Clayton Reid
Member
That's good but unless it freezes over it really isn't a big deal. Almost as If it never snowed
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Freezing Ferocious February
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Xtreme Weather
Member
Wrong part of the country for this to happen 95% of the time Deep South snow gone in 2-3 days unless you in elevated portions of the App Mountain's
Let's get those dark blue and purple 2m temp anomalies at the beginning of March so instead of 60 I can sit at a comfortable 50 while I get rained on 
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Feb 2014 was more a memorable historic ice storm in a lot of deep south areas.
Still think this might be a case like late December in which models correct as we get closer but honestly, I'm cool with the SE ridge not being completely obliterated this time. Maybe it means that I myself have no more chances at snow, but for the first time ever, it being bone dry was painful to one of my hands (even if I put lotion on it).
I don’t really have too many major problems with the 18z GFS from 192 on.
Kylo
Member
Praying we get a repeat of what happened in March 2014 and March 2015 when the MJO was moderate amplitude 8-1-2. Maybe we can see something like this from February 15 into early March. Cant recall the winter storms in the southeast during these periods though.
Kylo
Member
February - March 1978 was strong amplitude MJO 8-1-2-3.
Raleigh had a ~5” snowfall Feb 25-26 and nothing in March of 2015. There was nothing remarkable in Raleigh in March of 2014. Early Feb featured a moderate snow. That’s about it.
Round Oak Weather
Member
just like some of the other on the forum have said it's gonna change what we see today maybe changed tmrw. I mean two day ago I was like it's gonna get cold by mid febuary now it's gotten moved back further. It's gonna chance now we just watch and see if it's better or if it's worse
All of them brought major snow to AL. If you are talking deep south as in Montgomery area and southward, those are super rare in any case.
olhausen
Member
It can be but you have to move to Minnesota.
Deep South to me is south of I-20. I consider anything between I-20 and I-40 to be midsouth.
Ron Burgundy
Member
Well, Robert @ WxSouth sure seems confident in the cold:
“The short range continues to be dull, nice, but not that interesting. All the Wintery stuff lay out in February. All the indices MJO, AO, PNA, and modost importantly, a big shift of the cold air in Russia coming to North America, all beginning next week. It will take a while to get to the Southeast, but already I'm eyeing the Tennessee Valley next Friday or so for that first major cold front to have snow behind it possibly from the mountains, west. Then things get very interesting from then on, as a tall west Ridge goes up and up, keeping the Cold Air trapped in North America, with a series of systems undercutting the bowl shaped American Trough as we head through February.
Don't buy bread or milk yet--but if you're a business owner or Apartment manager, I would go out and get as much Ice Melt as you can get your hands on while the weather is still nice. Odds are , you'll need it from east TX/ OK due east across the Deep South and MidAtlantic in February.”
“The short range continues to be dull, nice, but not that interesting. All the Wintery stuff lay out in February. All the indices MJO, AO, PNA, and modost importantly, a big shift of the cold air in Russia coming to North America, all beginning next week. It will take a while to get to the Southeast, but already I'm eyeing the Tennessee Valley next Friday or so for that first major cold front to have snow behind it possibly from the mountains, west. Then things get very interesting from then on, as a tall west Ridge goes up and up, keeping the Cold Air trapped in North America, with a series of systems undercutting the bowl shaped American Trough as we head through February.
Don't buy bread or milk yet--but if you're a business owner or Apartment manager, I would go out and get as much Ice Melt as you can get your hands on while the weather is still nice. Odds are , you'll need it from east TX/ OK due east across the Deep South and MidAtlantic in February.”
My brand new research on the 18 very strong MJO events since 1975
1. Dec-Mar MJO mag 3+: 18 events totaling 213 days (I include all surrounding days with MJO magnitude of 2.5+ as a single event)
Facts about these 18 events at ATL:
- 1 MB, 2 B, 5 N, 6 A, 4 MA:
-8, -6, -3, -1, -1, -1, +1, +1, +3, +3, +4, +6, +7, +7, +8, +9, +11, +14
- 213 days averaged 2.4 warmer than normal
- The 3 B to MB were in 2/1978, 3/1981, and 1-2/1985. We've had 15 events since and all were near N (5) or A/MA (10)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. Dec.-Mar MJO mag 3+ events that included phase 7: 9 events totaling 100 days
Facts about these 9 events at ATL:
- 1 MB, 2 N, 2 A, 4 MA: -6, -1, +1, +7, +7, +8, +9, +11, +14
- 100 days averaged 5.7 warmer than normal
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3. Dec-Mar MJO mag 3.5+ events: 7 events totaling 119 days
Facts about these 7 events at ATL:
- 1 B, 3 N, 2 A, 1 MA: -6, -1, -1, -1, +7, +7, +11
- 119 days averaged 2.0 warmer than normal
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4. Dec-Mar MJO mag 3.5+ events that included phase 7: 4 events totaling 66 days
Facts about these 4 events at ATL:
- 1 N, 2 A, 1 MA: -1, +7, +7, +11
- 66 days averaged 6.0 warmer than normal
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conclusion: No matter which way I look at it, although a few have been cold in the SE US and the next one could be cold, the stats show that having a very strong MJO, itself, in Dec-Mar without considering other indices doesn't favor cold over warm in the SE. If anything, it favors warm over cold. This is consistent with my prior research as well as that from MDA.
Last edited:
Kylo
Member
Great analysis! Is this for just phase 8-1-2 MJO events? Or are you looking at any phase of the MJO that happened to be very strong?
Thank you! If you look back at my post, you'll see that parts 2 and 4 were required to include phase 7 because that's where the very strong peak is progged by the GEFS. OTOH, parts 1 and 3 had no phase restriction. Interestingly, the ones that had to include phase 7 were much warmer than when not restricting by phase.
Stormlover
Member
he's very good at this stuff...where did you see that, are you a paying member?
Round Oak Weather
Member
Well that puts a damper on things but maybe since we're already in a Nina winter and the subtropical jet hasn't been going and we have the +PNA to help with the cold maybe it'll end up helping by just bringing the subtropical jet to life and not hurt our cold but just making it where we don't go so hard into the freezer. Definitely trying to think for the better here not for the worse
Eric
Member
Charlotte received nearly 5" of snow on March 2, 1978. There were several small snow events during the last ten days of February 1978.
Round Oak Weather
Member
Maybe everything comes together where we can counteract the warm effects of the MJO besides the subtropical jet being activated. Maybe that's what that wxsouth dude is seeing that the warm effects of the MJO are gonna be counteracted by everything else seeming to try and come together. Is this a possibility?