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Pattern February 2024

wxdaniel said:
I thought it was against the rules to post P/Type maps past 240 hours? ? ?
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I wouldn’t get caught up in the details of the maps because these storms may or may not happen or they could have much different timing. The important thing that run showed is why you can’t discount anything coming together when there’s a pattern that promotes strong CAD… especially when you have plenty of snow pack in southeast Canada and the interior northeast
 
Seems like the overnight trend was to pinch off and push a piece of the west coast trough underneath our ridge in the 228-240hr timeframe. Which is exactly what we need to have any chance of a winter storm in the day 10-12 timeframe.

The other piece of the puzzle is we need a strong enough wave to dive down from New England/SE Canada to deliver cold air and reinforce a strong CAD high.

Yesterday the models trended horribly with both these features, and then like magic they've brought them both back from the dead over night. The euro is especially nice with both pieces at hr 240. All we really need is for the maybe for the southern wave to be a tad farther north and a tad quicker as depicted, but it may have worked out as-is.Screen Shot 2024-01-25 at 7.19.10 AM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even more skeptical of this early Feb torch pattern here than I was a few days ago. May not even be much above average at all at this rate

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This is exactly what you have been saying for the last week and why I commented yesterday that you can pretty much throw these surface temp maps in the garbage after early next week. Even this look here doesn’t line up with the 500mb maps for the same time period
 
rburrel2 said:
Seems like the overnight trend was to pinch off and push a piece of the west coast trough underneath our ridge in the 228-240hr timeframe. Which is exactly what we need to have any chance of a winter storm in the day 10-12 timeframe.

The other piece of the puzzle is we need a strong enough wave to dive down from New England/SE Canada to deliver cold air and reinforce a strong CAD high.

Yesterday the models trended horribly with both these features, and then like magic they've brought them both back from the dead over night. The euro is especially nice with both pieces at hr 240. All we really need is for the maybe for the southern wave to be a tad farther north and a tad quicker as depicted, but it may have worked out as-is.View attachment 143290
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One thing that I’ve noticed since the middle of December is how well the snowpack has held on and grown in southeastern Canada… even while the rest of the continent was losing it quickly around Christmas. So it’s no surprise that is where some of the coldest temperatures have been setting up and it’s where our source region is for CAD.
 
The cool thing about the day 10-12 threat is it has mega big dog potential. If we get the undercutting wave and the the stalled atlantic low things are going to slow to a crawl and we could be looking at a prolonged wintry CAD event.

Odds are low everything works out, but at least the potential is there.
 
1707004800-DwRtCcBSGyQ.png

Why oh why could this run not go a little further. By the end of it DP's were dropping like a rock and were almost into single digits already along the NC/VA border. We were on our way to a legit weenie run.
 
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