scale tornado outbreaks begins starting around February and this time of the year and goes til about June at the latest. The February 2008 super tuesday outbreak was a ton of fun to track.
Noaa-outbreak-graphic.png
 
Clayton Reid said:
I know what you mean,but why can't we get that in spring and summer instead of it just ruining our chances in winter? I'd be made if severe weather got in the way of winter storms. We get enough of that in the summer. Wait till then SMH.
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Lol. There is just as great of a chance of severe as there is winter storms. Stop sweating the details of model runs that will keep changing.
 
Clayton Reid said:
I know what you mean,but why can't we get that in spring and summer instead of it just ruining our chances in winter? I'd be made if severe weather got in the way of winter storms. We get enough of that in the summer.We need a severe winter storm. Wait till then SMH.
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I'm honestly just trying to keep my mind more open to all kinds of weather irrespective of their preferred time of the year so I'm less disgruntled. As much as I like cold and snow, I will not turn down a big severe weather outbreak if it came my way right now.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Irrespective of exactly how strong the SE US ridge is and whether it gets seriously cold in the SE US or not, this pattern in general looks like a ton of fun for whoever gets stuck near the middle. I'd take a look like this every day of the week knowing there could be some severe weather/tornadoes attached to it to chase haha. :weenie::weenie:
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View attachment 3490
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Wow ! Fab Feb looks like Flip flop Feb there! Ouch
 
GaStorm said:
Webber, those images will more than likely stir up some questions from Clayton here soon. Lol.
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I beat you to
Webberweather53 said:
Summer severe weather here is pretty beign in general w/ airmass, popcorn thunderstorms, the real fun where you can get widespread supercell begins starting around February and this time of the year and goes til about June at the latest.
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Eric, I meant I would be mad if severe weather got in the way of winter storms! I'm not talking about the fun of severe thunderstorms. SMH. We get enough severe weather all year round all across the country is what I mean. We don't want that now. There's never any winter storms in late spring/summer in the SE so I don't want to waste these ridiculously warm February's on thunderstorms. We need a cold, stormy February again. Screw this La Nina if it turns warm and we get screwed
 
Tarheel1 said:
Wow ! Fab Feb looks like Flip flop Feb there! Ouch
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Yeah there could be a lot of wild swings given the tight gradient in temperature across the contiguous US. Even in February 1989, during what's easily among the strongest La Ninas on record, where we had 2 big storms show up in NC, temperatures soared into the low-mid 80s less than 2 days before a big storm showed up on the 17th & 18th, which was followed by yet another storm several days later.
February 17-19 1989 NC Snowmap.png
February 23-24 1989 NC Snowmap.png
 
The gfs continues to look much different vs Euro late next week with a stronger wave

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Clayton Reid said:
I beat you to
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I knew you would post right after I made that comment. Lol. You are getting pretty worked up over this lately. Maybe it's time to take a break for a bit!
 
Clayton Reid said:
This man over here talking about severe weather at a time when it could be cold and snowy when we all know we inevitably get some kind of severe weather in spring and summer! Are you kidding me?!
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Well you were talking about the ridge earlier so he is just stating what is showing on the models. If there is a ridge yes there can be severe weather. But it wouldn't surprise me if things changed quite a bit after that. Just have to be patient!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Irrespective of exactly how strong the SE US ridge is and whether it gets seriously cold in the SE US or not, this pattern in general looks like a ton of fun for whoever gets stuck near the middle. I'd take a look like this every day of the week knowing there could be some severe weather/tornadoes attached to it to chase haha. :weenie::weenie:
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View attachment 3490
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Yeah could be a few really good gradient type systems with this pattern . At least itsbnot boring

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I wish I was better at poking around weather history, but given that wunderground says that my area had snow on 2/23/89...
 
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