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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

1300m said:
It fits phase 7 MJO February climo too like I posted earlier. Quite possible we wait until mid-February before we get into the pattern folks are looking for. At this point, I myself am not looking for any sort of decent sustained pattern before 2/10 to 2/15.
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I'd be content with anything but cold rain. A severe weather outbreak on the warm side of the jet in the earlier portion of the month or a big snow/ice storm on the cold side towards mid-month (or both :):weenie:) is fine by me, just don't want what's in between lol.
 
GaStorm said:
Does this mean a greater chance for an active STJ?
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Webberweather53 said:
The MJO on the GFS & CFS are off the charts. Yes literally off the charts. The only 2 times I pay attention to the GFS or CFS's MJO forecast is when it agrees with the European on general propagation (check*) and/or its initializing a strong MJO event in the Maritime Continent and western Pacific (check*). This is one of those few times while I'll give either model some legitimate consideration especially given that the Euro has been too weak w/ the MJO of late especially before the pulse reached the Maritime Continent (i.e. the "barrier effect"). If we even see a compromise of the Euro & GFS MJO forecast, the subtropical jet is going to receive a monster shot in the arm. You don't see MJO events near or above 2 sigma all that often at this time of the year and it could have implications on longer term ENSO behavior given how well this is timed w/ the seasonal cycle. If you want to wake up the subtropical jet in a La Nina winter this is how you do it.


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1. The GFS is so notorious for way overdoing the MJO amplitude. This forecast is for such a strong amplitude (4) vs the EPS (2.5) that I feel confident that it will verify way weaker than 4. My guess is that it will peak near 2.5-3.

2. The bad thing about a very strong MJO is that that very strong subtropical feed could lead to warmer air here in the SE US. That's why MDA feels a strong MJO would likely be warmer than a weaker one this winter. I'm going to try to get some time to look at KATL and see what were their temperature anomalies when the MJO was very strong during Nov-Mar..say 3+.
 
GaWx said:
1. The GFS is so notorious for way overdoing the MJO amplitude. This forecast is for such a strong amplitude (4) vs the EPS (2.5) that I feel confident that it will verify way weaker than 4. My guess is that it will peak near 2.5-3.

2. The bad thing about a very strong MJO is that that very strong subtropical feed could lead to warmer air here in the SE US. That's why MDA feels a strong MJO would likely be warmer than a weaker one this winter. I'm going to try to get some time to look at KATL and see what were their temperature anomalies when the MJO was very strong during Nov-Mar..say 3+.
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Maybe this will be a case where arctic air can overcome that? I remember when you showed examples of the cold being more dominant in the lower end of the circle so hopefully it won't get out of control.
 
GaWx said:
1. The GFS is so notorious for way overdoing the MJO amplitude. This forecast is for such a strong amplitude (4) vs the EPS (2.5) that I feel confident that it will verify way weaker than 4. My guess is that it will peak near 2.5-3.

2. The bad thing about a very strong MJO is that that very strong subtropical feed could lead to warmer air here in the SE US. That's why MDA feels a strong MJO would likely be warmer than a weaker one this winter. I'm going to try to get some time to look at KATL and see what were their temperature anomalies when the MJO was very strong during Nov-Mar..say 3+.
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The EPS didn't even have the MJO making it much above 1.5 a few days ago and several days prior it kept the MJO in the COD before it had a chance to cross into phase 7 & 8, it's clearly moving the goal posts in favor of the GFS. According to Kim (2014), the EPS has a profound dampening bias w/ the MJO in the Pacific (which is even more profound than the CFS/GFS's over amplification biases there. Like I explained earlier this one of the few and rare instances I'd give the GFS credence, the ECMWF has been playing catch up for the past few weeks if you've been following the daily forecasts...
MJO Amplitude Observed, EPS, & CFSv2.png


The sample size of extraordinary large MJO events is rather small and few have actually discussed why the surface temperature anomalies would be warmer with a more intense MJO event, it may be an artifact in the data. Also, a stronger subtropical jet doesn't necessarily mean it automatically gets warmer here either, it often also favors the storm track being suppressed further to the south w/ appreciable CAA to boot as storm systems go by to our south with a very stout source region lurking over the northern tier and Canada thanks to the cross-polar flow induced by the Pacific/NE Eurasia ridge in the preceding weeks.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The EPS didn't even have the MJO making it much above 1.5 a few days ago and several days prior it kept the MJO in the COD before it had a chance to cross into phase 7 & 8, it's clearly moving the goal posts in favor of the GFS. According to Kim (2014), the EPS has a profound dampening bias w/ the MJO in the Pacific (which is even more profound than the CFS/GFS's over amplification biases there. Like I explained earlier this one of the few and rare instances I'd give the GFS credence, the ECMWF has been playing catch up for the past few weeks if you've been following the daily forecasts...
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The sample size of extraordinary large MJO events is rather small and few have actually discussed why the surface temperature anomalies would be warmer with a more intense MJO event, it may be an artifact in the data. Also, a stronger subtropical jet doesn't necessarily mean it automatically gets warmer here either, it often also favors the storm track being suppressed further to the south w/ appreciable CAA to boot as storm systems go by to our south with a very stout source region lurking over the northern tier and Canada thanks to the cross-polar flow induced by the Pacific/NE Eurasia ridge in the preceding weeks.
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Here's the same data but now using the RMM phase space diagram. The EPS usually sucks w/ MJO events initialized in phase 5 and is usually way underdone.
Screen Shot 2018-01-25 at 5.55.15 PM.png

Here's what the Euro monthly had a few days ago...
EMON_phase_51m_small.gif

Here's the latest Euro MJO forecast just a couple days later. Consistent w/ Kim et al's (2014) research, the European model is moving the goalposts in favor of a bigger MJO event in the western Pacific and the forecasted MJO event amplitude has increased over 1 sigma in the past couple days and it's likely not done adjusting either. (Even though these models aren't technically exactly the same, the model shown in the lowermost picture produced a similar forecast as the one depicted directly above)
ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small.gif
 
Well, I just booked a cabin in Gatlinburg for a 3 day weekend next weekend from Thursday-Sunday. I am hoping the GFS keeps showing what it's showing for a nice snow up in the mountains. The cabin is right around 3,000 feet and I am already excited. The wife is looking forward to it too. GFS has been showing some nice snow for Tennessee, so hopefully it continues.
 
Question since it looks like we're gonna be in a +PNA and maybe a off the charts MJO. If the +PNA brings the cold if I'm correct their and the abnormally high MJO brings in warmth sometime but it could get the southern jet going. Couldn't the PNA counteract the warmth from the MJO and keep us colder while the MJO really gets the southern jet rolling? Just a thought I was thinking
 
Storm5 said:
Whos setting up for disappointment??? I'm simply asking questions. I have no expectations at all

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No one individually but...

Tendency at least I think a few are trying to rush the cold air in quicker and maybe not even meaning too but the fantasy snow model map postings 250hr+ and here comes the cold. Some and especially new folks just learning may not know it's pure fantasy maps being posted. You can see the trend on the board post go up, can even see the excitement build and oooh looking good...Then last 24hrs post drop off, posts turn more serious, where's the cold air, no snow, it's warm, here comes the ridge, doubt creeps in no denying that LoL. Then like clock work it turns to worry and postings of doubt begin to take over. Kinda fun to watch at times LoL. We have some very good posters trying to understand and lay this out for others soaking up the knowledge but the click bait snow maps are the devil and gets folks worked up a little too much and expectations go through the roof.
 
Meanwhile the gfs continues to say get your snow sleds ready next weekend Tennessee. Only a week away so what could possibly go wrong :)

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Edit: I guess this is the type of image that extreme weather is referring to. I think most on here know not get thier expectations up to high for something a week out. I know I use to do it when I first moved here and didn’t know jack about weather. I thought if the weather channel showed snow in the forecast 7 days from now that I’d get snow. It took me a long time to learn not to get my hopes up over the clown maps but the last 3 or 4 years I’ve gotten much better.
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Rain Cold said:
I hope it doesn’t take till the end of Feb to work into the favorable phases.
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It probably won't imo. If there's anything to take away from this MJO event is if it's at least as strong as the Euro currently depicts, we can probably kiss this La Nina goodbye (at least for a while if intraseasonal forcing happens to destructively interfere w/ ENSO yet again later in spring). We knew going into a winter like this w/ an easterly QBO (which decreases the upper tropospheric static stability, climatological upper level westerly wind shear in the lower stratosphere, and increases the intensity of the winter hemisphere's planetary waves) that the MJO would be more active than normal and on-equatorial convection would be favored. An MJO pulse like this in February & March rolling across the central Pacific will inflict a lot of damage on our La Nina especially since there's already a downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave taking some punch out of the anomalous upwelling pool in the east Pacific.
u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif
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Storm5 said:
Well the weeklies look to keep the SER in play well into February . Looks like a colder pattern towards the end of February into March

#groundtemps
#sunangle

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Yeah I was about to say that. Grit posted about it on the other board. Sounds like a buffet of sucktitude that changes maybe a bit for the better once we get into the time of year when it becomes really hard to snow. SMH.
 
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