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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

SnowNiner said:
After 240 though most of the model ensembles keep higher heights in the south and east. Do you think that's another mirage like they showed around Christmas time? Or based on other factors may we be dealing with a more muted artic invasion in the SE?
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Just read the answers on the other board, where you asked the same question.
 
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It is still 9 days away BUT it looks like next week Friday, Groundhog's Day, could bring us another blast of arctic air! Long term models are throwing out some very cold temperatures! It is still too early to know what it means for SNOW chances, but just keep this in mind as we get closer to Super Bowl weekend!
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
Is this the one time cold in Siberia correlates to cold over here?
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I'm confident based on recall of other times when Siberia was extremely cold for even them that there is little to no correlation and that it instead would be random. It occasionally happens but there's no correlation. Also, regarding when the SE does get very cold via the Siberian Express, I know of no proof that is more likely to occur when Siberia is extra cold. Siberian air is nearly always extremely cold even if Siberia is not colder than normal. I assume Siberia is coldest in many cases when the air is stuck there because it is so far north and has too much snow to allow for moderation with time. At least that's my educated guess. In summary, just knowing it is very cold in Siberia vs normals without seeing medium range models does nothing to get me thinking we'd have an increased probability of getting cold soon. (I'm not talking about the current case..i mean in general).
 
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Kylo said:
Neat how the GFS has moved towards a day 5 coastal. Cold chasing the precip though.

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Not a bad look at all. I'd definitely believe more precip gets thrown behind it there.

Looking a little closer, that one will stink for everyone except maybe NC. Perfect Miller A with a perfect track for many, too warm.
 
GaWx said:
I'm confident based on recall of other times when Siberia was extremely cold for even them that there is little to no correlation and that it instead would be random. It occasionally happens but there's no correlation. Also, regarding when the SE does get very cold via the Siberian Express, I know of no proof that is more likely to occur when Siberia is extra cold. Siberian air is nearly always extremely cold even if Siberia is not colder than normal. I assume Siberia is coldest in many cases when the air is stuck there because it is so far north and has too much snow to allow for moderation with time. At least that's my educated guess. In summary, just knowing it is very cold in Siberia vs normals without seeing medium range models does nothing to get me thinking we'd have an increased probability of getting cold soon. (I'm not talking about the current case..i mean in general).
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I gotcha. Basically it's just loooking like it's gonna get cold no matter what Siberia says?
 
BPATL said:
I Despise Ground Hog's day....Their is always going to be 6 or more weeks of Winter.
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I despise groundhogs in general. They killed a tree in my back yard and had to trap 4 of them and haul them off and release them. They love to eat gardens as well, which is really annoying.

As for the models at the moment, things look good. I'm liking where we are headed, and I think we have a shot at a storm still. Of course there is that signal for Groundhog's day from a few runs, and there is a small potential. I don't see it doing too well at this time, but if we see a good trend, there could be more than cold chasing moisture.
 
GFS 18z looked very transient with cold shots and at the end of run, it's warm across the South. Just one run, but hate seeing all the hype from the likes of Glenn Burns, just seems to jinx things
 
Round Oak Weather- Zeb said:
I gotcha. Basically it's just loooking like it's gonna get cold no matter what Siberia says?
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Regarding THIS time, Siberian cold looks like it will add to the level of cold expected in Canada and a good portion of the US due to expected cross polar flow. But most of the time including when Siberia is very cold, there is no cross polar flow meaning no Siberian contribution. That's what I mean by little to no correlation.
 
Tarheel1 said:
GFS 18z looked very transient with cold shots and at the end of run, it's warm across the South. Just one run, but hate seeing all the hype from the likes of Glenn Burns, just seems to jinx things
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Lol all in on the 18z 384hr GFS
 
GaWx said:
Regarding THIS time, Siberian cold looks like it will add to the level of cold expected in Canada and a good portion of the US due to expected cross polar flow. But most of the time including when Siberia is very cold, there is no cross polar flow meaning no Siberian contribution. That's what I mean by little to no correlation.
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Larry,
Been a bear of a couple days, and little time to study, but IMHO, until we get some PNA help, you and I may be about normal for a while or for the duration (but who can complain about 60's, I suppose) ...
Best!
Phil
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
Been a bear of a couple days, and little time to study, but IMHO, until we get some PNA help, you and I may be about normal for a while or for the duration (but who can complain about 60's, I suppose) ...
Best!
Phil
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... although, I'd be happy with a strong low digging out of the Gulf, with 500 temps at 20º to Miami and surface temps at 29º to Orlando (and 25º here) ... but I dream ... :eek:
 
pcbjr said:
... although, I'd be happy with a strong low digging out of the Gulf, with 500 temps at 20º to Miami and surface temps at 29º to Orlando (and 25º here) ... but I dream ... :eek:
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Maybe when Katla in Iceland goes off, the poles move, and sunspots disappear, we'll be able to pull that one off, lol....outside of Goofy's extra nutty range, and into real life :) No matter what, looks like you can tell your tree more cold is coming, and stop blooming, or leafing, or budding, or whatever it was doing. I'm pleased those nasty daffodils that come out to tell me winter's ending in a few more months, will have some bloom shocking cold when they stick their heads up, and make them think twice about it :) Unwanted harbingers of spring. You don't see any camellias in Aug. to remind you winter is coming.
 
dsaur said:
Maybe when Katla in Iceland goes off, the poles move, and sunspots disappear, we'll be able to pull that one off, lol....outside of Goofy's extra nutty range, and into real life :) No matter what, looks like you can tell your tree more cold is coming, and stop blooming, or leafing, or budding, or whatever it was doing. I'm pleased those nasty daffodils that come out to tell me winter's ending in a few more months, will have some bloom shocking cold when they stick their heads up, and make them think twice about it :) Unwanted harbingers of spring. You don't see any camellias in Aug. to remind you winter is coming.
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Tony,
That tree (the Chickasaw plum that has never bloomed until after the last freeze) - the whole damn blooming branch fell off a week ago ... now trying to figure how that works into cooking stew ... :confused:
Best!
Phil
 
stormcentral said:
Hoping for something wintry in the tennessee valley February. Lets reel this one in folks. Let it snow, let it snow! :) theres no place to go Lol! -Storm Central
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Feb/Mar 1960 redux... book it. Can you imagine weather historians in the future pouring over a winter like that?
 
This NS dominance is just so damn boring. It's hard for me to sit here and look at model run after model run of wasted shortwaves. What's it going to take to get that STJ pumping? Damn
 
The cold next weekend looks great for the northern tier at the moment as Webber mentioned. We cool off but nothing to write home about

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Someone's going to score on the 2nd or 3rd

It probably won't be anyone on the Lee side of the Apps though

With that said, the 00z GFS threw Brick a bone
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GFS really trying to move the core of the cold air into eastern Canada and northeastern United States towards the end of the run. I'm liking where this is going. Let's time out a decent damming high with some gulf instability and we are in business. Goodnight peoples
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
GFS really trying to move the core of the cold air into eastern Canada and northeastern United States towards the end of the run. I'm liking where this is going. Let's time out a decent damming high with some gulf instability and we are in business. Goodnight peoples
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This kind of reminds me of Dec. over Jan because the cold was mainly just brushing the SE for much of the month vs plunging down in Jan. IF Feb. were to turn out like Dec. for the bulk of it, that would be somewhat encouraging for well inland folks' winter storm chance though not encouraging for the snow-starved midlands of SC (and of course further S).
 
0z Euro showing a slow building block in the NW Arctic, unless I'm seeing things. Should bode well down the line for Conus cold:
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As usual, Gfs is the donkey, trust Euro at this range for overall pattern placement. Gfs: Glancing blows, Euro: stouter glancing blows. Let's see who wins, and what about precip?
 
Brent said:
what happened to the cold lol
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what happened to the cold in Dec... took several weeks for the bulk of it to come down, snow totals be damned.

Edit: I'm trying to be optimistic for the late night crowd. Last call and all.
 
whamby said:
what happened to the cold in Dec... took several weeks for the bulk of it to come down, snow totals be damned.

Edit: I'm trying to be optimistic for the late night crowd. Last call and all.
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Make February Great Again
 
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