Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

[olhausen]

I think people are asking for too much. Its already been the greatest winter of our lifetimes for many of us. What more do you want ?

Asking for to much? It’s still January. If this was late February going into March then maybe you could say people are asking for to much. But this is the south and it’s rare for us to have had multiple accumulating snows by mid January. Therefore I see nothing wrong with people wanting snow in February to make it one of the better winters in the southeast in recent years. It’s nice to get just a little taste of what it’s like to live in the north.

 

[pcbjr]

Also I remember people saying "what I would give for a little SER right now" when everything was getting squashed south. So just keep that in mind. Pipe bursting air does not equal AN snowfall

Depends on your location, along with other factors like a nice Gulf low ...

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Depends on your location, along with other factors like a nice Gulf low ...

Good point. I guess pipe bursting air here would equal AN snowfall for you. It's all relative

 

[GaWx]

Am I misreading this?

As Phil alludes to, having the cold from a +PNA is way more of a positive factor for winter storm chances than the dryness associated with it being a negative. Cold and relatively dry can get you a winter storm. Wet and warm obviously does no good. The snowiest month in KATL history, Feb. of 1895, had 11.6" but it had only 2.01" of total precip. that month including liquid equivalent for wintry, which is only 43% of the Feb norm and is drier than 8/9 of the Feb's back to 1879! So, that was a very dry month that was also the snowiest ever.

 

[Stormlover]

 

[pcbjr]

This will solve all of your "Will I get February snow IMBY" questions ... LOL

http://astrologyfutureeye.com/fortune-tellers/crystal-ball

 

[Kylo]

It fits phase 7 MJO February climo too like I posted earlier. Quite possible we wait until mid-February before we get into the pattern folks are looking for. At this point, I myself am not looking for any sort of decent sustained pattern before 2/10 to 2/15.

Didn't we go through this back in mid December when MJO was in similar phase? Which makes mid February more reasonable time period to expect trough in the east.

 

[Xtreme Weather]

At what point do We consider this a possibility where the SE ridge actually verifies unlike in January . People keep saying not to worry and this and that but SE ridge fits the Nina pattern for February

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Been trying to say over a week I think it will be towards mid month... Guess I need to "pound the table". The first of the month I believe will be transient cold later we lock it down before then your setting yourself up for a disappointment in my mind


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[Storm5]

Been trying to say over a week I think it will be towards mid month... Guess I need to "pound the table". The first of the month I believe will be transient cold later we lock it down


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And That's assuming we do lock it down. It's very possible we deal with cold shots and moderating periods vs a locked cold pattern

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[Xtreme Weather]

And That's assuming we do lock it down. It's very possible we deal with cold shots and moderating periods vs a locked cold pattern

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Ugh well I'm in the "assuming" camp then


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[Storm5]

Been trying to say over a week I think it will be towards mid month... Guess I need to "pound the table". The first of the month I believe will be transient cold later we lock it down before then your setting yourself up for a disappointment in my mind


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Whos setting up for disappointment??? I'm simply asking questions. I have no expectations at all

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[pcbjr]

Whos setting up for disappointment??? I'm simply asking questions. I have no expectations at all

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The most valuable lesson I learned in law school came from an Evidence professor ... "The questions remain the same; it's the answers that are always changing."
Seems applicable here ...

 

[ATLwxfan]

Whos setting up for disappointment??? I'm simply asking questions. I have no expectations at all

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Many have already cashed in. The rest is just gravy. But it seems like the old pattern of storm signals showing in the LR and disappearing in the mid range only to reappear. Get ready for gravy.


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[Webberweather53]

The MJO on the GFS & CFS are off the charts. Yes literally off the charts. The only 2 times I pay attention to the GFS or CFS's MJO forecast is when it agrees with the European on general propagation (check*) and/or its initializing a strong MJO event in the Maritime Continent and western Pacific (check*). This is one of those few times while I'll give either model some legitimate consideration especially given that the Euro has been too weak w/ the MJO of late especially before the pulse reached the Maritime Continent (i.e. the "barrier effect"). If we even see a compromise of the Euro & GFS MJO forecast, the subtropical jet is going to receive a monster shot in the arm. You don't see MJO events near or above 2 sigma all that often at this time of the year and it could have implications on longer term ENSO behavior given how well this is timed w/ the seasonal cycle. If you want to wake up the subtropical jet in a La Nina winter this is how you do it.

 

[GaStorm]

The MJO on the GFS & CFS are off the charts. Yes literally off the charts. The only 2 times I pay attention to the GFS or CFS's MJO forecast is when it agrees with the European on general propagation (check*) and/or its initializing a strong MJO event in the Maritime Continent and western Pacific (check*). This is one of those few times while I'll give either model some legitimate consideration especially given that the Euro has been too weak w/ the MJO of late especially before the pulse reached the Maritime Continent (i.e. the "barrier effect"). If we even see a compromise of the Euro & GFS MJO forecast, the subtropical jet is going to receive a monster shot in the arm, you don't see events near or above 2 sigma all that often at this time of the year and it could have implications on longer term ENSO behavior given how well this is timed w/ the seasonal cycle.
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Does this mean a greater chance for an active STJ?

 

[pcbjr]

The MJO on the GFS & CFS are off the charts. Yes literally off the charts. The only 2 times I pay attention to the GFS or CFS's MJO forecast is when it agrees with the European on general propagation (check*) and/or its initializing a strong MJO event in the Maritime Continent and western Pacific (check*). This is one of those few times while I'll give either model some legitimate consideration especially given that the Euro has been too weak w/ the MJO of late especially before the pulse reached the Maritime Continent (i.e. the "barrier effect"). If we even see a compromise of the Euro & GFS MJO forecast, the subtropical jet is going to receive a monster shot in the arm, you don't see events near or above 2 sigma all that often at this time of the year and it could have implications on longer term ENSO behavior given how well this is timed w/ the seasonal cycle.
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Insane.

 

[Clayton Reid]

And That's assuming we do lock it down. It's very possible we deal with cold shots and moderating periods vs a locked cold pattern

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That makes it even more difficult, if not impossible to score. Don't feel like going on that rollercoaster ride again. Too frustrating.

 

[Round Oak Weather]

The MJO on the GFS & CFS are off the charts. Yes literally off the charts. The only 2 times I pay attention to the GFS or CFS's MJO forecast is when it agrees with the European on general propagation (check*) and/or its initializing a strong MJO event in the Maritime Continent and western Pacific (check*). This is one of those few times while I'll give either model some legitimate consideration especially given that the Euro has been too weak w/ the MJO of late especially before the pulse reached the Maritime Continent (i.e. the "barrier effect"). If we even see a compromise of the Euro & GFS MJO forecast, the subtropical jet is going to receive a monster shot in the arm. You don't see MJO events near or above 2 sigma all that often at this time of the year and it could have implications on longer term ENSO behavior given how well this is timed w/ the seasonal cycle. If you want to wake up the subtropical jet in a La Nina winter this is how you do it.


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Looks like it's almost off the charts

 

[Webberweather53]

Looks like it's almost off the charts

The CFS is almost off the charts and the GFS definitely is. The European model is playing catch up atm and is likely too damped

 

[olhausen]

That makes it even more difficult, if not impossible to score. Don't feel like going on that rollercoaster ride again. Too frustrating.

What? Most of our storms don’t happen when we are locked in to constant freezing weather. Most of our snows come from a cold front slamming into warm and moist air. These last few storms that had sky high ratios are not the norm in the southeast.