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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Stormlover said:
question: if the euro only goes to 240 hours..why is there a 15 day high low meteogram available for it? where are the 15 day charts then?
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I've only seen a 15 day high low for the row not the Euro OP. Plus why would we want the Euro to go past day 10. It struggles enough as is. And we see how ------ the gfs post day 5

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Stormlover said:
question: if the euro only goes to 240 hours..why is there a 15 day high low meteogram available for it? where are the 15 day charts then?
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I've never seen a 15 day Euro anywhere... wx.graphics and accuwx pro were both 10 days
 
Storm5 said:
I've only seen a 15 day high low for the row not the Euro OP. Plus why would we want the Euro to go past day 10. It struggles enough as is. And we see how ------ the gfs post day 5

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that wasn't the question..lol Edit: it is the EPS mean, and it is for precip, temps, snow, so it comes from something. If the EPS goes out to 15 days to make that, I'd like to see it..anyway..I digress....
 
Storm5 said:
I've only seen a 15 day high low for the row not the Euro OP. Plus why would we want the Euro to go past day 10. It struggles enough as is. And we see how ------ the gfs post day 5

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I agree. In my opinion, no current model should be run past 10 days. They become so worthless past that point it's not even worth looking at them.
 
Stormlover said:
that wasn't the question..lol Edit: it is the EPS mean, and it is for precip, temps, snow, so it comes from something. If the EPS goes out to 15 days to make that, I'd like to see it..anyway..I digress....
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It comes from the Euro control. The Euro runs twice daily out to 240hrs, each of those runs are paired with a control run, which is ran at lower resolution (to reduce noise - kinda like controlling for a butterfly effect). That control run is ran out to 15 days. The control run is then ran 50 more times (each of these runs are adjusted for slightly differing initial conditions to control for errors in initialization of the operational/control), the 50 runs are then averaged together to give you the EPS mean temperature, precip, etc. which is what you see for a 15 day Euro forecast. This mean can too, be wrong, because it all stems from that one control...but it is useful in determining whether or not the operational run is an outlier, among other things. LR 10-15 day models are very useful, it just depends on how you use them. They’re not good for mesoscale data (2mT for instance) unless there is very little spread in the ensemble members for a specific date or dates, which tells you statistically those temperatures are very likely to happen.

For example, there’s 30 degree spread for highs and lows for Raleigh Feb 5-11 (Day 10-15) and that’s only for the inner quartile range (big tall green boxes). The ensemble members actually stretch from 75 to 20F for the High (I know, crazy) on Feb 9, with a IQR of 40-66 and a mean of 52 or so. The mean can give you an idea, but isn’t useful in this case.

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FWIW, and I know nobody really cares, but just saw the winter weather specialist on TWC just showed maps and jet stream and said this cold outbreak coming up will be a different trajectory tha the January shots and won't make it to the gulf coast and they showed a map with high temps never going below 50s South of KY, through the 17th
 
Storm5 said:
Yeah the mjo in phase 7 supports the idea of the cold dumping into the west with a corresponding SER. Hopefully as many have mentioned in this thread , phase 8 will slowly kick things to the east

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IMHO, that's what CPC is more or less latching on to for now ...
sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif
 
Tarheel1 said:
FWIW, and I know nobody really cares, but just saw the winter weather specialist on TWC just showed maps and jet stream and said this cold outbreak coming up will be a different trajectory tha the January shots and won't make it to the gulf coast and they showed a map with high temps never going below 50s South of KY, through the 17th
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It just doesn't make sense that with all of that cold air lurking, that the cold air never gets here at all. Yes, I could see it taking it's sweet ole time getting here, but it usually eventually arrives.
 
I don't know what people are seeing,but from what I'm seeing with the MJO going to a strong phase 7 and model trends,the Southeast may stay warm for most of February with the cold staying west of the Appalachian mountains.Not completely sure yet,but I'm not liking the trends.
 
Michael21 said:
I don't know what people are seeing,but from what I'm seeing with the MJO going to a strong phase 7 and model trends,the Southeast may stay warm for most of February with the cold staying west of the Appalachian mountains.Not completely sure yet,but I'm not liking the trends.
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But we have the PNA and the AO where we want it
 
pcbjr said:
I do not mean this in any negative way; look at the forecast that Webb posted and count the dots from today ... it'll give you a pretty good indication ... :cool:
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I gotcha I just wasn't sure exactly what those were so I didn't want to look at it wrong
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
That looks to be for Feb 4th I wasn't and it seems most on here weren't expecting any cold or anything like that until maybe the second week
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Yeah, no real cold locked in to the SE before the 20th. March is gonna rock though!
 
Lol day 9 GFS has a ridge and CMC a trough in the SE. hard to trust any model after day 7 with upcoming pattern. My money is on the cold, winter patterns tend to repeat and we’ve since this a lot already folks.
 
Again, we need to get that storm or possibly wave at day 6/7 out of the way before making any future conclusions...
 
Truly not sure the GFS knows what the heck it's doing. I'm going to be lazy and not look at H5 here, but it has a massive storm on the surface that takes from about 192 to 336 to develop and then go away.
 
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