• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

We're definitely getting BN cold in early to mid Feb.. for how long, and exactly when, and how much mystery meat throws up in the Southern stream is yet to be determined.
 
Arcc said:
Read H5 people, don't look the surface temp maps or they will drive you crazy.
Click to expand...

Yup

Need to think step down as far as temps not a mother of all cold shots and lock in. As I have mentioned think Dec into January style pattern... Just breathe

... Carry on


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Let’s see where we are at in 5 to 7 days before anyone gets to worried about what the upcoming pattern will or won’t do.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Well TWC just showed how the US goes zonal for first 2 weeks in February, looked like some of the op runs have been showing, with extreme cold hugging the Canada border! :(
 
Tarheel1 said:
Well TWC just showed how the US goes zonal for first 2 weeks in February, looked like some of the op runs have been showing, with extreme cold hugging the Canada border! :(
Click to expand...
Yeah if we get stuck in a zonal flow it's going to be like threading a needle in a wind tunnel trying to get some snow around here
 
Please stop looking at warm maps and freaking out. The Ensembles will struggle on 2mT’s and change very often outside of Day 10. That’s mesoscale data that a macro scale output is trying to translate. Think overall picture here! There are so many pros and little if any cons to this February setup.

Ensembles are useless, even at 500mb, during large pattern changes and days 13-15 which I see many posting here. You have to remember how ensembles are generated (off the control run of the Op ran at lower resolution 20x over for the GEFS and 50x over for the EPS) if the control runs are wonky, well, there goes the entire ensemble suite.

Threats are going to come roaring in the first week of feb.

*fixed some typos...dang iPhone keyboard!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
GFS is really honking for the beginning of February. We'll see. Too far away now to take specifics seriously.
 
Looks as if theirs a lot of moisture flying around throughout and the gulf looks to be going too all we need is some cold and we could have a serious winter storm. Ik it's long range but it's really gets ya a little hyped
 
Nobody knows what will happen. We could end up with a similar pattern to Dec with the SE ridge being stubborn, which is consistent with La Niña tendencies, especially in February, and is what model consensus is suggesting MAY happen. But that also may make it easier for northern/well inland locations to have a winter storm threat at some point.
 
Today's GEFS based indices looking out toward the 10-14 day period: More +NAO vs yesterday but still maintaining a pretty solid +PNA and a good lean toward -AO even after adjusting for the GEFS -AO bias. As long as we have the +PNA along with at least a modest
-AO, the SE should at least still be in or near the battlezone with quite cold air not too far away should the SE ridge be stubborn as happened in December. That tells me winter storm(s) threat quite possible in or near the inland SE.
 
GaWx said:
Nobody knows what will happen. We could end up with a similar pattern to Dec with the SE ridge being stubborn, which is consistent with La Niña tendencies, especially in February, and is what model consensus is suggesting MAY happen. But that also may make it easier for northern/well inland locations to have a winter storm threat at some point.
Click to expand...
I thought we didn't have a SE ridge in December I thought it showed up on the long range and then got beaten back
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
I thought we didn't have a SE ridge in December I thought it showed up on the long range and then got beaten back
Click to expand...
I think the models finally killed it around Christmas after it had been showing up every model run 300+ hours out. Christmas looked like it would torch then when it finally came temperatures fell during the day when Santa clause finally came. Back and forth just like we're seeing now in the LE
 
GaWx said:
i'm talking about the month as a whole. This is consistent with most of the SE being slightly warmer than normal (RDU was an exception) vs it being cold in the NE and northeastern Midwest:

View attachment 3426
Click to expand...
Wow I wouldn't of thought we were above normal. Guess 2 years of torching will do that to you.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top