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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Kylo said:
Euro control run has a trailing wave that drops snow in northern Northern North Carolina into Virginia. They have free EPS members
available.

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/eps_ensembles.php

eps_slp_qpf_c01_conus_264.png
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I looked at that don't know if it was snow or not but it came across middle Georgia too. Let me know if it would be cold enough for snow according to that run. Ik it's too early but this could be our first real chance for snow in Feb
 
Can we just fast forward to the end of next week? Looks like business is about to pick up again then.
 
To my friends in Tn, Miss and Ala, I wouldn't run out to buy milk or bread just yet. As for Bastardi's comment, he could be right in general terms (mainly Md and north) but not sure the SE will get in to the cold stormy period with some help from the NAO. Remember his focus has always been the big cities of the MA and NE and he is talking primarily about cold for that market IMO
 
MichaelJ said:
To my friends in Tn, Miss and Ala, I wouldn't run out to buy milk or bread just yet. As for Bastardi's comment, he could be right in general terms (mainly Md and north) but not sure the SE will get in to the cold stormy period with some help from the NAO. Remember his focus has always been the big cities of the MA and NE and he is talking primarily about cold for that market IMO
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He specifically talks about snow and ice reaching the gulf coast, so, no, that's not about Maryland north.
Also here posts about Atlanta in mid Feb. being -14C, or about 7 F
DUTozGYWkAE_AVs.jpg:large
 
Stormlover said:
He specifically talks about snow and ice reaching the gulf coast, so, no, that's not about Maryland north.
Also here posts about Atlanta in mid Feb. being -14C, or about 7 F
DUTozGYWkAE_AVs.jpg:large
Click to expand...

Even with the cold expected to return, caution is advised on using the Brazillan to predict how cold it actually gets as that model has a notoriously strong cold bias.
 
Gonna need a faster push of cokd air for those holding out hope for wintry weather next week

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12z gfs sends the primary into the Ohio valley and tries to get something going on the gulf but it's too late . The cold is much slower this run with some backside snow showers /flurries

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Still think any cold air in early Feb would be transient in nature and mid month before we have the opportunity to lock it in... That said will be interesting if our chance of a wintry storm comes before the cold air locks in just like we saw in early December... And is this pattern a rinse and repeat when we flip back warmer is there another wintry shot as well prior to warm air coming back


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12z gefs leaves much to desire in the LR . Thankfully we've seen this song and dance before
6cc42d7734928437159d705ab0d9daf6.jpg
d9ba6ad2f89e7f47ba65a750235a79a5.jpg


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Storm5 said:
12z gefs leaves much to desire in the LR . Thankfully we've seen this song and dance before
6cc42d7734928437159d705ab0d9daf6.jpg
d9ba6ad2f89e7f47ba65a750235a79a5.jpg


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I remember seeing that look on the GFS LR maps in mid-December. It wants a southeast ridge sooooo bad. Fun times, GFS.
 
That SER has as much chance of verifying as me winning the lottery! After the several runs it showed in December of a SER we should know better.
 
Rain Cold said:
I remember seeing that look on the GFS LR maps in mid-December. It wants a southeast ridge sooooo bad. Fun times, GFS.
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Yeah the GFS & other models tend to oversell the SE US ridge in a pattern like this like we saw as recently as December (& in the winter of 2013-14 as well) and the Euro in particular tends to get arctic air masses hung over the Rockies. The arctic air will probably penetrate much deeper into the SE US than currently modeled.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah the GFS & other models tend to oversell the SE US ridge in a pattern like this like we saw as recently as December (& in the winter of 2013-14 as well) and the Euro in particular tends to get arctic air masses hung over the Rockies. The arctic air will probably penetrate much deeper into the SE US than currently modeled.
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Yep, agreed. I expect the modeling to correct as we move in. Storm opportunities are another matter. Your earlier post about the NAO was interesting. I haven't given any consideration to a -NAO, since it seems they have become so atypical now and usually get lost in the modeling as we close in. It would be nice to get a legit block and the resultant enhanced major winter storm threat.
 
Rain Cold said:
I remember seeing that look on the GFS LR maps in mid-December. It wants a southeast ridge sooooo bad. Fun times, GFS.
Click to expand...

Yep, the GFS in general has been second or third rate at best this season. The last few winter storms (esp the one in early January) it tried to drop a trough into the Rockies in the medium-long range, only to eventually cave to other NWP models and suppress our storm from the midwest & Great Lakes into the SE US
 
Kylo said:
GEFS has a few members that support the operation run of some trailing snow.

sn10_024h.us_ma.png
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Another wave developing along the tail end of the front. Doesn't look quite as good as the last threat, at least at this point 10 days out. That said, it will change. A lot.
 
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