• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

12z eps
8e3230a0bdc7b091decf47f302ce8f56.jpg
ee32924b04806fe64ea4e8f34992990b.jpg
9bf00700a217c15a361555e7793a9903.jpg


Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
Brick Tamland said:
Anything we've seen on the models that first show up 7 to 10 days out turn out to be duds or go poof. The last storm didn't show up until 5 days out.
Click to expand...
Even when storms do show up 300+ hrs and later verify, its not because a given model is super smart.
A broken clock is still right twice a day.
 
tractor girl said:
Even when storms do show up 300+ hrs and later verify, its not because a given model is super smart.
A broken clock is still right twice a day.
Click to expand...
I don't know. I would give some kudos to a model that locked on to a storm signal 300+ hours out that verified. There are many details that would have to have been close to being correct for that kind of consistency.
 
Some of my biggest memories of storms since I've been tracking first showed up in the long range, but we had a lot of twists and turns before go time outside of seemingly, the winter storm around 1/10/11. Past 240 is just too long imo outside of pattern talk.

My favorite is still when the GFS (and I think more models?) was taking a trip to Cuba with the 2/12/10 L.
 
Storm5 said:
So the last storm dictates how future storms will play out ?

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Models tease and take back..it's true that we need to get within 5 days to start nailing things down...but even one day out we've had a lot of surprises.On the last one, I remember someone saying that it never was going to be an Alabama storm, then parts of even south Alabama got hit hard.
 
It'll be 4 years on February 14th since my county (Lexington County) has been under a WSW or even came close to hitting WSW criteria. February, 2014 was the last time it happened. Clinging to hope that by Mid February we will have a favorable pattern and storm track across central FL or a CAD event (even though that normally brings us ice) to bring us something. Come on Freezing Ferocious February!
 
Glenn Burns
1 hr ·


The arctic invasion still on all the models first week of Feb. Looks like we may not make it above freezing on some days...
and before you ask...yes...models are also showing snow but I cannot buy into any specifics right now.
 
Stormlover said:
Models tease and take back..it's true that we need to get within 5 days to start nailing things down...but even one day out we've had a lot of surprises.On the last one, I remember someone saying that it never was going to be an Alabama storm, then parts of even south Alabama got hit hard.
Click to expand...
The discussion isn't about " mailing down things " it's about bricks comment that said storms only show on the models inside day 5

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
Truthfully we see theirs a chance are okay for a storm the first week of febuary but it's still just a potential until we get to the 28 or 29th and then we can figure out what's gonna happen if anything is going to happen
 
One monster cold shot after the other on the Euro starts lining up by day 6-7 upstream over the Canadian Prairies as the ridge over NE Eurasia, the Bering Sea, and Alaska drains all the ridiculously cold air in Eurasia straight into northern Canada. Depositing Siberian air into the base of the trough that will be over the Canadian Rockies in the medium range will inherently deepen it and force it to move southeastward into the contiguous US and should set off this barrage of arctic air masses that will follow as we get into February. Details are still largely unknown wrt precise timing and intensity but a large proportion of the continent is going to be absolutely frigid by next week.
ecmwf_t850a_nh_41.png
 
Rain Cold said:
We need to line some systems up to take advantage of all of this cold that is coming. No less than two good snowstorms in February would be appropriate!
Click to expand...
Hmmm....Taco or buffalo chicken?
That map Webb posted looks great, could be cold and stormy for a lot of the South!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Hmmm....Taco or buffalo chicken?
That map Webb posted looks great, could be cold and stormy for a lot of the South!
Click to expand...
Everything monster!

Webb's map is the 850s. Doesn't tell us much about storm oppys, except maybe that the trough axis is not too far east to allow something to develop in time.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Hmmm....Taco or buffalo chicken?
That map Webb posted looks great, could be cold and stormy for a lot of the South!
Click to expand...
It may be but we don't really know that for sure atm. You can take it to the bank that Canada and the northern tier of the US will get sent into the freezer and it will get colder here, we really need to get inside day 5-7 before we get concerned about particular storms. It seems probable that the subtropical jet will intensify as this MJO wave goes on by into the W Hem and Indian Ocean but we can't ascertain any details for at least several more days.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It may be but we don't really know that for sure atm. You can take it to the bank that Canada and the northern tier of the US will get sent into the freezer and it will get colder here, we really need to get inside day 5-7 before we get concerned about particular storms. It seems probable that the subtropical jet will intensify as this MJO wave goes on by into the W Hem and Indian Ocean but we can't ascertain any details for at least several more days.
Click to expand...
Pragmatism ... ;):cool::p:D
 
Webberweather53 said:
It may be but we don't really know that for sure atm. You can take it to the bank that Canada and the northern tier of the US will get sent into the freezer and it will get colder here, we really need to get inside day 5-7 before we get concerned about particular storms. It seems probable that the subtropical jet will intensify as this MJO wave goes on by into the W Hem and Indian Ocean but we can't ascertain any details for at least several more days.
Click to expand...

After 240 though most of the model ensembles keep higher heights in the south and east. Do you think that's another mirage like they showed around Christmas time? Or based on other factors may we be dealing with a more muted artic invasion in the SE?
 
Neat how the GFS has moved towards a day 5 coastal. Cold chasing the precip though.

prateptype_cat.conus.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top