P12 is a supercell of snow.
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
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LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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Too early to start drooling, give me that look in 5 days and I will be
Just looking at the maps and I get the feeling that Hampton Roads/Extreme NE North Carolina (KECG) are going to be watching everyone else get in on the fun if this occurs.
Yeah that's a storm and big if it happens. Is this a miller-b? Anybody?
Surprisingly the 18Z EPS/control continues to trend better and is starting to look different (look at the NE US/SE Canada)
The more Arctic origin stuff you dig into SE Canada, the colder the setup would Likely be, clearly can see on the EPS/control that true northern stream is digging more
The more Arctic origin stuff you dig into SE Canada, the colder the setup would Likely be, clearly can see on the EPS/control that true northern stream is digging more
Tonight's WPC 500mb forecast at Day 7 is in lock step with the 12z Euro Ens Mean with respect to the placement of the confluence zone running thru North Carolina. Where will we go from here??
TNweathergurl62
Member
I hope you peeps get an amazing Snow! We had 7+ days of snow in during the middle and snow the week before last! 8;inches of snow that seemed like it would not go away! We Loved it but were getting a bit run down with it. Many good wishes for a great snow for you all! 
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Yeah I think we would have seen some fireworks in a few more frames
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
It sure was, strong SW with CAD pressing down hard. If you start seeing icon showing a cooler surface you better pay attention.
Heights over the NE and our southern stream wave are both south compared to last run on the GFS. Looking like squash city.
NCSNOW
Member
It had the surface below freezing down to rdu and pushing Southwest. Heavy dbz's inbound from deep south. The next to last frame had a transfer to gulf coast 990's, then on frame 180 consolidate inland Mississippi.
Anyway Whos got the Korean model?
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Looks good to me.
6 hours earlier.
6 hours earlier.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Snow breaking out in NC hour 174 on GFS
Yeah this run it has some light snow there as the back door cold front drops south, but the storm is way suppressed, which, I'm fine with that at Day 7 on the GFS given other guidance
It has the exact opposite problem. It has too little of a 50/50 low, which causes the wave to shear out into the ridge and cut.
GFS is tracking this thing across South Florida during a strong El Nino...that's led to positive outcomes in the past (Feb 12, 2010)
Up to now, this is unfolding pretty much textbook like the days of yore with GFS suppressed at this range. GFS keeps the southern wave a little more strung out and less consolidated, but has a good push from the northern vortex and good high pressure up top, which are positive trends if they continue.
NCSNOW
Member
Why wpc trashed it in discussion. It will come around in a few days
rburrel2
Member
Going off the 18z GFS ensembles, suppression is the least of my concerns. Happy to see the 00z GFS stay far south for now.
Nothing about this mean makes me think, "man, I'm concerned there won't be a storm".
Nothing about this mean makes me think, "man, I'm concerned there won't be a storm".
And then watch it slowly start moving north next week.
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NCSNOW
Member
Amen x 1000. That back door front is priority #1 and the confluence trending better and holding serve the next 7 days tracking is the key. Without it, we have no white colored qpf
GFS right in between what we need…the northern upper low either needs to lift out quicker or dig back further west. It’s sticking right where we don’t want it…except it’s 7-8 days away so actually not bad spot to be in.
That omega block is legit though.
That omega block is legit though.
This one has potential for N and NE Ga.
All we can say at this point is that we are tracking the potential for a winter storm across the mid-south, southeast, and southern mid-atlantic for next weekend. All outcomes are possible from no winter storm at all to a winter storm in any and all of those regions, including I-20
Lord have mercy
00z GEFS following same trend of the op 00z GFS - would expect it to end colder and more south than 18z.
NCSNOW
Member
0z ukmet only goes to 144. Very similar to gfs, gefs
GEFS comparison to 18z run
I really like the trend we’re seeing for the lower dewpoints across the northeast. That was IMO the biggest thing that was lacking the last couple days… now it’s showing single digit dewpoints down to the VA/NC line which is seen in the stronger CAD events
GEFS looks great 
Thing I like to see this gefs run Vs the last is a more suppressive nature, the gefs run last run had some big members, but also some mid Atlantic members, I’d prefer the spread to be from hits around here to suppression