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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

GeorgiaGirl said:
Truly not sure the GFS knows what the heck it's doing. I'm going to be lazy and not look at H5 here, but it has a massive storm on the surface that takes from about 192 to 336 to develop and then go away.
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Well, truncation is what does it I think. Not a bad look...
gfs_z500_vort_us_37.png

...until you see the massive monster SER.
gfs_z500a_us_42.png

I highly doubt the SER is legitimate especially since we keep seeing it trend away, and is likely only being produced due to the idea of a La Nina, but we have yet to see it show up. The models could decide to keep annoying us the remainder of winter with this, and actually trend to verification and verify, or it could keep putting it off as it has so far. In addition, its not consistent out here on the GFS plus its the GFS LR.
 
ForsythSnow said:
...until you see the massive monster SER.
gfs_z500a_us_42.png

I highly doubt the SER is legitimate especially since we keep seeing it trend away, and is likely only being produced due to the idea of a La Nina, but we have yet to see it show up. The models could decide to keep annoying us the remainder of winter with this, and actually trend to verification and verify, or it could keep putting it off as it has so far. In addition, its not consistent out here on the GFS plus its the GFS LR.
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That is not the +PNA look we want ... something is amiss ...
 
pcbjr said:
That is not the +PNA look we want ... something is amiss ...
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Yeah, what happened is I think the models backed off from the good +PNA that we saw earlier. I didn't look at all of them but on one I saw it went back to a -PNA.

But considering what has happened so far, I too don't buy an intense SE ridge.
 
Michael21 said:
Well,the 12Z Gfs is trending towards a -PNA with a southeast ridge.
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That’s one operational model run. That’s not a trend. Ensembles are important especially during significant pattern changes with big players on the table. There’s no point picking a single time frame in the Op GFS and thinking it’s either negative or positive. Take a look at these 3 models both valid same time period (0z 2/5) from the 00z runs:

63e87488efa94e5ec0e358a5b2d8fe29.jpg

b479edab679c08f9735fd47c7ca9face.jpg

12941e1eaaee1d74a649f4282e93caf9.jpg


Ironically the GEM might be the most “right” now. This gif was from a previous post and this is how I expected things to pan out if we want cold and stormy. Notice the ridging moved to the favorable area and there’s toughing over Scandinavia. That all but demands a trough in the east.



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Jon said:
That’s one operational model run. That’s not a trend. Ensembles are important especially during significant pattern changes with big players on the table. There’s no point picking a single time frame in the Op GFS and thinking it’s either negative or positive. Take a look at these 3 models both valid same time period (0z 2/5) from the 00z runs:

63e87488efa94e5ec0e358a5b2d8fe29.jpg

b479edab679c08f9735fd47c7ca9face.jpg

12941e1eaaee1d74a649f4282e93caf9.jpg


Ironically the GEM might be the most “right” now. This gif was from a previous post and this is how I expected things to pan out if we want cold and stormy. Notice the ridging moved to the favorable area and there’s toughing over Scandinavia. That all but demands a trough in the east.



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The 12Z GEM model didn't look as good as it develops a negative PNA towards the end of the run with riding developing in the south.gem_z500a_namer_35.png gem_z500a_namer_39.png gem_z500a_namer_41.png
 
Stormlover said:
Yep, that had to be a trolling comment. Way over the top for sure.
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Lord...there you go again. A grown man continuously accusing people of trolling or being a troll on a weather forum. SMH. Thats just as, or more, annoying than the people you are calling out. If you don't like what someone says, block them, stop whining.
 
Dang, the Canadian just went from massive winter storm in Tennessee and Ohio Valley to nothing at all really at 12z. Hopefully the European will look better. GFS still looks good, but has definetley trended a little down from a few days ago.
 
I don't see the SER ever being that strong, the trend this winter has for it to fade the closer we get to the actual timeframe.
 
snowvol said:
I don't see the SER ever being that strong, the trend this winter has for it to fade the closer we get to the actual timeframe.
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La Ninas during the month of February trends to favor a Southeast ridge with a west coast trough and combine that with the MJO being at a strong phase 7,I see the Southeast ridge gets strong enough to prevent cold from going east of the Appalachian Mountains until Late February atleast. Maybe I could be wrong and models could start trending colder with less Southeast ridging,but as of now,I don't see it.
 
Michael21 said:
La Ninas during the month of February trends to favor a Southeast ridge with a west coast trough and combine that with the MJO being at a strong phase 7,I see the Southeast ridge gets strong enough to prevent cold from going east of the Appalachian Mountains until Late February atleast. Maybe I could be wrong and models could start trending colder with less Southeast ridging,but as of now,I don't see it.
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A lot of the models have trended colder up until this run if I am correct
 
Kylo said:
Is that bad? Seems like after day 10 the MJO will be more favorable so makes sense.
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It's more that the GFS is really bad beyond truncation and each hour you go beyond it, the larger the error. I just look at beyond 240 for major H5 trends or laughs. So far, there is nothing noticeable in terms of trends, only flip flopping.
 
While fun to look at, operational models start to drastically lose accuracy after 4-5 days. This is a case of the obvious ridge continually showing up, and kicking the colder air can down the road into late February, into March.

I'm no longer seeing any signs of a week 1-3 winter Storm for the deep South (I-20, south).
 
ForsythSnow said:
It's more that the GFS is really bad beyond truncation and each hour you go beyond it, the larger the error. I just look at beyond 240 for major H5 trends or laughs. So far, there is nothing noticeable in terms of trends, only flip flopping.
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The GFS is bad in the extended but the GEFS is solid. It has been sliding the ridge in the west to +PNA position around Feb 7-8. It has done this several runs in a row now. The 12z run of the Canadian Enembles support this too.
 
Michael21 said:
The 12Z GEM model didn't look as good as it develops a negative PNA towards the end of the run with riding developing in the south.View attachment 3517 View attachment 3518 View attachment 3519
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Completely fine with me. I think you missed my point. I expect the pattern to develop eventually close to what the 00z GEM showed and looking at ANY operational model right now for that period is completely useless.


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whatalife said:
The 12z EPS continue the trend of looking colder post day 10.


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That's the early part of the 1st week of February ... 'Twas that way in 1899 ... but that is as far as I'll go in an analogy ... ;)
However, can you imagine what this board would have looked like if we were alive and there was internet then ... late Jan, early Feb 1899 AN and a possible snow coming ... LOL ... :eek:
 

Attachments

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pcbjr said:
That's the early part of the 1st week of February ... 'Twas that way in 1899 ... but that is as far as I'll go in an analogy ... ;)
However, can you imagine what this board would have looked like if we were alive and there was internet then ... late Jan, early Feb 1899 AN and a possible snow coming ... LOL ... :eek:
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Nice. Thanks Phil.


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with no human input today, this is just due to the models not seeing the cold plunge through the southeast yet..looks about the same on the 8-14 day also. Will be interesting to see how it looks Monday when humans make it
610temp.new.gif
 
Jon said:
Completely fine with me. I think you missed my point. I expect the pattern to develop eventually close to what the 00z GEM showed and looking at ANY operational model right now for that period is completely useless.


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Correct me if I'm wrong, but about 7-10 days from the January arctic blast, a lot of the op runs were showing horrible runs with dominant SE ridge, but about once or twice a cycle, they would show a blockbuster cold shot!? Most of these model runs are just showing SE ridge and cold not making it to the SE?
 
We must remember that to say this is a La Nina so..... is WAY too broad a brush to paint on the weather. A strong La Nina would argue strongly for a warm and dry winter. This winter has been anything but that. A weak La Nina (which this is) can produce a variety of outcomes. One being cold and snowy (which we have seen). To have an expectation for February based on "this is a La Nina" is likely to be about as accurate as a coin flip.
Another thing to beware of is relying too heavily on one index. MJO looks to get in favorable position for us in February, but I have seen many winter expectations for winter weather based strongly a favorable MJO outlook crash and burn. My confidence in a solid February is based on a combination of strong signals for -EPO, +PNA, -AO as we head into February. That combined with the MJO outlook and the likelihood of there being a ton of artic air on our side of the globe has me very optimistic for us to see more cold and snow before the winter is over.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Correct me if I'm wrong, but about 7-10 days from the January arctic blast, a lot of the op runs were showing horrible runs with dominant SE ridge, but about once or twice a cycle, they would show a blockbuster cold shot!? Most of these model runs are just showing SE ridge and cold not making it to the SE?
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Another problem is people are using the 500mb anomaly charts and assuming red is ridging when in actuality it isnt.
 
Just broad brushing it (comparing the actual ridge/trough maps), the Happy Hour run looks a bit better ridge wise.
 
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