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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Kylo said:
Another piece of energy back in in the southwest.

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Cmc has that energy as well

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packfan98 said:
The 2/5 system definitely looks interesting. I would think that TN, N AL, NW GA, and most of NC are in the game right now. The 12z GFS had a more favorable trough axis that allowed the storm to turn up the coast a bit more.
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Its looks to have the features of the wedge.. which is usually underplay in the Carolinas!! Ummmm!
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Its looks to have the features of the wedge.. which is usually underplay in the Carolinas!! Ummmm!
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The cold is just beginning to press in for this system and the cold High pressure is to our west. Unfortunately, it's not in a favorable spot for CAD. It would need to be over the NE parts of the US instead.
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packfan98 said:
The 2/5 system definitely looks interesting. I would think that TN, N AL, NW GA, and most of NC are in the game right now. The 12z GFS had a more favorable trough axis that allowed the storm to turn up the coast a bit more.
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Let's see some more shifting South.

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Arcc said:
GFS continues to show and move up a time frame of strong Greenland ridging next month. I'm starting to wonder if we may see the lately ultra rare combination of west coast and Greenland ridging.
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Yeah even if the models don't show it right away don't be surprised if some periodic & intense high latitude blocking shows up over Greenland in 2-3 weeks from now or at the least the Icelandic vortex takes a huge hit. There's a well documented lag between Pacific MJO pulses and negative NAO regimes a week or two later (due to modulation of RWTs and resonance of large scale planetary waves) while the NAO trends positive in the week or two following Indian Ocean (phase 2-3) MJO events. In addition, there's also another well documented inverse relationship between the Aleutian and Icelandic lows, when the Aleutian low intensifies in response to this Pacific MJO event, the Icelandic/Greenland Vortex will weaken or at least halt further intensification because the Aleutian low reduces the downward wave activity flux from planetary waves over North America that originally propagateinto the stratosphere over Eastern Asia and the western NP. This Aleutian-Icelandic low seesaw is more prevalent during La Ninas can El Niños because the polar vortex is usually more intense especially late in winter, which aids in refracting these planetary waves towards North America.
Here's a nice paper from Sun and Tan (2013) detailing this relationship between the Aleutian and Icelandic Lows

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50770/full
 
GaWx said:
The sustained cold, if there is to be any, isn't supposed to start until some time within the 2nd week of Feb once the various indices line up in a favorable fashion. That week doesn't even start for another 10 days, which is beyond the reliable range of models. So, that is still pretty far out in the distance. Patience is needed. In the mean time, there's pretty good ups and downs to entertain us.
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Like Phil getting snowed on at 300. What could go wrong???
 
Storm5 said:
Marfinal temps, best kinds of storms

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You may be right, but it's almost worthless if you don't get it to freeze over because without a freeze over you'll still have to go to school, work, etc. Then it's almost like the storm was for nothing because staying home without the stress of work or school is the second best part of the storm. Do that's why I'm always kinda iffy about marginal events even if they are big. For example, even with all the snow in the early December storm, many people still had to go to work, etc the next day so it was almost as if the storm was for nothing. Get what I mean?
 
Clayton said:
You may be right, but it's almost worthless if you don't get it to freeze over because without a freeze over you'll still have to go to school, work, etc. Then it's almost like the storm was for nothing because staying home without the stress of work or school is the second best part of the storm. Do that's why I'm always kinda iffy about marginal events even if they are big. For example, even with all the snow in the early December storm, many people still had to go to work, etc the next day so it was almost as if the storm was for nothing. Get what I mean?
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No I dont. So you would rather ONLY get snow if you get to miss work??? That's kinda dumb. I'll take it anyway I can get it regardless or of the impact it has

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Storm5 said:
No I dont. So you would rather ONLY get snow if you get to miss work??? That's kinda dumb. I'll take it anyway I can get it regardless or of the impact it has

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I mean well I guess I can still go to work, but what I'm trying to say is I like to have some or a good deal of impact with the storm because it makes it more exciting if you know what I mean. The freezing over is the icing on the cake for me.
 
Well, looks like the GFS wants to give me 2 inches of snow next Monday. Only 7 days out, so guess we'll see how it goes this week. Too far to the north now for me to be too excited about it. But at least we have something else to watch again.
 
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mrdaddyman said:
Hopefully we can get some storm systems with that and ones that aren't suppressed to Cuba.
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Like the one yesterday here. It poured and poured, and I ended up with over 2 inches. Now if that had been 2 inches of qpf in sleet, I could pass on the rest of winter, almost, lol, ...but alas, the 2 inchers are nearly always rain, unless it's the z storm from hell.
 
Clayton said:
You may be right, but it's almost worthless if you don't get it to freeze over because without a freeze over you'll still have to go to school, work, etc. Then it's almost like the storm was for nothing because staying home without the stress of work or school is the second best part of the storm. Do that's why I'm always kinda iffy about marginal events even if they are big. For example, even with all the snow in the early December storm, many people still had to go to work, etc the next day so it was almost as if the storm was for nothing. Get what I mean?
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The usual order, unless it's a spring storm, is it ip/sn's at 29 to 32 then the next night goes into a hard freeze. It's rare we get a good storm into super cold air. The cold stuff usually comes after.
 
Looks like *some* support for a Gulf system on 12Z GEFS. First two images is new 12Z valid 2/4 and 2/5...bottom two is the 0Z runs same time frame.
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Clayton said:
I mean well I guess I can still go to work, but what I'm trying to say is I like to have some or a good deal of impact with the storm because it makes it more exciting if you know what I mean. The freezing over is the icing on the cake for me.
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As for me, I’d rather have the marginal temps because then you get the fun wet snow that the kids really enjoy. Can’t make snowballs or snowmen out of powder
 
dsaur said:
The usual order, unless it's a spring storm, is it ip/sn's at 29 to 32 then the next night goes into a hard freeze. It's rare we get a good storm into super cold air. The cold stuff usually comes after.
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Tony is correct. The 1/28/14's, and for areas of Georgia/Alabama, earlier this month with the powder snow and very cold temps, are even rarer than typical southern winter storms. Heck the 1/10-11/11's, which was wild too (with the cold temps after that, a lot of areas were shut down for a while).

And in most cases when I've seen typical southern winter storms everything shuts down anyway for at least a day. Like when I was in Northwest Georgia and saw 2/25/15 occur (which was a wet snow, 29-32 type event), everything was closed up the next day and it was back to business on 2/27. Same with the storm around 2/12/14. Back to business after one day of mostly everything closed the day after (outside of the area that was hammered with ice).
 
GFS looked even better than I thought. I know it includes ice, but this would be a good storm for NC. Hope it keeps showing on the models this week.

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Storm5 said:
And a follow system of interest. Of course all this is just fun to look at till now until there is better agreement

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CMC had it 0z and now 12z. Surface maps that is. Didnt check H5 so can put alot of stock in whether or not its getting same result from a differnt setup or not.
 
GFS has two Miller A'ish type systems. One around the 7th and one around the 13th. 7th has a Lakes Low trying to rain on our parade and the 13th looks like a potential phase bomb. I'll concede the one in the 7th and go all in on the 13th. Let's feel it in
 
I'm going to go out on a limb and say something is firing out of the gulf on the 6th 7th. Whether temps will cooperate I don't know, but climo says "buy your bread and milk"
 
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