The blunt truth is you have added nothing to the discussion. You have not interpreted a model run or teleconnection. All you have posted is about is griping about how you are not getting snow.
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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
The blunt truth is you have added nothing to the discussion. You have not interpreted a model run or teleconnection. All you have posted is about is griping about how you are not getting snow.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
I'm torn. While I would definitely love to see a huge board wide thumping. There's definitely a small part if me that is saying this winter has been great so far. That same part of me hasn't forgotten how amazing those 60's felt the other day. So yeah I guess you could say a small part of me is rooting for a little Southeast Ridge.
Clayton Reid
Member
Aren't we looking for cold and possibly more snow?
tractor girl
Member
Did you read the posts on previous page? Models do not handle PV changes very well and we should not be focused on them so intently right now. Give them another 5-7 days and then see.
Clayton Reid
Member
No offense, but what if they actually turn out to be right with no cold?
Clayton Reid
Member
Based on my interpretation of models the past few days. Everything seems to be trending towards a ridge. The cold shot better be BIG if we want any chance of a big dog storm with no rain. That's what I'm trying to say, especially added on with the MJO analysis , weak positive pna, weak positive -AO, etc.
I think you're trying too hard to worry. There are no indications of a locked in mega SE ridge pattern from a modeling or teleconnection standpoint. In fact, most teleconnections point to at least a 2 week period developing which will see below normal temps. That gives us a better than average chance to score a storm. If we're looking for a solid 2 week period where the temps never get above freezing, I think we'll be disappointed about that, yes. Even if we stipulate that there will be no locked in super cold patterns for the rest of the year, there are exactly ZERO indications of the opposite of that happening. Back and forth can still easily yield a snowstorm. There's not really any reason to worry at this point.
tractor girl
Member
Then we move on to spring. Weather happens and nothing said on this board will change what weather is going to do. So maybe it is time to refocus on what's important in our lives and be prepared to move forward regardless of WX outcome.
IDK. The 12Z GFS at H5 looks like plenty of potential going into mid February. Phil just posted the teleconnections and the AO is looking to go negative around Feb 1, and PNA positive (coupled with -EPO). Give the pattern change time to set in and guidance to catch up, which looks to be after the possible OH Valley snowstorm Feb 2-4 time frame. I don't see anything concerning right now.
Yeah, nothing but a continuous string of run of the mill 1040-1055 highs as far as the eye can see, dropping out of Canada and rolling across the northern tier, from about 200 hr on. Yawn yawn.
Clayton Reid
Member
If we don't look intently at the models, how can we discuss the freezing pattern? I'm not a meteorologist and most on here may not be, so looking at H5, planetary waves, etc. Dont really help a lot because we don't know what they mean or imply unless u are a meteorologist. So I have the operationals and ensembles to go on basically.
Storm5
Member
dsaur
Member
It's winter. It gets cold in winter. Every winter. The warmest one I can remember had a low of 17 one night. Some of us like cold weather...a whole lot, and hate warm/hot weather, a whole lot, lol. and we feel cold air is never wasted. It's a blessing to be treasured, even it it's dry as the Atacama. Best thing to do is wait and see, and quit looking at models as some infallible source of weather wisdom. They just guess like the rest of us, based on what they see, even though they have ocean sensors and weather balloons to help.
Which model are you looking at that is making you worry? And what time period and panel are you looking at? Post it, if you can, and we can discuss it.
For what it's worth, I for one am happy for the opposite point of view or to hear about why it might be warm. But I guess if we're going to have a legit discussion about the pattern, we need to define what is making us believe a certain pattern is going to emerge/not emerge and then back that up with something other than feelings.
Stormlover
Member
Only because you are obviously ignoring anything to the contrary. There has been tons of posts that had information that did not say that. Sounds like trolling.
Touching further on what Phil posted, let's focus on day 14+:
1. PNA: mean looks strongly positive with excellent agreement among the members of the GEFS on day 14 (2/9) with no sign of falling and the model doesn't have a significant bias. So, based on this, I feel pretty confident we'll have a solidly +PNA 2/9 and likely going forward into mid month:
2. AO: mean looks strongly negative as of 2/9 (day 14) (sub -2) with most members below -2 and several below -4! So, despite a -0.75 day 14 bias, this still suggests a good chance at a solid -AO (say -2 or lower) day 14 and likely well into mid month.:
3. Last but no least, the MJO, which today's Euro monthly (EMON) has going only to ~2.5 for its max in phase 7. More importantly, it then gets much weaker in phase 7. It goes into phase 8 as weak (just outside the circle) and then almost stalls out/moves very slowly. That definitely is a cold signal for mid Feb. and it could be lengthy based on the very slow MJO move then:
Conclusion: Despite the NAO likely remaining positive (what's new?), the prospects for the triple combo of a solid +PNA, a solid -AO, and a weak AND VERY slow moving MJO 7-8 and maybe 1 afterward bodes very well for the chance at a very cold and lengthy SE US mid Feb and beyond.
1. PNA: mean looks strongly positive with excellent agreement among the members of the GEFS on day 14 (2/9) with no sign of falling and the model doesn't have a significant bias. So, based on this, I feel pretty confident we'll have a solidly +PNA 2/9 and likely going forward into mid month:
2. AO: mean looks strongly negative as of 2/9 (day 14) (sub -2) with most members below -2 and several below -4! So, despite a -0.75 day 14 bias, this still suggests a good chance at a solid -AO (say -2 or lower) day 14 and likely well into mid month.:
3. Last but no least, the MJO, which today's Euro monthly (EMON) has going only to ~2.5 for its max in phase 7. More importantly, it then gets much weaker in phase 7. It goes into phase 8 as weak (just outside the circle) and then almost stalls out/moves very slowly. That definitely is a cold signal for mid Feb. and it could be lengthy based on the very slow MJO move then:
Conclusion: Despite the NAO likely remaining positive (what's new?), the prospects for the triple combo of a solid +PNA, a solid -AO, and a weak AND VERY slow moving MJO 7-8 and maybe 1 afterward bodes very well for the chance at a very cold and lengthy SE US mid Feb and beyond.
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pcbjr
Member
Some of the best and frankly most insightful quips I've read in a while ...
pcbjr
Member
Great post, Larry!
Might I humbly add, that in the forthcoming expected configuration, the NAO is the very least of concerns ...
Best!
Phil
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Sounds great! I'm fine with our time of not watching a storm, but I also want a great February, and it looks like we are headed to one. As you posted, the PNA has a high chance of going positive well enough to have an impact. This should also help set up storm chances especially if we get a good blast of cold too.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
From everything I have read, it looks more positive than not headed into February for more snow chances.
Clayton Reid
Member
Sure, it's actually , The GFS, CMC, and Euro along with their ensembles after about February 2-4, they aren't really dipping the cold down and keep it hung up. Just ridge for days.
Be patient, The indices suggest as per post I just did that it will come and maybe very intensely/lengthy starting ~2nd week of Feb.
Post the map you're looking at, if you don't mind.
This doesn't look too warm:
Or this:
Can't see the temps here, but looking at surface features, I can't say this screams torch either. Certainly not sustained SE ridge:
Storm5
Member
Man the gfs and Euro are worlds apart next week with the wave along the front . The gfs has a massive Ohio valley winter storm the euro, not so much
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Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
Xtreme Weather
Member
12z EURO looking pretty good through 192hr really like how the Eastern Pacific is shaping up... Need that trough near Hawaii to maybe tick farther S would be best case and the ridge beginning to pump up closer to the CONUS
Clayton Reid
Member
Well based on TT, the 540 line is way up, which I thought suggest a ridge, and it rains all the way up near Chicago or into Kentucky in the models runs even with that look after February 4th.
He's got to be trolling. Not a word about the 1st two models.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Xtreme Weather
Member
12z bringing the cold down after 216hr more important aloft placement of key features looking better...Giddy Up
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Larry already laid down the law. Early Feb may be transitive, but that's not what I'm looking at, I'm looking at 2/10-2/12 and beyond. Let's wait and see how things turn out after the wave that may or may not be a major OV storm passes.
Clayton Reid
Member
Yep
That is not the rain/snow line. That is the 540mb height level. CR, I think you're thinking of thickness and possibly conflating that with height. Anywho, the map is Feb 5. I don't think the general expectation is for a sustained cold pattern to lock in by 2/5. What you'll see is that you have sort of an ebb and flow...colder and warmer. The pattern is fairly progressive. As I said earlier, that doesn't mean you still can't get a storm.
Storm5
Member
It's headed for a huge cold shot towards the end of the run that's spreading SE from the plains
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Also, one critically important element to keep in mind...the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere is just north of the border. There are a lot of ways to bring that down. It's sooooo much easier to get cold when you don't have to wait for our source region to recharge. It can happen quickly. So, you can be 70 F one day and 48 hours later, you're in the 20s. No reason at all to worry today.