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Pattern February 2024

Snowlover87 said:
Atlanta further north and higher in elevation plus Atlanta has colder winters and more precip. All that should equal to more wintry precip.
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Slightly further north and higher elevation yes. However the cold push is often blocked in Atlanta by the mountains to the north and it’s often too far west to get into the deep CAD. Dallas has nothing blocking the cold push so it can score different ways
 
ILMRoss said:
totally get it. we've had some unlucky breaks. i don't think that's cope either- we really have had some bad luck in both synoptic progressions (feb 2021) and not taking advantage in other progressions that favor us that could of produced legitimate big dogs. it's whatever.

but if the pattern favors cads then it favors us east of the apps. that's a physics fact. it only favors us.

i remember the inside jokes from the late 2010s where roxboro/greenville were the "snow capitals of the world (lol)" from late bloomers. that entire time nashville/knox were getting screwed. it's all ebb and flow. i get the skepticism but i think it is healthy to allow yourself some hope. lol.
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Yep, I remember when I first moved out here I was wishing I lived in North Carolina. Couldn’t buy a big snow in Nashville for years. Outside of 2010 and 2011 the 2004-2014 winters were some garbage ones. So many busted forecasts. Air would be too dry or the moisture would break apart when storms rolled into Nashville. Lots of just misses 50 miles south west north or east. It may not be the 60s or 70s but there’s no denying that since 2015 the winters have been much better in Nashville and western middle Tennessee in general.
 
Yellowstone weather said:
The models seem to be accurate only inside of about 4 days. Also I think it's rare for the mj0 to stall or make tight loops outside of the cod.
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They did pretty good picking up this warm spell for while now. Much longer than 4 days out. Also keep seeming to pick up cad late next week as well. over and over
 
Chazwin said:
Slightly further north and higher elevation yes. However the cold push is often blocked in Atlanta by the mountains to the north and it’s often too far west to get into the deep CAD. Dallas has nothing blocking the cold push so it can score different ways
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A lot of times its the energy transfer that kills. Sucks to be in the zone where the gulf meets the Atlantic.
 
Ron Burgundy said:
Miller B’s are the devil. I don’t even track them because it’s just tracking heartbreak around here.
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It’s always interesting me when studying southeast winter storms, specifically the Carolinas and Northern GA, how some areas do better with Miller A and others with Miller B. The coastal plain, Sandhills and eastern Piedmont, and NW Piedmont and foothills north of I-40 do better with a Miller A. Meanwhile the SC upstate, southern NC Foothills and south NC Piedmont including CLT metro do better with a Miller B, then of course back your way does better with Miller A. I’m sure there some reason geographically that causes the SC Upstate over to the southern Piedmont to do so well with a Miller B… those areas always do well when there is a strong FGEN forcing set up like what happened in January 2022.
 
Chazwin said:
It’s always interesting me when studying southeast winter storms, specifically the Carolinas and Northern GA, how some areas do better with Miller A and others with Miller B. The coastal plain, Sandhills and eastern Piedmont, and NW Piedmont and foothills north of I-40 do better with a Miller A. Meanwhile the SC upstate, southern NC Foothills and south NC Piedmont including CLT metro do better with a Miller B, then of course back your way does better with Miller A. I’m sure there some reason geographically that causes the SC Upstate over to the southern Piedmont to do so well with a Miller B… those areas always do well when there is a strong FGEN forcing set up like what happened in January 2022.
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Yep - we get the most brutal dry slots here when the energy transfers to the coast. And we’re too far west to get the precip once that happens. It will bring a snow weenie to tears!
 
I think it's fair that we can be skeptical of long range ideas, while at the same time be optimistic based on Feb-March El Nino climo, MJO progression, and Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) / AAM progression.

Last 3 Euro Wk runs for Feb 7 to Mar 8. If this can hold for the most part, we should have chances show up within that timeframe

Jan 24 Euro Wk Trend.gif
 
NoSnowATL said:
March like temps for most of the country in the first week of February on the 18Z GFS. Really no significant cold air anywhere in the lower 48 and even Quebec is upper 30's. Not good if you want winter weather anytime soon.View attachment 143262
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Why do we keep beating a dead horse: We already know the first week of Feb is a wash.
 
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