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Pattern February 2024

Myfrotho704_ said:
Thing I like to see this gefs run Vs the last is a more suppressive nature, the gefs run last run had some big members, but also some mid Atlantic members, I’d prefer the spread to be from hits around here to suppression
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The tricky part is keeping that a thing for the next 4-5 days ?. I wouldn't mind losing it entirely tomorrow into Monday/Tuesday
 
1300m said:
Some big dog members in the 06z GEFS.
View attachment 143769
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Is it possible to see the 500mb vort progression for individual members? Would be interested to see why there were so many big dog solutions on the ensemble run. If we could phase into that trough in the NE somebody's gonna get a huge storm

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hky1894 said:
Is it possible to see the 500mb vort progression for individual members? Would be interested to see why there were so many big dog solutions on the ensemble run. If we could phase into that trough in the NE somebody's gonna get a huge storm

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I’m sure the bigger members had more interaction. Both the op and ensemble are trending that way.
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-mslp_multimember_panel-1706421600-1707069600-1707242400-40.gif
 
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I haven't had a 3 inch mean on a GEFS run since at least 2018. Combine that with the fact that this threat is still 8 days away, and... wow!?!
Throw in the fact that most of the members showing no snow, have an ice storm instead. Crazy!

All I care about today is keeping our cold source in tact and pressing south fast. My biggest concern is a lobe of tpv not dropping down in time which is what the 00z Euro showed.
 
Mitch West said:
View attachment 143763Wake up fam, another day of fantastic trends on the way.
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Different set up but kinda similar to February 2014. You see that initial wave riding along the cold front as it’s dropping south and bringing in the cold push from the NNE(great direction for it to come from for everyone east of the Apps). Then you can see the main storm taking show in the Gulf… it will be interesting to see if any of the other models have a solution like this in the coming days.
 
rburrel2 said:
I haven't had a 3 inch mean on a GEFS run since at least 2018. Combine that with the fact that this threat is still 8 days away, and... wow!?!
Throw in the fact that most of the members showing no snow, have an ice storm instead. Crazy!

All I care about today is keeping our cold source in tact and pressing south fast. My biggest concern is a lobe of tpv not dropping down in time which is what the 00z Euro showed.
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Honestly, I’d be more worried about suppression being the end result as to why we don’t get a storm vs what the Euro is showing. This storm has me very interested. I’ve tried not to comment because my luck has been awful tracking what appeared to be good potentials that go poor in the 11th hour. But this a much different setup. Legit blocking with a bombing 50/50 low crawling the progression to a hault. And kicking a SW out of the west with troughing all across the subtropical regions and the south. Right now I want this thing in Cuba because this is the type of setup we usually see the NW trend.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The potential ceiling here is extremely high if you can get everything to line up just right.

Not often you see the subtropical jet this absurdly strong.


View attachment 143771
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This is why I like seeing the suppression we’re seeing on the models right now. With this strong a STJ, you know that this is going to move further north even with a strong press from the northern stream. Yeah it’s been said a lot, but this definitely where we want at this time
 
So it’s much like when I go golfing - I know the left hook is coming on my tee shot. So I aim for the trees to the right and feel pretty good when it is headed in that direction. Still, I need the hook to show up at just the right time- too early and I still end up in the trees to the left. About 2/3 of the time I end up in the fairway. Too late and I clip the tres on the right. Yep, that about sums it up.
 
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