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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Tarheel1 said:
There is snow/mix in Augusta and near CHS over the 5/6th, so there's some cold somewhere
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Yeah it’s close. If it would turn up the coast a bit more at the end, it could cook up a little more. Let’s see what happens with the subsequent runs over the next couple of days. I don’t think much winter weather will happen with this one east of the mountains, but who knows?
 
image.png :mad:TWC says what cold air? FMBY
 
Well I know one thing that won't verify, even if it means that we'll see a East ridge, it's what I saw on the EPS on 240 just isn't going to verify at all. The reason why has already been explained.
 
Icon keeps the interest up for Friday around here
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Stormlover said:
Icon keeps the interest up for Friday around here
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Unfortunately the 18z ICON was a big step backwards from the 12z that you just posted. I hope that the 12z is correct, but 18z looked much different.
 
Thank you, Eric and Larry for the discussions back and forth. I'm learning/absorbing a ton. (with Googles help) Lol
Thanks again!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Let me tell you about snow and 50 degree temps! :(
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Kind of like the only thing left on the bar being a day old sausage and pepperoni with all the pepperoni missing and a bite taken out. :(
 
Parker said:
Unfortunately the 18z ICON was a big step backwards from the 12z that you just posted. I hope that the 12z is correct, but 18z looked much different.
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oops, my bad..I looked at the 12Z because it went out to 180 hours and forgot to look at the 18Z. Yep, not nearly as good for sure.
 
Rain Cold said:
Kind of like the only thing left on the bar being a day old sausage and pepperoni with all the pepperoni missing and a bite taken out. :(
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Kind of like when you havnt eaten all day, waiting on that delicious pizza and stroll up to the bar, pizzas are all out and all they have is spaghetti and Mac n cheese! :mad:
We may not see bitter cold anytime soon, but normal to slightly below and lots of rain is a win!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Kind of like when you havnt eaten all day, waiting on that delicious pizza and stroll up to the bar, pizzas are all out and all they have is spaghetti and Mac n cheese! :mad:
We may not see bitter cold anytime soon, but normal to slightly below and lots of rain is a win!
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There’s a ton of fresh, delicious, piping hot chocolate chip up in Canada just waiting for somebody to bring it out!
 
Some of you have seen this storm a bunch of times but it happened on this date in 1922, and up to 3 feet of snow fell in Roxboro. Postmaster and editor of the Roxboro Courier carefully took several measurements in the snow to reduce drifting, thus the 3 foot report in Roxboro is likely legit and is a single-storm record for any station east of the NC mountains in at least the last century & a half, if not more. The next closest values I've come across came in the March 1927 blizzard where Nashville & Wilson reported 31 and 30 inches respectively.
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Webberweather53 said:
Some of you have seen this storm a bunch of times but it happened on this date in 1922, and up to 3 feet of snow fell in Roxboro. Postmaster and editor of the Roxboro Courier carefully took several measurements in the snow to reduce drifting, thus the 3 foot report in Roxboro is likely legit and is a single-storm record for any station east of the NC mountains in at least the last century & a half, if not more. The next closest values I've come across came in the March 1927 blizzard where Nashville & Wilson reported 31 and 30 inches respectively.
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Prior to this, this storm gave SAV a very rare severe ZR.
 
00z Icon hits Tennessee hard, especially NE, and then the GFS has little to nothing. Ill side with the ICON and Euro.
 
Parker said:
00z Icon hits Tennessee hard, especially NE, and then the GFS has little to nothing. Ill side with the ICON and Euro.
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Tennessee seems to be in a good spot per reading posts. Im sure SE TN will be in the screwzone. Sorry lol had to say it. I want some snow! Have only had 1" so far!
 
image.png Potential wedge set-up around the 6th 7th?

Too warm verbatim but this looks pretty doable to me
 
Brent said:
so when does the freezing part of February begin? :confused:
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The sustained cold, if there is to be any, isn't supposed to start until some time within the 2nd week of Feb once the various indices line up in a favorable fashion. That week doesn't even start for another 10 days, which is beyond the reliable range of models. So, that is still pretty far out in the distance. Patience is needed. In the mean time, there's pretty good ups and downs to entertain us.
 
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0Z Euo early maps suggest a colder run vs 12Z later on imo fwiw at least up north of us..

Edit: And quite a bit colder it ended up in the SE 2/5-6.
 
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GFS continues to show and move up a time frame of strong Greenland ridging next month. I'm starting to wonder if we may see the lately ultra rare combination of west coast and Greenland ridging.
 
image.png The man, the myth , the legend!
 
Just had a look at the 0z EPS. Again, it's fine if you think winter is over but what it's showing in the long range is still probably not going to happen (still showing a ridge over the entire US, not just the East). The Euro seems to depict it better and really, we all knew that the early periods of February were going to be transitory. It's what happens after that which matters.
 
End of 0z icon run is trying...still out there thiugh. H5 looks different on other globals with this time frame,for but expect it to continue to change.icon_z500_vort_namer_fh171-180.gif icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_60.png
 
This is going to be a long week. Nothing fun this week and getting antsy waiting for another legit storm to follow.
 
Storm5 said:
Jb says cold Feb -Jan 19,in the way .....

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
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He's been hyping this since Mid January, hope it's right!
 
Storm5 said:
Jb says cold February and March in the way .....
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The first half of Feb is clearly going to be colder than normal in the E US as a whole and in the northern 2/3 of the US in particular. From that standpoint, alone, JB will very likely will get his cold Feb. That cold Feb doesn't require the SE to be colder than normal, which is the tougher call. The best shot at that as of now is in NC/TN. Fwiw, MDA has the SE US slightly cool for the 1st week of Feb with the northern part of the SE the coldest. For example, it has metwannabe 2 colder than normal 2/1-7 with ATL 1 colder than normal. The period 2/8-12 is when the cold gets more established with the coldest once again in the more northern areas with TN 6 colder than normal (-6) and NC/NW SC/N GA/N AL/N MS -5. Southern areas like Phil and myself are in the -2 to -3 range.

If the SE gets these numbers, it would be like night and day compared to last Feb's torch for that part of Feb. For example, KATL
was +9 2/1-12/2017! This forecast has them -3 or an average of 12 colder than last Feb 1-12!
 
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The 2/5 system definitely looks interesting. I would think that TN, N AL, NW GA, and most of NC are in the game right now. The 12z GFS had a more favorable trough axis that allowed the storm to turn up the coast a bit more.
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