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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

GaWx said:
What do you mean by this about a +PNA?
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Am I misreading this?
A pattern of higher-than-average pressure in the vicinity of Hawai'i and over the mountainous region of western North America, and lower-than-average pressure south of Alaska and over the southeastern United States defines the positive phase of PNA. This pressure pattern enhances the strength of the mid-latitude jet stream as it moves over the Pacific Ocean from eastern Asia. This situation increases the likelihood of above-average temperatures over western Canada and the extreme western states of the U.S., and below-average temperatures across south-central and southeastern states. In winter, the positive phase is also associated with below-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and across the eastern half of the United States. - https://www.climate.gov/news-featur...ability-pacific-north-american-teleconnection
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The upcoming pattern looks good to me. I don’t think we want cold like we had in late December/ early January unless we get a big storm during the transition from warmer to colder. When we were super cold it seemed everything was suppressed until we warmed up a little. I feel we have a better chance at snow when our temps are up and down. We only need one more big storm to verify to make this already great winter even greater.
 
At what point do We consider this a possibility where the SE ridge actually verifies unlike in January . People keep saying not to worry and this and that but SE ridge fits the Nina pattern for February
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Storm5 said:
At what point do We consider this a possibility where the SE ridge actually verified unlike in January . People keep saying not to worry and this and that but SE ridge fits the Nina pattern for February
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:(
 
Storm5 said:
At what point do We consider this a possibility where the SE ridge actually verifies unlike in January . People keep saying not to worry and this and that but SE ridge fits the Nina pattern for February
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I thought you were on the cold and stormy side? Why the change all of a sudden ? But I feel you, we may not get any more chances. That is what I was afraid of
 
Storm5 said:
At what point do We consider this a possibility where the SE ridge actually verifies unlike in January . People keep saying not to worry and this and that but SE ridge fits the Nina pattern for February
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Might be what the CPC is looking at and latching on to ...

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Clayton Reid said:
I thought you were on the cold and stormy side? Why the change all of a sudden ? But I feel you, we may not get any more chances. That is what I was afraid of
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I haven't changed I'm simply asking a question . Obviously this is a step down pattern with cold shots then moderation followed by more cold shots , wont be as cold ( sustained wise ) as the cold in January. But , we can't just ignore the possibility of the SE ridge finally showing up. A SER in February fits the Nina pattern as Webber mentioned months ago . Keep reading everywhere people saying don't worry the models and ensembles will correct .

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SCweather said:
IF we were to wiff on the rest of Winter, it would seem like it would be sort of like 2011. Started Winter off with a bang. We had that day after Christmas Winterstorm in 2010 then 2 weeks later into 2011 we had the Winter storm in January. After that, I remember it being pretty average to above average the rest of Winter besides the Outerbanks snowstorm in Mid January. Would seem like we have atleast a couple chances left in the tank for February. I'm hoping for the best atleast down here in the Columbia area where we haven't caught the Winter love so far this Winter.
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It really started to warm up after Feb 15 in 2011. We had a snowfall around the 2nd week of Feb in 2011.
 
Storm5 said:
At what point do We consider this a possibility where the SE ridge actually verifies unlike in January . People keep saying not to worry and this and that but SE ridge fits the Nina pattern for February
3f550be5f690f2bbe25cebbe595eadf5.jpg



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It may end up like that but I feel the end of the month into march will be cold but I could be wrong. Also just going off what others have said all the other symbols seem to line up for cold and stormy but the models don't. It's also hard to trust the models when they've been all over the place this year
 
Storm5 said:
I haven't changed I'm simply asking a question . Obviously this is a step down pattern with cold shots then moderation followed by more cold shots , wont be as cold ( sustained wise ) as the cold in January. But , we can't just ignore the possibility of the SE ridge finally showing up. A SER in February fits the Nina pattern as Webber mentioned months ago . Keep reading everywhere people saying don't worry the models and ensembles will correct .

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Very well reasoned.
A lot of this winter should not have even happened, "by the books".
Pragmatism and likelihoods should not give way to whimsy looking forward.
This Curmudgeon would love one round of winter to yet defy the odds in his back yard.
If it happens, great.
But if not (and likely not), it's been a long, strange and fun trip already this winter.
:cool:
 
Storm5 said:
I haven't changed I'm simply asking a question . Obviously this is a step down pattern with cold shots then moderation followed by more cold shots , wont be as cold ( sustained wise ) as the cold in January. But , we can't just ignore the possibility of the SE ridge finally showing up. A SER in February fits the Nina pattern as Webber mentioned months ago . Keep reading everywhere people saying don't worry the models and ensembles will correct .

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Maybe, they will correct. I remember Webber mentioning The tendency for a February warmth, but he also mentioned that in this kind of pattern, models tend to oversell the SE ridge. I hope the SE ridge doesn't get in our way. Otherwise, winter is over.
 
1300m said:
It fits phase 7 MJO February climo too like I posted earlier. Quite possible we wait until mid-February before we get into the pattern folks are looking for. At this point, I myself am not looking for any sort of decent sustained pattern before 2/10 to 2/15.
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Judah Cohen mentioned it could be early February with all the Stratosphere warming about to occur. I'd say it gets sustained after 2/5. I worry about mid February though. It just always seems to warm up to fast before a storm in that time period where we get mostly rain. Who knows if we get mid February's like 2010, 2014, etc. Again? That's what scares me. It may not happen like those years
 
The SER was no match for the Arctic air in early January. I don't expect this to be any different
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I think people are asking for too much. Its already been the greatest winter of our lifetimes for many of us. What more do you want ?
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Asking for to much? It’s still January. If this was late February going into March then maybe you could say people are asking for to much. But this is the south and it’s rare for us to have had multiple accumulating snows by mid January. Therefore I see nothing wrong with people wanting snow in February to make it one of the better winters in the southeast in recent years. It’s nice to get just a little taste of what it’s like to live in the north.
 
tractor girl said:
Am I misreading this?
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As Phil alludes to, having the cold from a +PNA is way more of a positive factor for winter storm chances than the dryness associated with it being a negative. Cold and relatively dry can get you a winter storm. Wet and warm obviously does no good. The snowiest month in KATL history, Feb. of 1895, had 11.6" but it had only 2.01" of total precip. that month including liquid equivalent for wintry, which is only 43% of the Feb norm and is drier than 8/9 of the Feb's back to 1879! So, that was a very dry month that was also the snowiest ever.
 
1300m said:
It fits phase 7 MJO February climo too like I posted earlier. Quite possible we wait until mid-February before we get into the pattern folks are looking for. At this point, I myself am not looking for any sort of decent sustained pattern before 2/10 to 2/15.
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Didn't we go through this back in mid December when MJO was in similar phase? Which makes mid February more reasonable time period to expect trough in the east.
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Storm5 said:
At what point do We consider this a possibility where the SE ridge actually verifies unlike in January . People keep saying not to worry and this and that but SE ridge fits the Nina pattern for February
3f550be5f690f2bbe25cebbe595eadf5.jpg



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Been trying to say over a week I think it will be towards mid month... Guess I need to "pound the table". The first of the month I believe will be transient cold later we lock it down before then your setting yourself up for a disappointment in my mind


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Xtreme Weather said:
Been trying to say over a week I think it will be towards mid month... Guess I need to "pound the table". The first of the month I believe will be transient cold later we lock it down


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And That's assuming we do lock it down. It's very possible we deal with cold shots and moderating periods vs a locked cold pattern

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Xtreme Weather said:
Been trying to say over a week I think it will be towards mid month... Guess I need to "pound the table". The first of the month I believe will be transient cold later we lock it down before then your setting yourself up for a disappointment in my mind


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Whos setting up for disappointment??? I'm simply asking questions. I have no expectations at all

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Storm5 said:
Whos setting up for disappointment??? I'm simply asking questions. I have no expectations at all

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The most valuable lesson I learned in law school came from an Evidence professor ... "The questions remain the same; it's the answers that are always changing."
Seems applicable here ... ;)
 
Storm5 said:
Whos setting up for disappointment??? I'm simply asking questions. I have no expectations at all

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Many have already cashed in. The rest is just gravy. But it seems like the old pattern of storm signals showing in the LR and disappearing in the mid range only to reappear. Get ready for gravy.


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The MJO on the GFS & CFS are off the charts. Yes literally off the charts. The only 2 times I pay attention to the GFS or CFS's MJO forecast is when it agrees with the European on general propagation (check*) and/or its initializing a strong MJO event in the Maritime Continent and western Pacific (check*). This is one of those few times while I'll give either model some legitimate consideration especially given that the Euro has been too weak w/ the MJO of late especially before the pulse reached the Maritime Continent (i.e. the "barrier effect"). If we even see a compromise of the Euro & GFS MJO forecast, the subtropical jet is going to receive a monster shot in the arm. You don't see MJO events near or above 2 sigma all that often at this time of the year and it could have implications on longer term ENSO behavior given how well this is timed w/ the seasonal cycle. If you want to wake up the subtropical jet in a La Nina winter this is how you do it.


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Webberweather53 said:
The MJO on the GFS & CFS are off the charts. Yes literally off the charts. The only 2 times I pay attention to the GFS or CFS's MJO forecast is when it agrees with the European on general propagation (check*) and/or its initializing a strong MJO event in the Maritime Continent and western Pacific (check*). This is one of those few times while I'll give either model some legitimate consideration especially given that the Euro has been too weak w/ the MJO of late especially before the pulse reached the Maritime Continent (i.e. the "barrier effect"). If we even see a compromise of the Euro & GFS MJO forecast, the subtropical jet is going to receive a monster shot in the arm, you don't see events near or above 2 sigma all that often at this time of the year and it could have implications on longer term ENSO behavior given how well this is timed w/ the seasonal cycle.
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Does this mean a greater chance for an active STJ?
 
Webberweather53 said:
The MJO on the GFS & CFS are off the charts. Yes literally off the charts. The only 2 times I pay attention to the GFS or CFS's MJO forecast is when it agrees with the European on general propagation (check*) and/or its initializing a strong MJO event in the Maritime Continent and western Pacific (check*). This is one of those few times while I'll give either model some legitimate consideration especially given that the Euro has been too weak w/ the MJO of late especially before the pulse reached the Maritime Continent (i.e. the "barrier effect"). If we even see a compromise of the Euro & GFS MJO forecast, the subtropical jet is going to receive a monster shot in the arm, you don't see events near or above 2 sigma all that often at this time of the year and it could have implications on longer term ENSO behavior given how well this is timed w/ the seasonal cycle.
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Insane.
 
Storm5 said:
And That's assuming we do lock it down. It's very possible we deal with cold shots and moderating periods vs a locked cold pattern

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That makes it even more difficult, if not impossible to score. Don't feel like going on that rollercoaster ride again. Too frustrating.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The MJO on the GFS & CFS are off the charts. Yes literally off the charts. The only 2 times I pay attention to the GFS or CFS's MJO forecast is when it agrees with the European on general propagation (check*) and/or its initializing a strong MJO event in the Maritime Continent and western Pacific (check*). This is one of those few times while I'll give either model some legitimate consideration especially given that the Euro has been too weak w/ the MJO of late especially before the pulse reached the Maritime Continent (i.e. the "barrier effect"). If we even see a compromise of the Euro & GFS MJO forecast, the subtropical jet is going to receive a monster shot in the arm. You don't see MJO events near or above 2 sigma all that often at this time of the year and it could have implications on longer term ENSO behavior given how well this is timed w/ the seasonal cycle. If you want to wake up the subtropical jet in a La Nina winter this is how you do it.


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Looks like it's almost off the charts
 
Clayton Reid said:
That makes it even more difficult, if not impossible to score. Don't feel like going on that rollercoaster ride again. Too frustrating.
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What? Most of our storms don’t happen when we are locked in to constant freezing weather. Most of our snows come from a cold front slamming into warm and moist air. These last few storms that had sky high ratios are not the norm in the southeast.
 
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