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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

GaWx said:
What do you mean by this about a +PNA?
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Am I misreading this?
A pattern of higher-than-average pressure in the vicinity of Hawai'i and over the mountainous region of western North America, and lower-than-average pressure south of Alaska and over the southeastern United States defines the positive phase of PNA. This pressure pattern enhances the strength of the mid-latitude jet stream as it moves over the Pacific Ocean from eastern Asia. This situation increases the likelihood of above-average temperatures over western Canada and the extreme western states of the U.S., and below-average temperatures across south-central and southeastern states. In winter, the positive phase is also associated with below-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and across the eastern half of the United States. - https://www.climate.gov/news-featur...ability-pacific-north-american-teleconnection
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The upcoming pattern looks good to me. I don’t think we want cold like we had in late December/ early January unless we get a big storm during the transition from warmer to colder. When we were super cold it seemed everything was suppressed until we warmed up a little. I feel we have a better chance at snow when our temps are up and down. We only need one more big storm to verify to make this already great winter even greater.
 
At what point do We consider this a possibility where the SE ridge actually verifies unlike in January . People keep saying not to worry and this and that but SE ridge fits the Nina pattern for February
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Storm5 said:
At what point do We consider this a possibility where the SE ridge actually verified unlike in January . People keep saying not to worry and this and that but SE ridge fits the Nina pattern for February
3f550be5f690f2bbe25cebbe595eadf5.jpg



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:(
 
Storm5 said:
At what point do We consider this a possibility where the SE ridge actually verifies unlike in January . People keep saying not to worry and this and that but SE ridge fits the Nina pattern for February
3f550be5f690f2bbe25cebbe595eadf5.jpg



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2355113b80ad89e20f3695ca224b6603.jpg
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I thought you were on the cold and stormy side? Why the change all of a sudden ? But I feel you, we may not get any more chances. That is what I was afraid of
 
Storm5 said:
At what point do We consider this a possibility where the SE ridge actually verifies unlike in January . People keep saying not to worry and this and that but SE ridge fits the Nina pattern for February
3f550be5f690f2bbe25cebbe595eadf5.jpg



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2355113b80ad89e20f3695ca224b6603.jpg
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Might be what the CPC is looking at and latching on to ...

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Clayton Reid said:
I thought you were on the cold and stormy side? Why the change all of a sudden ? But I feel you, we may not get any more chances. That is what I was afraid of
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I haven't changed I'm simply asking a question . Obviously this is a step down pattern with cold shots then moderation followed by more cold shots , wont be as cold ( sustained wise ) as the cold in January. But , we can't just ignore the possibility of the SE ridge finally showing up. A SER in February fits the Nina pattern as Webber mentioned months ago . Keep reading everywhere people saying don't worry the models and ensembles will correct .

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SCweather said:
IF we were to wiff on the rest of Winter, it would seem like it would be sort of like 2011. Started Winter off with a bang. We had that day after Christmas Winterstorm in 2010 then 2 weeks later into 2011 we had the Winter storm in January. After that, I remember it being pretty average to above average the rest of Winter besides the Outerbanks snowstorm in Mid January. Would seem like we have atleast a couple chances left in the tank for February. I'm hoping for the best atleast down here in the Columbia area where we haven't caught the Winter love so far this Winter.
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It really started to warm up after Feb 15 in 2011. We had a snowfall around the 2nd week of Feb in 2011.
 
Storm5 said:
At what point do We consider this a possibility where the SE ridge actually verifies unlike in January . People keep saying not to worry and this and that but SE ridge fits the Nina pattern for February
3f550be5f690f2bbe25cebbe595eadf5.jpg



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2355113b80ad89e20f3695ca224b6603.jpg
Click to expand...
It may end up like that but I feel the end of the month into march will be cold but I could be wrong. Also just going off what others have said all the other symbols seem to line up for cold and stormy but the models don't. It's also hard to trust the models when they've been all over the place this year
 
Storm5 said:
I haven't changed I'm simply asking a question . Obviously this is a step down pattern with cold shots then moderation followed by more cold shots , wont be as cold ( sustained wise ) as the cold in January. But , we can't just ignore the possibility of the SE ridge finally showing up. A SER in February fits the Nina pattern as Webber mentioned months ago . Keep reading everywhere people saying don't worry the models and ensembles will correct .

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Very well reasoned.
A lot of this winter should not have even happened, "by the books".
Pragmatism and likelihoods should not give way to whimsy looking forward.
This Curmudgeon would love one round of winter to yet defy the odds in his back yard.
If it happens, great.
But if not (and likely not), it's been a long, strange and fun trip already this winter.
:cool:
 
Storm5 said:
I haven't changed I'm simply asking a question . Obviously this is a step down pattern with cold shots then moderation followed by more cold shots , wont be as cold ( sustained wise ) as the cold in January. But , we can't just ignore the possibility of the SE ridge finally showing up. A SER in February fits the Nina pattern as Webber mentioned months ago . Keep reading everywhere people saying don't worry the models and ensembles will correct .

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Maybe, they will correct. I remember Webber mentioning The tendency for a February warmth, but he also mentioned that in this kind of pattern, models tend to oversell the SE ridge. I hope the SE ridge doesn't get in our way. Otherwise, winter is over.
 
1300m said:
It fits phase 7 MJO February climo too like I posted earlier. Quite possible we wait until mid-February before we get into the pattern folks are looking for. At this point, I myself am not looking for any sort of decent sustained pattern before 2/10 to 2/15.
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Judah Cohen mentioned it could be early February with all the Stratosphere warming about to occur. I'd say it gets sustained after 2/5. I worry about mid February though. It just always seems to warm up to fast before a storm in that time period where we get mostly rain. Who knows if we get mid February's like 2010, 2014, etc. Again? That's what scares me. It may not happen like those years
 
The SER was no match for the Arctic air in early January. I don't expect this to be any different
 
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