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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

GaWx said:
i'm talking about the month as a whole. This is consistent with most of the SE being slightly warmer than normal (RDU was an exception) vs it being cold in the NE and northeastern Midwest:

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I gotcha. The cold days seem to overshadow the warm days sometimes. I honestly thought we were right around average most of December
 
GaWx said:
i'm talking about the month as a whole. This is consistent with most of the SE being slightly warmer than normal (RDU was an exception) vs it being cold in the NE and northeastern Midwest:

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What's crazy only 6-8 days in December I believe (for most) is what caused the normal to slightly above normal for the month... Rest of the month was slightly below or well below normal...

Same gonna be for January but I think most of us will be below normal on average. Before this latest little warm spell for the month of Jan for central and N AL was 6-9 degrees below normal! That said think we could see -2 to -4 for my area at least


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Nice cold chasing moisture setup on the 12z gfs. That could work for those west of the mountains. Doesn't typically work east of there.
prateptype_cat.conus.png
 
I really think February's gonna be a good month especially if we get the gulf really involved cause it's already produced a storm that dropped a foot in north Georgia and turned a clipper/ hybrid clipper into something for Georgia. It just hasn't been able to get it in full force since December in my opinion
 
GaWx said:
i'm talking about the month as a whole. This is consistent with most of the SE being slightly warmer than normal (RDU was an exception) vs it being cold in the NE and northeastern Midwest:

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I can see us being a bit above normal because honestly aside from the early dec snow and cold, there wasn’t much else to write home about. It was definitely cold at times though.


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Wow what a classic Maritime Continent MJO pulse. The upper level anticyclone (shown here using stream function which shows the component of the flow that's purely rotational) and downstream trough near and just north of Japan initiated primarily by geostrophic adjustment and downstream development from RW dispersion respectively, are right where you'd expect it to be.
Screen Shot 2018-01-25 at 1.01.41 PM.png
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Webberweather53 said:
Wow what a classic Maritime Continent MJO pulse. The upper level anticyclone (shown here using stream function which shows the component of the flow that's purely rotational) and downstream trough near and just north of Japan initiated primarily by geostrophic adjustment and downstream development from RW dispersion respectively, are right where you'd expect it to be.
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Is this good for us?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Wow what a classic Maritime Continent MJO pulse. The upper level anticyclone (shown here using stream function which shows the component of the flow that's purely rotational) and downstream trough near and just north of Japan initiated primarily by geostrophic adjustment and downstream development from RW dispersion respectively, are right where you'd expect it to be.
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Why are these graphics so bad. They look like the daily drawings my toddler brings home from school. We should create better graphics

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1300m said:
Here's what the pattern will likely generally evolve from and into by the second half of February, assuming the MJO continues on as predicted. I am barely even looking at NWP guidance at this point.

FebruaryPhase7gt1500mb.gif

FebruaryPhase8all500mb.gif



ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif
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Yesh, doesn't seem like the models are much help at this point, but it's hard to just be patient and wait for a storm, making it more difficult not to take note of them. The MO doesn't really tell much about how cold it's gonna get or how stormy. I know everybody keeps saying not to look for a storm and not pay attention to warm maps, but it's still hard for me at least. Especially when you look at H5, I don't think know it really tells you that much about how cold it's gonna be or if it'll be cold enough.
 
What is the PNA outlook for Feb? If still +PNA, it might not matter if we are cold.
 
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