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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Stormlover said:
He specifically talks about snow and ice reaching the gulf coast, so, no, that's not about Maryland north.
Also here posts about Atlanta in mid Feb. being -14C, or about 7 F
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Even with the cold expected to return, caution is advised on using the Brazillan to predict how cold it actually gets as that model has a notoriously strong cold bias.
 
12z gfs isn't near as cold next weekend as previous runs

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Gonna need a faster push of cokd air for those holding out hope for wintry weather next week

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12z gfs sends the primary into the Ohio valley and tries to get something going on the gulf but it's too late . The cold is much slower this run with some backside snow showers /flurries

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Still think any cold air in early Feb would be transient in nature and mid month before we have the opportunity to lock it in... That said will be interesting if our chance of a wintry storm comes before the cold air locks in just like we saw in early December... And is this pattern a rinse and repeat when we flip back warmer is there another wintry shot as well prior to warm air coming back


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12z gefs leaves much to desire in the LR . Thankfully we've seen this song and dance before
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Storm5 said:
12z gefs leaves much to desire in the LR . Thankfully we've seen this song and dance before
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I remember seeing that look on the GFS LR maps in mid-December. It wants a southeast ridge sooooo bad. Fun times, GFS.
 
That SER has as much chance of verifying as me winning the lottery! After the several runs it showed in December of a SER we should know better.
 
Rain Cold said:
I remember seeing that look on the GFS LR maps in mid-December. It wants a southeast ridge sooooo bad. Fun times, GFS.
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Yeah the GFS & other models tend to oversell the SE US ridge in a pattern like this like we saw as recently as December (& in the winter of 2013-14 as well) and the Euro in particular tends to get arctic air masses hung over the Rockies. The arctic air will probably penetrate much deeper into the SE US than currently modeled.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah the GFS & other models tend to oversell the SE US ridge in a pattern like this like we saw as recently as December (& in the winter of 2013-14 as well) and the Euro in particular tends to get arctic air masses hung over the Rockies. The arctic air will probably penetrate much deeper into the SE US than currently modeled.
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Yep, agreed. I expect the modeling to correct as we move in. Storm opportunities are another matter. Your earlier post about the NAO was interesting. I haven't given any consideration to a -NAO, since it seems they have become so atypical now and usually get lost in the modeling as we close in. It would be nice to get a legit block and the resultant enhanced major winter storm threat.
 
Rain Cold said:
I remember seeing that look on the GFS LR maps in mid-December. It wants a southeast ridge sooooo bad. Fun times, GFS.
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Yep, the GFS in general has been second or third rate at best this season. The last few winter storms (esp the one in early January) it tried to drop a trough into the Rockies in the medium-long range, only to eventually cave to other NWP models and suppress our storm from the midwest & Great Lakes into the SE US
 
Kylo said:
GEFS has a few members that support the operation run of some trailing snow.

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Another wave developing along the tail end of the front. Doesn't look quite as good as the last threat, at least at this point 10 days out. That said, it will change. A lot.
 
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