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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Webberweather53 said:
The Euro slowed and amplified the MJO a lot in its most recent forecasts, thus the SER is much beefier on tonight's run after week 1.
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Yeah, the new weeklies blow! Literally, blowtorch! :( . Cold doesn't even get near the SE till 20th or later! Great news for the torchinator goobers on here! Let the weeklies bashing start
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah I was about to say that. Grit posted about it on the other board. Sounds like a buffet of sucktitude that changes maybe a bit for the better once we get into the time of year when it becomes really hard to snow. SMH.
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Ask B, we get our biggest snows in March! :( Is JB still on the cold train, or does he have his ticket punched for the poo choo!?
 
pcbjr said:
It's time to think about starting to watching old 30 minute sit-com re-runs, since the models, forecasts, and emotions are going to change just about as quickly over the next week ...
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Thats the best part of it all the changes some up and some down I guess but it would really help my emotions for it not too
 
Well this sucks. I was getting excited for the cold return but it looks like another false alarm. I highly doubt we get any big dog winter storm by the end Of February into March. All this for nothing. @Storm5 Was right. I mean the MJO of that magnitude in phase 7 will probably blowtorch us. Hey guys, I'm not too sure about us having another chance. Feeling pretty down right now. Once again, hyped up just to get beaten back down to the reality of the South. Hey Eric, I think your theory of the models overselling the ridge may be wrong. It maybe over for us. @Webberweather53
 
LMAO about 3 weeks from possible pattern change and all hell breaks loose... My last post making more since now... Breathe cold and stormy just need to wait a little longer... Plus you don't want brutal cold if possible just sustain the cold for a bit...Geez freaking jones

... Carry on
 
Hey!
I'm getting off for the night.
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But one last thought before anyone cliff dives, or goes into snow heaven (take your pick) ...
As far back as 3 days ago until 12 hours ago, NWS had me getting close to 2" of rain on Sunday; now it's "showers" ...
Bottom line - things change ... :confused:
They will again ... and BTW, they will again ... o_O
 
Xtreme Weather said:
LMAO about 3 weeks from possible pattern change and all hell breaks loose... My last post making more since now... Breathe cold and stormy just need to wait a little longer... Plus you don't want brutal cold if possible just sustain the cold for a bit...Geez freaking jones

... Carry on
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Doesn't look as if the cold can really be sustainable for long to be honest. How many times can that really work out for us? I at least want a big dog event where the snow freezes over on roads so you don't have to go to work, etc. Marginal Temps don't really cut it.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Well this sucks. I was getting excited for the cold return but it looks like another false alarm. I highly doubt we get any big dog winter storm by the end Of February into March. All this for nothing. @Storm5 Was right. I mean the MJO of that magnitude in phase 7 will probably blowtorch us. Hey guys, I'm not too sure about us having another chance. Feeling pretty down right now. Once again, hyped up just to get beaten back down to the reality of the South. Hey Eric, I think your theory of the models overselling the ridge may be wrong. It maybe over for us. @Webberweather53
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Of course it's going to be wrong in the short term because almost all the models are completely botching the amplitude of this MJO event in the Western Pacific even vs a few days ago, but it will get cold eventually just delayed w/ a stronger MJO pulse.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Doesn't look as if the cold can really be sustainable for long to be honest. How many times can that really work out for us? I at least want a big dog event where the snow freezes over on roads so you don't have to go to work, etc. Marginal Temps don't really cut it.
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Come on, this is nonsense. The largest snowstorms I can remember were all marginal temp, thread the needle storms. That is life in the south. That type setup dropped 9-10 inches on me a little over a month ago.
 
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The upper south and the mid-south is gonna get cold again soon IMHO. Now how far to the deep south it goes who knows. But Ark, Tenn and probably northern Miss, Alabama and Georgia and points north are going to get some more winter weather at some point in early to mid Febuary.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Doesn't look as if the cold can really be sustainable for long to be honest. How many times can that really work out for us? I at least want a big dog event where the snow freezes over on roads so you don't have to go to work, etc. Marginal Temps don't really cut it.
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Check the ensembles for the MJO, PNA and the AO for next month and follow the trends let me know how it looks... I'm not going to let one model run cause me to trash current thinking and the trends/trending we have seen for the past week or two...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Of course it's going to be wrong in the short term because almost all the models are completely botching the amplitude of this MJO event in the Western Pacific even vs a few days ago, but it will get cold eventually just delayed w/ a stronger MJO pulse.
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Let's hope the cold won't be wasted with it trying to warm up more quickly. I hate threading the needle like that. Wish it was just clear cut and simple
 
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