Even on the ICON, you can see how fast the cold is drained from Canada. I swear, I'm having flashbacks to forecasting Canadian wildfire smoke last summer....
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This oldie from the early 20s almost gets the hemispheric pattern to a T.
Icon was setting up at least an ice storm for nc 
This would be quite satisfactory.
It’s worth noting that the part that can wrong the most (the dumping energy on the eastern side of the omega block) is only 4-5 days out
rburrel2
Member
and the 12z GFS looks great in that department at hr126.
NCSNOW
Member
Havent noticed this energy in Montana before dropping down
Wonder if this helps out the suppression, we’re about to find out 
To my untrained eye it appears the cold is a little faster coming south, wouldn't that lead to more suppression?
rburrel2
Member
Helps with supression and CAD I'd think. This is the safest way we score assuming it drops down hard and heavy in the first place.
The vortex itself is a little bit east should at least result in a stronger southern stream wave
Damn these dews are the equivalent of last week 
That makes sense, thanks.
NCSNOW
Member
Snow breaking out GA
Mercy..I don’t even want it to do it yet. Give it at least a few more days 
It’s Amp up too earlier for me. Nw Trend should have waited until about day 3-4.
Look at the tilt. Not bad
Flotown
Member
meaning u think we gonna trend nw even more,correct?
CMC finally shows something, it’s sloppy but anything is better then it’s previous solutions 
rburrel2
Member
The 12z Ukmet is pretty far east with tpv lobe. Looks like it's winding up tight though. Good or bad?
I think it definitely wouldn't be suppressed and CAD/ high location should be in a really good location.
Our storm forming in the Southwest looks beefy!
I think it definitely wouldn't be suppressed and CAD/ high location should be in a really good location.
Our storm forming in the Southwest looks beefy!
The CMC Caved!
Cmc is phasing in the northern stream so close to an total bomb
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With a TPV extension like that looks like a classic Miller B mix bag setup per that H5 look
Flotown
Member
boy ole boy at the range of possibilities with this thing...
Ain’t no way fam. Bro we just having fun at this point. 
CMC doing that hard headed thing where it slowly moves towards the center of other guidance. Wouldn’t surprise me if it met even more southward tonight and posterized the Carolinas with an epic weenie roast of a run
I’m the reason this showed up by the way
Remember when we used to get setups like this
First call fro-model run for the week 1 Feb winter storm
another screen shot for my what could have been archive
I just ain’t seeing the run of the mill Miller B ingredients here but that’s just maybe because I’m an amateur map reader at best. Usually we get some sort of ridging moving in off the Atlantic in those setups.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Starting to see the classic double-barrel jet look on the GFS & CMC as this thing reaches the SE US Coast
The CMC found another way to make it snow in the SE. It actually drops another short wave pinched off from the northern stream behind the initial system lol.
Double barrel jet = bomb. One of the things you see in severe wx season and you know the setup is gonna be big if there isn’t a bunch of junk
Stay positive. We have to will this into reality.
Looks like this gefs run the vortex is a bit east, but digging more, resulting in colder air entrenched east of the apps 
Trying to temper the interest but hard to deny the models are starting to sound the alarms.
Southern wave is meaty this gefs run, even more then last run 
rburrel2
Member
Just as you'd expect the 12z GEFS is more icy with the eastward shift of tpv and the slightly slower southern wave.
Doesn't hurt my feelings one bit though because I think those trends lead to more wintery hits in general. I'll take sleet and freezing rain
There's no doubt that trend is bad for anyone in the mid-south that doesn't get in on CAD though.
Doesn't hurt my feelings one bit though because I think those trends lead to more wintery hits in general. I'll take sleet and freezing rain
There's no doubt that trend is bad for anyone in the mid-south that doesn't get in on CAD though.