If we hit mid feb and see that winter is over. I don’t think we will though.
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Pattern February 2024
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JHS
Member
The 2nd week is probably gone too if the 18z GFS is right. It shows warm weather all the way to northern Minnesota and the snowpack vanishes for the most part east of the Rockies. We have a big southeast ridge this run, with a trough in the west and the storm track west of the Great Lakes with highs near 60 all the way to near Chicago.
18z GFS has a more poleward shifted pacific jet as it enters the US, something that’s not really supported atm. Poleward is bad, equatorial shifted = possibly warm, but also the risk of undercutting and stuff dropping on the east side of the omega block. Still with a eq shifted pac jet, there’s a warm risk, but an increased chance of lower heights below the ridge. Think what gets my interest the most is ENS towards the end starting to get those looks the EC weeklies/GEFS ext show with blocking everything up top especially getting the western Canada/Alaska ridge going and lowering the height field below
coldfront22
Member
Let’s hope the ensembles are on to a pattern change. And the 18z is not the start of 3 weeks or longer of average to above average highs.
It’s a southeast weather forum
Prefer how the euro suite is handling the pacific coast up to AK around D10 and after vs the gfs suite.
But for real, is there a logical explanation for why the good eye candy and patterns are always at the end of the runs? It’s like the models want it to snow here and think it can but then it never happens. Just once can we get a good fantasy storm and then have it trend better and better all the way up till go time.
They revert to what the subseasonal pattern (MJO/ENSO) should produce the farther you get out but they smooth out the little eff ups
There hasn't been a ton of eye candy the last couple of years even in the d7+ range. The reality of it is to me when we see manageable patterns around d7+ you know there's at least some potential to trend better but as you get around and inside of D5 you can get a pretty good feeling of yes or no
weatherfide
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You're in Anderson, SC? You'll know long before mid-February if winter is really over (it is).
Here's a good example of the euro bouncing around later in the run. Historically some of these looks would get mentioned or conversation (i didn't actually look too deep into this so they might but be great just using as an example)
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I still can’t quite figure out where the end of this colder/stormier look is in the very long term (& ultimately “true” the beginning of spring).
Even out into early and even mid March, we still look to be stuck in this -NAO/eastern trough-type look.
The fact that we’ve seen a collapse of the +IOD, are approaching the time of the year where the MJO tends to be amplified/moves more slowly, & Indian Ocean phases (2-3) are actually conducive to eastern troughing, makes me think we’re really in it for the long haul once we get past this Pacific Jet extension.
Even out into early and even mid March, we still look to be stuck in this -NAO/eastern trough-type look.
The fact that we’ve seen a collapse of the +IOD, are approaching the time of the year where the MJO tends to be amplified/moves more slowly, & Indian Ocean phases (2-3) are actually conducive to eastern troughing, makes me think we’re really in it for the long haul once we get past this Pacific Jet extension.
He means winter storm potential.
Early Feb torch starting to go up in flames on the gefs 
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Wake up family, the morning GFS is throwing haymakers.
Perhaps we are starting to cook ? this is similar to the euro 
Cad Wedge NC
Member
