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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

I'm still concerned about the possibly of the Southeast ridging ruining the chances of cold reaching east of the Appalachian Mountains,however the 0Z GFS did look interesting starting around hour 204 throughout the end of the run with a active pattern.
 
Michael21 said:
I'm still concerned about the possibly of the Southeast ridging ruining the chances of cold reaching east of the Appalachian Mountains,however the 0Z GFS did look interesting starting around hour 204 throughout the end of the run with a active pattern.
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We get it! Change your name to SEridge.
 
Jon said:
That storm will be gone by the 06z run but focus on 500mb...this is the look that produces storms folks. Most models are trending towards this look, even if they’re not there yet.

2e37523d653d6ae383b61a8fe482ded1.jpg



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The 7th storm has been showing for a while now. What storm are you referring to? Thanks
 
I'm feeling it. We're not going to have the SE ridge completely obliterated this time, but it's going to be reduced quite a bit. It won't hurt to have it around if it's not at full blast, as like we saw earlier a lot of stuff we were trying to track was shredded apart due to a strong northern stream.

In the next few days we may still see a ridge on the models, but ultimately in the end, it'll be see ya later, just like last month.
 
Michael21 said:
I'm still concerned about the possibly of the Southeast ridging ruining the chances of cold reaching east of the Appalachian Mountains,however the 0Z GFS did look interesting starting around hour 204 throughout the end of the run with a active pattern.
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We need a little ridge. I want to smell the rain. Marginal temps or gtfo
 
Jon said:
That storm will be gone by the 06z run but focus on 500mb...this is the look that produces storms folks. Most models are trending towards this look, even if they’re not there yet.

2e37523d653d6ae383b61a8fe482ded1.jpg



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That looks much more realistic considering the big ridge out west and the PV in the north. It almost looked as though the models were over smoothing the pattern if that is a good way to put it. Should be interesting if we trend more to this look as February approaches.
 
accu35 said:
The 7th storm has been showing for a while now. What storm are you referring to? Thanks
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For a while now as in the last few runs? And on various days 7th-9th? I wouldn’t say that’s snow for the 7th that’s nailed down. We have a very long way to go. Just cycle through the model runs and look at the vorticity. I’m talking about the overall pattern Feb 5th onward. Trying to track a storm on surface maps right now will make your eyes bleed.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
This is actually true, this is just the first time we've seen it as far south as it was. That wave has been there for a while.
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I disagree. There’s no single wave that has been consistently modeled. These are all different waves at varying time frames

7c935f67ed726c4e3429d9fc948dd4eb.jpg


The pattern after the 5th supports development for energy to kick SE of the ridging and undercut the trough. What that energy will look like will change run-to-run.


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Now, I'm not going into specifics as it's too early, and maybe I need to study how to interpret this more, but all I'm saying is a wave has shown lately at H5 near that period. It's been in different configurations with differing outcomes, but it's there around the same date each time.

I did admit earlier that I was being a little lazy but through comparison I don't think there's been a completely different wave.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Now, I'm not going into specifics as it's too early, and maybe I need to study how to interpret this more, but all I'm saying is a wave has shown lately at H5 near that period. It's been in different configurations with differing outcomes, but it's there around the same date each time.

I did admit earlier that I was being a little lazy but through comparison I don't think there's been a completely different wave.
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You’re right specifics don’t matter at this juncture which is my point. You can see here it only locks into a specific wave in the upper left hand corner on the 18z and 00z runs
f5aee9e15c5c95ccc67ca49bef4e8f9f.jpg
 
I'll summarize the 0Z Euro 2 meter temp,'s for the SE over the next 10 days: mild followed by chilly followed by mild followed by chilly followed by mild. Literally back and forth every couple of days. Volatile. So nothing boring about this. If you don't like the wx one day, wait and it will be the opposite soon after.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The European op (not the Euro monthly I showed earlier) has updated and once again, the MJO forecasts continue to adjust upwards in the Western Pacific, with the latest forecast mean near the high end of its previous forecast a couple days ago. The Euro really sucks w/ MJO events when they're initialized in the Maritime Continent.
View attachment 3523
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Yeah, I have noticed the EPS playing "catchup" as you put it and increasing its amplitude when crossing into 7. To review, when the GEFS was first off the chart at 4.2 in phase 7, the EPS was only 2.5 at is highest in 7 when we both started discussing this. I, in agreement with MDA, stated that based on the strong overamping tendency of the GEFS I was confident that the EPS would end up coming much closer to what verifies for the strongest in 7. I noted that you were taking the rare opposite position of expecting GEFS to verify more closely due to the current setup being similar to past times when GEFS did better and EPS didn't do so good (initialization in Maritime Continent, which I have to admit is quite interesting). This is how I decided to score this EPS vs GEFS battle. IF it gets to 3.5+, I'll give you and GEFS the win. If it verifies 3.0 or under, the EPS and I win. If between 3.0 and 3.5, I'd call it about a draw because neither would deserve a win that far off imo. On the 1/27 run, whereas the GEFS dropped to 4.0, the EPS rose to 2.8
 
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BPATL said:
GREAT, so now we are at the proverbial 15 day out hogwash....
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LOL! For the most part it’s always been about the 2nd week of February. Actually the 6z GEFS brings the pattern change in a little sooner then the 2nd week of February.


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whatalife said:
LOL! For the most part it’s always been about the 2nd week of February. Actually the 6z GEFS brings the pattern change in a little sooner then the 2nd week of February.


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After day 9 it seems good right?

gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_9.png
 
Storm5 said:
Man, the EPS keeps correcting to a much colder pattern.

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Yeah I noticed on 1/26 the GEFS was making a run with the 06z runs now the EPS is following suit. Very predictable IMO giving predicted pattern forcers. Hold on tight. I’m interested to see what kind of analogs the CPC throws up with their update today.




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As others have mentioned, the 2nd week in Feb remains the time when it would most likely get cold in the SE for a sustained period despite the GEFS insisting that the NAO will by then be quite solidly positive at +1+. The entire winter has had a mainly +NAO, meaning a -NAO hasn't been needed to make it cold and produce any of the 3 winter storms. This is still
another real life example that the -NAO is overrated as far as it being crucial, especially when other indices are favorable.

The GEFS AO prog continues to be for sub -1 in the 2nd week of Feb even after adjusting for its bias of -0.5 to -0.75. Its PNA prog for then is near a solid +1.

Regarding the MJO, today's EPS prog is for an even stronger peak of nearly 3 while in phase 7 (vs 2.5 3 days ago) but still nowhere near the ridiculous 4.2 peak GEFS had 3 days ago. Here's the key as I see it: that phase 7 peak is on 2/1 and it falls substantially from there to a more favorable 2.0 at the start of the 2nd week of Feb. It then slows and drops to an even more favorable 1.75 as it just enters phase 8 on 2/10-1. Then it is poised to move very slowly and probably weaken further, which are both good for cold chances.

In summary, the teleconnections other than the NAO remain as they've been for several days favorable for sustained/intense SE cold starting at some point in the 2nd week of Feb.
 
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Storm5 said:
Man, the EPS keeps correcting to a much colder pattern.

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Jon said:
Yeah I noticed on 1/26 the GEFS was making a run with the 06z runs now the EPS is following suit. Very predictable IMO giving predicted pattern forcers. Hold on tight. I’m interested to see what kind of analogs the CPC throws up with their update today.




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The orographic forcing and gravity wave drag in the model quite frankly suck and are way underdone especially when there's fast flow over the Rockies (I.e. a big trough to the north or NE), this is why it loves to hug troughs there. The more intense gravity wave drag vs the model forecasts causes the flow to slow down which amplifies the quasi stationary planetary wave configuration ultimately raising the heights over top the Rockies and increasing the -AO (sometimes the impact of gravity wave drag issues in the Euro over the Rockies are negligible when the flow is much slower (huge ridge over the Rockies, bias often less prevalent) or other errors in the model like it's convective parameterization play a larger role in the forecast, etc.) During the summer the Euro struggles with high level heat sources and loves to stick ridges over major mountain ranges like the Rockies when reality often argues otherwise
 
A few more tends South and I'll get some flurries out of the 2nd/3rd event!
 
image.png This seems promising.....Larry Cosgrove! :):weenie:
 
It's too far out, so I'm not sure why I'm going to do this, but here goes, if we actually want there to be a nice storm, there needs to be separation between waves I think. I said I was being lazy yesterday but I was watching the H5 on 0z and on there it was a wave undercutting a NS wave. It's a nice look, but since we're out there, we can't hug that look.
 
There are some better folks on here that look at the big picture than some mets. They take the ensemble mean or snowfall maps literally and don't even seen to look at the pattern and just trust that the models already know how things will be in 10 to 15 days. Many of them have just gotten lazy. Keep up the good work guys, those that look deeper.
 
GaWx said:
As others have mentioned, the 2nd week in Feb remains the time when it would most likely get cold in the SE for a sustained period despite the GEFS insisting that the NAO will by then be quite solidly positive at +1+. The entire winter has had a mainly +NAO, meaning a -NAO hasn't been needed to make it cold and produce any of the 3 winter storms. This is still
another real life example that the -NAO is overrated as far as it being crucial, especially when other indices are favorable.

The GEFS AO prog continues to be for sub -1 in the 2nd week of Feb even after adjusting for its bias of -0.5 to -0.75. Its PNA prog for then is near a solid +1.

Regarding the MJO, today's EPS prog is for an even stronger peak of nearly 3 while in phase 7 (vs 2.5 3 days ago) but still nowhere near the ridiculous 4.2 peak GEFS had 3 days ago. Here's the key as I see it: that phase 7 peak is on 2/1 and it falls substantially from there to a more favorable 2.0 at the start of the 2nd week of Feb. It then slows and drops to an even more favorable 1.75 as it just enters phase 8 on 2/10-1. Then it is poised to move very slowly and probably weaken further, which are both good for cold chances.

In summary, the teleconnections other than the NAO remain as they've been for several days favorable for sustained/intense SE cold starting at some point in the 2nd week of Feb.
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Larry,
Good write-up. Completely agree.
Just thinking though, with the AO and PNA both favorable before mid-month, parts of the region could see some good chances for cold (perhaps not sustained) and hence frozen, before then.
Thanks, as always, for your analysis!
Best,
Phil
 
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