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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

It's gonna be fun watching the gfs and gefs cave towards the Euro and a much warmer period late next weekend into the next week OR the euro and eps bust towards a colder solution. Clearly one will bust

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Storm5 said:
As Shane points out, the gfs is probably rushing the pattern change which we see the models do every year

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Well, if it is rushing it, then probably we will keep chasing it until the end of Feburnuary, because that's what it could end up being. We could also be unlucky and see last year's chasing nothing happen again and us torch here on out not to see a flake until next winter.

On the other hand, the EPS could bust as you mentioned horribly, and we see some other colder solution. Seeing things haven't done well with the models recently, I'm just going to sit back and see where we go.
 
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Storm5 said:
It's gonna be fun watching the gfs and gefs cave towards the Euro and a much warmer period late next weekend into the next week OR the euro and eps bust towards a colder solution. Clearly one will bust

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Or maybe they both moderate and meet somewhere in the middle over time. Any chance that they are all off their rockers right now?
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EPS has trended to a -AO into February and a turn to a +PNA around February 6-8. GEFS has had both of those for a couple of days.
 
Kylo said:
EPS is a conus blowtorch day 10. GEFS was a lot colder, not sure which one to believe.

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Well if you believe the EPS you also have to believe they'll be one elongated subtropical ridge from the eastern North Pacific to Europe. That's not going to happen
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Well which ever turns out to be the
ForsythSnow said:
Well, if it is rushing it, then probably we will keep chasing it until the end of Feburnuary, because that's what it could end up being. We could also be unlucky and see last year's chasing nothing happen again and us torch here on out not to see a flake until next winter.

On the other hand, the EPS could bust as you mentioned horribly, and we see some other colder solution. Seeing things haven't done well with the models recently, I'm just going to sit back and see where we go.
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Well which ever is the case, it certainly is frustrating. Wish we just had a clear solution already and I wish the solution was cold and stormy but knowing mother nature we'll probably get screwed somehow.
 
The EPS continues to trend in the right direction inside day 10, these big troughs over the Rockies aren't verifying because of its issues w/ gravity wave drag and orographic forcing over the Rockies during fast flow regimes
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Kylo said:
EPS has trended to a -AO into February and a turn to a +PNA around February 6-8. GEFS has had both of those for a couple of days.
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Yep, that's because the EPS is having trouble w/ this MJO pulse fixing to enter the western Pacific. The GEFS has consistently shown a stronger pulse here while the Euro tried to drop it into the COD just several days ago. A stronger MJO event in the Western Pacific strengthens the downstream RWT over the mid-latitudes and the wave 1 forcing onto the polar vortex, which weakens it leading to a -AO tendency and it favors at least some periodic anticyclonic wave breaking in the North Atlantic (-NAO or a weaker +NAO).
 
Webberweather53 said:
Well if you believe the EPS you also have to believe they'll be one elongated subtropical ridge from the eastern North Pacific to Europe. That's not going to happen
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I hope you're right, Eric. But the weather and mother nature can do strange, crazy, unprecedented things beyond what we think and weather mets worldwide are constantly humbled by this fact I assume. How can u be 100% sure that WON'T happen? No offense intended.
 
Clayton said:
I hope you're right, Eric. But the weather and mother nature can do strange, crazy, unprecedented things beyond what we think and weather mets worldwide are constantly humbled by this fact I assume. How can u be 100% sure that WON'T happen? No offense intended.
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It likely won't happen because that's just common sense and the Rossby radius of deformation associated w/ these waves isn't large enough to have one singular ridge from eastern North Pacific, across the entirety of North America and the North Atlantic, and western Europe for very long, it's an unstable configuration. Thus, even if it miraculously occurs, we would see this for a few days at most. Additionally even if the flow is fast and nearly geostrophic, the coriolis force will eventually deflect parcels embedded within the jet and thus round out a ridge/trough axis after a particular period of time. The EPS hasn't exactly been all that reliable after day 5-6 of late, the ridge over the eastern US has been eroding as we neared verification for reasons I've delved into earlier in this thread
 
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Webberweather53 said:
It likely won't happen because that's just common sense and the Rossby radius of deformation associated w/ these waves isn't large enough to have one singular ridge from eastern North Pacific, across the entirety of North America and the North Atlantic, and western Europe for very long, it's an unstable configuration. Thus, even if it miraculously occurs, we would see this for a few days at most. Additionally even if the flow is fast and nearly geostrophic, the coriolis force will eventually deflect parcels embedded within the jet and thus round out a ridge/trough axis after a particular period of time. The EPS hasn't exactly been all that reliable after day 5-6 of late, the ridge over the eastern US has been eroding as we neared verification
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Well I don't have the common sense part because I'm not familiar with the subtropical jet or any jet all that much. So I just wanted to ask even if it was a dumb question. I might have to even Google some of the terms you used here.
 
dsaur said:
Larry, see my post below. It all depends on your history. I've live in houses with crawl spaces, one with copper, one with pvc and they froze on occasion if I was dripping the water. As soon as I went to a pencil stream inside and out no more problem. I figure overkill is better than sorry. But if you are brick, well insulated, and run the faucet closest to the junction with the outside faucet, and it's wrapped, you can skate....until it freezes, lol. Another thing to do is buy your plumbing supplies ahead of time, like in the summer, lol, because when your pipes freeze, and lot of other ones did too, and they beat you to home depot, lol. I have several cans of glue, cleaner, and lots of hot and cold pipe on hand in case I mess up. That Feb a few years back where it stayed below freezing for days, I waited until about four that first cold day to run the water, and it was already too late. Now I start running it hours before it hits freezing, because I was under the house in the dark fixing them when they broke after it went above freezing, and I was cussing, and fuming, and made myself a promise, "Tony, you damn idiot, run the damn water, if froze once, it will do it again", lol.
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Tony,
Thanks for the advice. My house is brick and directly on a slab/no crawlspace.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The EPS's MJO forecasts have been nothing short of embarrassing the last week or so, the MJO is already about as strong or stronger than the most amplified Euro monthly members from 2 days ago. Smh.
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That's at about a 3.0 for the highest while in phase 7 on this latest EPS vs its prediction of 2.5 in phase 7 three days ago. OTOH, the GEFS had 4.2 for the strongest in phase 7 three days ago. That could still end up verifying way too strong. It came down to 4.0 in yesterday's run. I still haven't seen today's run. It looks like we may be headed toward verification near the middle, which would be in the 3.3-3.4 area. In the vast majority of cases, the EPS wins even as you've noted. But maybe not this time as you predicted due to how it has done in the past with similar situations.
 
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cd2play said:
Just got on internet and found out next weekends snow threat is in a lot of trouble. It's in jeopardy of getting fired. :(
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It almost sucked me in. A few more good runs and it would of got me. That said I had to double check when I barely saw any snow since I was getting use to the fantasy paste jobs the models were throwing out the last 3 days.
 
GaWx said:
That's at about a 3.0 for the highest while in phase 7 on this latest EPS vs its prediction of 2.5 in phase 7 three days ago. OTOH, the GEFS had 4.2 for the strongest in phase 7 three days ago. That could still end up verifying way too strong. It came down to 4.0 in yesterday's run. I still haven't seen today's run. It looks like we may be headed toward verification near the middle, which would be in the 3.3-3.4 area. In the vast majority of cases, the EPS wins even as you've noted. But maybe not this time.
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The GFS forecast from a few days ago was actually very good in comparison to the European, but it has actually increased the amplitude of its MJO forecast in phase 6, there was little change in peak amplitude. A compromise solution will likely happen to an extent but it's going to be heavily weighted in favor of the GFS and the Euro will continue to get its butt kicked like it has been for the past week or so
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:confused::cool:
Storm5 said:
It's gonna be fun watching the gfs and gefs cave towards the Euro and a much warmer period late next weekend into the next week OR the euro and eps bust towards a colder solution. Clearly one will bust

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I hope warm wins out! So tired of chasing cold and miracle pattern changes! Plus my power bill will be :cool:
 
GaWx said:
Tony,
Thanks for the advice. My house is brick and directly on a slab/no crawlspace.
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As is mine! Slab, my post earlier has worked for me
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GFS forecast from a few days ago was actually very good in comparison to the European, but it has actually increased the amplitude of its MJO forecast in phase 6, there was little change in peak amplitude. A compromise solution will likely happen to an extent but it's going to be heavily weighted in favor of the GFS.
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The peak was ~4.2 on the run that ends Feb 8th, which was the 1/25 run and a run you're not showing here in your animation. It was literally off the chart. Also, you're not showing today's run (which would end on 2/11), which for some reason hasn't come out. By the way, other models like the JMA are close to the EPS fwiw. In other words, the GEFS is out on its own.
 
olhausen said:
It almost sucked me in. A few more good runs and it would of got me. That said I had to double check when I barely saw any snow since I was getting use to the fantasy paste jobs the models were throwing out the last 3 days.
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Im right there with you man. Hell, I have a cabin booked in the mountains thats right around 3,000 feet and it has even started to dwindle a little bit there and has me nervous. I am hoping we will at least see something. The Euro is the most bullish, but its nothing like it had been showing for days. Still plenty of time!
 
GaWx said:
That's at about a 3.0 for the highest while in phase 7 on this latest EPS vs its prediction of 2.5 in phase 7 three days ago. OTOH, the GEFS had 4.2 for the strongest in phase 7 three days ago. That could still end up verifying way too strong. It came down to 4.0 in yesterday's run. I still haven't seen today's run. It looks like we may be headed toward verification near the middle, which would be in the 3.3-3.4 area. In the vast majority of cases, the EPS wins even as you've noted. But maybe not this time as you predicted due to how it has done in the past with similar situations.
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These are the Euro MJO forecast from 1 and 2 weeks ago. The GFS was much more amplified for the same time period, the Euro is clearly taking a back seat to the GFS on the MJO atm.

ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_small(200).gif
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GaWx said:
The peak was ~4.2 on the run that ends Feb 8th, which was the 1/25 run and a run you're not showing here in your animation. It was literally off the chart. Also, you're not showing today's run (which would end on 2/11), which for some reason hasn't come out.
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Ok but the idea was the amplitude averaged over several forecasts of the GFS really hasn't changed much while the European's has consistently amplifying on literally every single run. The upward adjustments by the Euro have been nothing short of comical while the GFS has remained comparably rock solid. One run of the GFS backing off slightly on peak MJO amplitude in comparison to the European's consistent dampening bias aren't comparable in terms of consistency or accuracy. The GFS is clearly beating the Euro and has been for the past few weeks. I don't see that changing much going forward over the next week or so
 
Webberweather53 said:
Ok but the idea was the amplitude averaged over several forecasts of the GFS really hasn't changed much while the European's has consistently amplifying on literally every single run. One run of the GFS backing off slightly on peak MJO amplitude in comparison to the European's consistent dampening bias aren't comparable in terms of consistency or accuracy. The GFS is clearly beating the Euro and has been for the past few weeks.
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The GEFS may win and you've done very well in alerting us to the GEFS having a much better chance than usual to do better than the EPS due to the situation and it may be trending toward a GEFS victory, but I still want to see the final verification before declaring the GEFS the outright winner just yet. Regardless, this is a learning process and you've been the reason. This may even end up fooling MDA pro mets and they're usually excellent!
 
GaWx said:
The GEFS may win and you've done very well in alerting us to the GEFS having a much better chance than usual to do better than the EPS due to the sitution and it may be trending toward a GEFS victory, but I still want to see the final verification before declaring the GEFS the outright winner just yet. Regardless, this is a learning process and you've been the reason. This may even end up fooling MDA pro mets and they're usually excellent!
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The GEFS actually has been the outright winner the last 2 weeks. The Euro had the MJO going nearly into the COD (as shown above) while the GFS showed a strong event entering phase 6 about a week or so ago. The MJO has verified more amped than forecasted by virtually every model and the GEFS was the only suite that came anywhere close to being right over the Maritime Continent. We'll have to see it goes for 2 weeks in a row.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
The GEFS actually has been the outright winner the last 2 weeks. The Euro had the MJO going nearly into the COD (as shown above) while the GFS showed a strong event entering phase 6 a few weeks ago. The MJO has verified more amped than forecasted by virtually every model and the GEFS was the only suite that came anywhere close to being right over the Maritime Continent. We'll have to see it goes for 3 weeks in a row.
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Good point, the GEFS already killed the EPS in phase 5 and is about to in phase 6. Will it
also in phase 7? That was what I was following specifically where it went off the chart. Maybe but let's see the verification.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The GEFS actually has been the outright winner the last 2 weeks. The Euro had the MJO going nearly into the COD (as shown above) while the GFS showed a strong event entering phase 6 a few weeks ago. The MJO has verified more amped than forecasted by virtually every model and the GEFS was the only suite that came anywhere close to being right over the Maritime Continent. We'll have to see it goes for 3 weeks in a row.
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I take it back, the GEFS has really been beating the piss out of the Euro for the last week or so when the MJO almost entered phase 5, it was just as bad or worse 2 weeks ago. This really doesn't change the idea here that this is probably one of those rare times where the GEFS will beat the ECMWF, it'll start to suck again when the MJO starts to close in on phase 8.
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GaWx said:
Good point, the GEFS already killed the EPS in phase 5 and is about to in phase 6. Will it
also in phase 7? That was what I was following specifically where it went off the chart. Maybe but let's see the verification.
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I'd say so, or at the least the verified forecast will look more like the GEFS than the Euro. The GFS will probably quit beating the Euro once this MJO pulse gets deep into phase 8 and beyond the confines of the Maritime Continent predictability barrier.
 
Webb and Larry,
Y'all are getting this poor soul really, really confused.
MJO maps ...
Inside out, upside down.
False alarm, the only game in town?
Outside high left, inside low left ... ????
Between y'all ... Consensus? Or not?
:confused:
Phil o_O
 
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Webberweather53 said:
I'd say so, or at the least the verified forecast will look more like the GEFS than the Euro. The GFS will probably quit beating the Euro once this MJO pulse gets deep into phase 8 and beyond the confines of the Maritime Continent predictability barrier.
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So, are you saying that the research shows the GEFS to usually beat the EPS when it initializes in the Maritime...i.e., just about every time it comes around the right side?? That's really surprising if true since it seems like GEFS wins are rare.
 
packfan98 said:
FWIW, the happy hour GFS has a nice looking Miller A system next weekend. It’s not cold enough, but maybe a hint at the look we may get once the pattern change gets setup and matures a bit. Later winter systems tend to have more Miller A systems than earlier on.
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Plenty cold to the NW side. Can't wait to see who caves first with tge H5 setup next weekend, gfs or Euro

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The bottom line from my perspective of the model consensus is neither a cold dominated pattern nor a warm dominated pattern the next 10 days in the SE. Rather, I'm seeing a a near normal averaged period but not dull at all with a rollercoaster of about half the days colder than normal and the other half warmer than normal, the kind of wx that makes many people sick from the constant changes. Of course, this up and down wx is nothing out of the ordinary either.

Beyond 10 days is very hard to predict with this pattern imo. But the potential for cold then (2nd wk Feb) is there as per 3 indices. We'll see.
 
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Icon and the gfs, .... It's not like there isn't some agreement . The cmc has more of a bowl shaped trough and not as sharp out West. But it's closer to the icon and gfs vs the Euro
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Storm5 said:
It's gonna be fun watching the gfs and gefs cave towards the Euro and a much warmer period late next weekend into the next week OR the euro and eps bust towards a colder solution. Clearly one will bust

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hard to bet against the more reliable ecmwf or eps
 
packfan98 said:
FWIW, the happy hour GFS has a nice looking Miller A system next weekend. It’s not cold enough, but maybe a hint at the look we may get once the pattern change gets setup and matures a bit. Later winter systems tend to have more Miller A systems than earlier on.
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There is snow/mix in Augusta and near CHS over the 5/6th, so there's some cold somewhere
 
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