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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

We're definitely getting BN cold in early to mid Feb.. for how long, and exactly when, and how much mystery meat throws up in the Southern stream is yet to be determined.
 
Arcc said:
Read H5 people, don't look the surface temp maps or they will drive you crazy.
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Yup

Need to think step down as far as temps not a mother of all cold shots and lock in. As I have mentioned think Dec into January style pattern... Just breathe

... Carry on


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Let’s see where we are at in 5 to 7 days before anyone gets to worried about what the upcoming pattern will or won’t do.


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Well TWC just showed how the US goes zonal for first 2 weeks in February, looked like some of the op runs have been showing, with extreme cold hugging the Canada border! :(
 
Tarheel1 said:
Well TWC just showed how the US goes zonal for first 2 weeks in February, looked like some of the op runs have been showing, with extreme cold hugging the Canada border! :(
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Yeah if we get stuck in a zonal flow it's going to be like threading a needle in a wind tunnel trying to get some snow around here
 
Please stop looking at warm maps and freaking out. The Ensembles will struggle on 2mT’s and change very often outside of Day 10. That’s mesoscale data that a macro scale output is trying to translate. Think overall picture here! There are so many pros and little if any cons to this February setup.

Ensembles are useless, even at 500mb, during large pattern changes and days 13-15 which I see many posting here. You have to remember how ensembles are generated (off the control run of the Op ran at lower resolution 20x over for the GEFS and 50x over for the EPS) if the control runs are wonky, well, there goes the entire ensemble suite.

Threats are going to come roaring in the first week of feb.

*fixed some typos...dang iPhone keyboard!

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GFS is really honking for the beginning of February. We'll see. Too far away now to take specifics seriously.
 
Looks as if theirs a lot of moisture flying around throughout and the gulf looks to be going too all we need is some cold and we could have a serious winter storm. Ik it's long range but it's really gets ya a little hyped
 
Nobody knows what will happen. We could end up with a similar pattern to Dec with the SE ridge being stubborn, which is consistent with La Niña tendencies, especially in February, and is what model consensus is suggesting MAY happen. But that also may make it easier for northern/well inland locations to have a winter storm threat at some point.
 
Today's GEFS based indices looking out toward the 10-14 day period: More +NAO vs yesterday but still maintaining a pretty solid +PNA and a good lean toward -AO even after adjusting for the GEFS -AO bias. As long as we have the +PNA along with at least a modest
-AO, the SE should at least still be in or near the battlezone with quite cold air not too far away should the SE ridge be stubborn as happened in December. That tells me winter storm(s) threat quite possible in or near the inland SE.
 
GaWx said:
Nobody knows what will happen. We could end up with a similar pattern to Dec with the SE ridge being stubborn, which is consistent with La Niña tendencies, especially in February, and is what model consensus is suggesting MAY happen. But that also may make it easier for northern/well inland locations to have a winter storm threat at some point.
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I thought we didn't have a SE ridge in December I thought it showed up on the long range and then got beaten back
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
I thought we didn't have a SE ridge in December I thought it showed up on the long range and then got beaten back
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I think the models finally killed it around Christmas after it had been showing up every model run 300+ hours out. Christmas looked like it would torch then when it finally came temperatures fell during the day when Santa clause finally came. Back and forth just like we're seeing now in the LE
 
GaWx said:
i'm talking about the month as a whole. This is consistent with most of the SE being slightly warmer than normal (RDU was an exception) vs it being cold in the NE and northeastern Midwest:

View attachment 3426
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Wow I wouldn't of thought we were above normal. Guess 2 years of torching will do that to you.
 
GaWx said:
i'm talking about the month as a whole. This is consistent with most of the SE being slightly warmer than normal (RDU was an exception) vs it being cold in the NE and northeastern Midwest:

View attachment 3426
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I gotcha. The cold days seem to overshadow the warm days sometimes. I honestly thought we were right around average most of December
 
GaWx said:
i'm talking about the month as a whole. This is consistent with most of the SE being slightly warmer than normal (RDU was an exception) vs it being cold in the NE and northeastern Midwest:

View attachment 342
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What's crazy only 6-8 days in December I believe (for most) is what caused the normal to slightly above normal for the month... Rest of the month was slightly below or well below normal...

Same gonna be for January but I think most of us will be below normal on average. Before this latest little warm spell for the month of Jan for central and N AL was 6-9 degrees below normal! That said think we could see -2 to -4 for my area at least


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Nice cold chasing moisture setup on the 12z gfs. That could work for those west of the mountains. Doesn't typically work east of there.
prateptype_cat.conus.png
 
I really think February's gonna be a good month especially if we get the gulf really involved cause it's already produced a storm that dropped a foot in north Georgia and turned a clipper/ hybrid clipper into something for Georgia. It just hasn't been able to get it in full force since December in my opinion
 
GaWx said:
i'm talking about the month as a whole. This is consistent with most of the SE being slightly warmer than normal (RDU was an exception) vs it being cold in the NE and northeastern Midwest:

View attachment 3426
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I can see us being a bit above normal because honestly aside from the early dec snow and cold, there wasn’t much else to write home about. It was definitely cold at times though.


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Wow what a classic Maritime Continent MJO pulse. The upper level anticyclone (shown here using stream function which shows the component of the flow that's purely rotational) and downstream trough near and just north of Japan initiated primarily by geostrophic adjustment and downstream development from RW dispersion respectively, are right where you'd expect it to be.
Screen Shot 2018-01-25 at 1.01.41 PM.png
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Webberweather53 said:
Wow what a classic Maritime Continent MJO pulse. The upper level anticyclone (shown here using stream function which shows the component of the flow that's purely rotational) and downstream trough near and just north of Japan initiated primarily by geostrophic adjustment and downstream development from RW dispersion respectively, are right where you'd expect it to be.
View attachment 3430
View attachment 3428
View attachment 3429
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Is this good for us?
 
Webberweather53 said:
Wow what a classic Maritime Continent MJO pulse. The upper level anticyclone (shown here using stream function which shows the component of the flow that's purely rotational) and downstream trough near and just north of Japan initiated primarily by geostrophic adjustment and downstream development from RW dispersion respectively, are right where you'd expect it to be.
View attachment 3430
View attachment 3428
View attachment 3429
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Why are these graphics so bad. They look like the daily drawings my toddler brings home from school. We should create better graphics

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1300m said:
Here's what the pattern will likely generally evolve from and into by the second half of February, assuming the MJO continues on as predicted. I am barely even looking at NWP guidance at this point.

FebruaryPhase7gt1500mb.gif

FebruaryPhase8all500mb.gif



ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif
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Yesh, doesn't seem like the models are much help at this point, but it's hard to just be patient and wait for a storm, making it more difficult not to take note of them. The MO doesn't really tell much about how cold it's gonna get or how stormy. I know everybody keeps saying not to look for a storm and not pay attention to warm maps, but it's still hard for me at least. Especially when you look at H5, I don't think know it really tells you that much about how cold it's gonna be or if it'll be cold enough.
 
What is the PNA outlook for Feb? If still +PNA, it might not matter if we are cold.
 
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