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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Arcc said:
Come on, this is nonsense. The largest snowstorms I can remember were all marginal temp, thread the needle storms. That is life in the south. That type setup dropped 9-10 inches on me a little over a month ago.
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That's good but unless it freezes over it really isn't a big deal. Almost as If it never snowed
 
Let's get those dark blue and purple 2m temp anomalies at the beginning of March so instead of 60 I can sit at a comfortable 50 while I get rained on :(
 
Arcc said:
Yeah, that is why 2009, 2010, 2014 and 2015 all had major snowstorms after February 10th.
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Feb 2014 was more a memorable historic ice storm in a lot of deep south areas.

Still think this might be a case like late December in which models correct as we get closer but honestly, I'm cool with the SE ridge not being completely obliterated this time. Maybe it means that I myself have no more chances at snow, but for the first time ever, it being bone dry was painful to one of my hands (even if I put lotion on it).
 
Praying we get a repeat of what happened in March 2014 and March 2015 when the MJO was moderate amplitude 8-1-2. Maybe we can see something like this from February 15 into early March. Cant recall the winter storms in the southeast during these periods though.

compday.eWK9iwxtAC.gif compday.IVG05NLDUd.gif
 
Kylo said:
Praying we get a repeat of what happened in March 2014 and March 2015 when the MJO was moderate amplitude 8-1-2. Maybe we can see something like this from February 15 into early March. Cant recall the winter storms in the southeast during these periods though.

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Raleigh had a ~5” snowfall Feb 25-26 and nothing in March of 2015. There was nothing remarkable in Raleigh in March of 2014. Early Feb featured a moderate snow. That’s about it.
 
just like some of the other on the forum have said it's gonna change what we see today maybe changed tmrw. I mean two day ago I was like it's gonna get cold by mid febuary now it's gotten moved back further. It's gonna chance now we just watch and see if it's better or if it's worse
 
Well, Robert @ WxSouth sure seems confident in the cold:

“The short range continues to be dull, nice, but not that interesting. All the Wintery stuff lay out in February. All the indices MJO, AO, PNA, and modost importantly, a big shift of the cold air in Russia coming to North America, all beginning next week. It will take a while to get to the Southeast, but already I'm eyeing the Tennessee Valley next Friday or so for that first major cold front to have snow behind it possibly from the mountains, west. Then things get very interesting from then on, as a tall west Ridge goes up and up, keeping the Cold Air trapped in North America, with a series of systems undercutting the bowl shaped American Trough as we head through February.
Don't buy bread or milk yet--but if you're a business owner or Apartment manager, I would go out and get as much Ice Melt as you can get your hands on while the weather is still nice. Odds are , you'll need it from east TX/ OK due east across the Deep South and MidAtlantic in February.”
 
Webberweather53 said:
The sample size of extraordinary large MJO events is rather small and few have actually discussed why the surface temperature anomalies would be warmer with a more intense MJO event, it may be an artifact in the data. Also, a stronger subtropical jet doesn't necessarily mean it automatically gets warmer here either, it often also favors the storm track being suppressed further to the south w/ appreciable CAA to boot as storm systems go by to our south with a very stout source region lurking over the northern tier and Canada thanks to the cross-polar flow induced by the Pacific/NE Eurasia ridge in the preceding weeks.
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My brand new research on the 18 very strong MJO events since 1975

1. Dec-Mar MJO mag 3+: 18 events totaling 213 days (I include all surrounding days with MJO magnitude of 2.5+ as a single event)

Facts about these 18 events at ATL:

- 1 MB, 2 B, 5 N, 6 A, 4 MA:
-8, -6, -3, -1, -1, -1, +1, +1, +3, +3, +4, +6, +7, +7, +8, +9, +11, +14

- 213 days averaged 2.4 warmer than normal

- The 3 B to MB were in 2/1978, 3/1981, and 1-2/1985. We've had 15 events since and all were near N (5) or A/MA (10)

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2. Dec.-Mar MJO mag 3+ events that included phase 7: 9 events totaling 100 days

Facts about these 9 events at ATL:

- 1 MB, 2 N, 2 A, 4 MA: -6, -1, +1, +7, +7, +8, +9, +11, +14

- 100 days averaged 5.7 warmer than normal

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3. Dec-Mar MJO mag 3.5+ events: 7 events totaling 119 days

Facts about these 7 events at ATL:

- 1 B, 3 N, 2 A, 1 MA: -6, -1, -1, -1, +7, +7, +11

- 119 days averaged 2.0 warmer than normal

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4. Dec-Mar MJO mag 3.5+ events that included phase 7: 4 events totaling 66 days

Facts about these 4 events at ATL:

- 1 N, 2 A, 1 MA: -1, +7, +7, +11

- 66 days averaged 6.0 warmer than normal

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Conclusion: No matter which way I look at it, although a few have been cold in the SE US and the next one could be cold, the stats show that having a very strong MJO, itself, in Dec-Mar without considering other indices doesn't favor cold over warm in the SE. If anything, it favors warm over cold. This is consistent with my prior research as well as that from MDA.
 
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GaWx said:
My brand new research on the 18 very strong MJO events since 1975




Conclusion: No matter which way I look at it, although a few have been cold in the SE US and the next one could be cold, the stats show that having a very strong MJO, itself, in Dec-Mar without considering other indices doesn't favor cold over warm in the SE. If anything, it favors warm over cold. This is consistent with my prior research as well as that from MDA.
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Great analysis! Is this for just phase 8-1-2 MJO events? Or are you looking at any phase of the MJO that happened to be very strong?
 
Kylo said:
Great analysis! Is this for just phase 8-1-2 MJO events? Or are you looking at any phase of the MJO that happened to be very strong?
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Thank you! If you look back at my post, you'll see that parts 2 and 4 were required to include phase 7 because that's where the very strong peak is progged by the GEFS. OTOH, parts 1 and 3 had no phase restriction. Interestingly, the ones that had to include phase 7 were much warmer than when not restricting by phase.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
Well, Robert @ WxSouth sure seems confident in the cold:

“The short range continues to be dull, nice, but not that interesting. All the Wintery stuff lay out in February. All the indices MJO, AO, PNA, and modost importantly, a big shift of the cold air in Russia coming to North America, all beginning next week. It will take a while to get to the Southeast, but already I'm eyeing the Tennessee Valley next Friday or so for that first major cold front to have snow behind it possibly from the mountains, west. Then things get very interesting from then on, as a tall west Ridge goes up and up, keeping the Cold Air trapped in North America, with a series of systems undercutting the bowl shaped American Trough as we head through February.
Don't buy bread or milk yet--but if you're a business owner or Apartment manager, I would go out and get as much Ice Melt as you can get your hands on while the weather is still nice. Odds are , you'll need it from east TX/ OK due east across the Deep South and MidAtlantic in February.”
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he's very good at this stuff...where did you see that, are you a paying member?
 
GaWx said:
Thank you! If you look back at my post, you'll see that parts 2 and 4 were required to include phase 7 because that's where the very strong peak is progged by the GEFS. OTOH, parts 1 and 3 had no phase restriction. Interestingly, the ones that had to include phase 7 were much warmer than when not restricting by phase.
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Well that puts a damper on things but maybe since we're already in a Nina winter and the subtropical jet hasn't been going and we have the +PNA to help with the cold maybe it'll end up helping by just bringing the subtropical jet to life and not hurt our cold but just making it where we don't go so hard into the freezer. Definitely trying to think for the better here not for the worse
 
Maybe everything comes together where we can counteract the warm effects of the MJO besides the subtropical jet being activated. Maybe that's what that wxsouth dude is seeing that the warm effects of the MJO are gonna be counteracted by everything else seeming to try and come together. Is this a possibility?
 
Eric said:
Charlotte received nearly 5" of snow on March 2, 1978. There were several small snow events during the last ten days of February 1978.
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2/1978, which is included in my analysis, was the coldest of the 9 very strong phase 7 MJO events. So, it was a bit of an exception as it was the only one of the 9 very strong phase 7 events that was cold in the SE.
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Maybe everything comes together where we can counteract the warm effects of the MJO besides the subtropical jet being activated. Maybe that's what that wxsouth dude is seeing that the warm effects of the MJO are gonna be counteracted by everything else seeming to try and come together. Is this a possibility?
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Anything is possible, especially with a solid +PNA and hopefully a -AO. What I get from the new research is that just having a very strong MJO in phase 7 (or phase 8-1 for that matter) doesn't itself mean we should expect cold unless there are other factors that are bullish enough. Then reassess.
 
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GaWx said:
Anything is possible, especially with a solid +PNA and hopefully a -AO. What I get from the new research is that just having a very strong MJO in phase 7 (or phase 8-1 for that matter) doesn't itself mean we should expect cold unless there are other factors that are bullish enough. Then reassess.
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Do you know like what the PNA and the AO were in those years we had the MJO at the caliber strength that reflects what we could be looking at coming? I'd say I would look but idk where to look or anything
 
JLL1973 said:
Gfs continues it's trend to a possible light midsouth event Thursday night
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maybe more than that
27399690_2001834689844179_1556881971_n.png
 
Basically its GFS -vs- EURO / CMC per the reality check. Someone is going to get their heart broken. Lol let it snow let it snow!. * Potential * lets reel this one in!
 
JLL1973 said:
Gfs continues it's trend to a possible light midsouth event Thursday night
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Lol a light mid south event. The gfs continues to say Tennessee peeps may need a snow blower to get out of thier driveway next weekend. It’s still way to far out to get excited but the gfs is definitely not letting go of this big snow idea for Tennessee. Euro had it yesterday or day before but hasn’t shown anything like the gfs has for Tennessee except for one run. If the euro starts showing something again like the gfs is it’ll start to get my attention a little more.
 
Incredible. Just two days ago, we were talking about the pattern change to cold, and now that is completely out the window it seems. Even if it's delayed, who knows if it'll be good enough for a big dog. Confidence way down at this point fellas.
 
To me on the EPS it looks as if the warmth kinda pulled in and dosent expand as far throughout the south as it did last night. Gotta keep confidence the cold will come
 
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