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Pattern February 2024

griteater said:
Hopefully we have multiple chances between early Feb to mid-Mar, but who knows. 1 chance would be a start for us east of the Apps. But yeah, the weeklies try to move things into a better pattern by kicking that SW trough east while building an AK ridge. We actually need some renewed momentum in the Pac Jet to do that because the initial big jet extension coming in a few days dies out.

Just looking at the surface anomaly charts here on the weeklies from Feb 3 to 23, it is showing low pressure in EAsia being replaced with high pressure (+EAMT), and shortly thereafter, the Pac Jet extends and the Aleutian Low swells and moves east...then the southern stream across the CONUS becomes active again. Long way out of course, but that Feb 17-23 timeframe has the best look at the moment IMO.

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I was a little bummed to see today's EPS run losing the -AO...hopefully just a blip. As you pointed out the models evolve the pattern nicely but still by day 15 there is still much work that needs to be done.

If we get to Feb 5-10th and we still aren't seeing a more conducive pattern being modeled in the day 10-15 I will be ready to throw in the towel on this winter.

In the past 20 years (2005-2024) we've only had 2 Feb events in nino's 1"+....so we really have sucked in Feb nino's.

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As mentioned above...EPS lost the -AO...hopefully just a blip. The weeklies have been showing a solid -AO in early Feb for several weeks but that was based on the 0z EPS run. Let's hope the 12z was just a blip.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_dprog-7220800.png
 
I knew the D10 Euro pattern looked to be heading towards familiar territory. Dealing extensively with the Canadian wildfires this past summer, this pattern was persistent for much of June. (June '23 was a top 10-15th coldest on record for much of the Mid-Atlantic).

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1300m said:
I knew the D10 Euro pattern looked to be heading towards familiar territory. Dealing extensively with the Canadian wildfires this past summer, this pattern was persistent for much of June. (June '23 was a top 10-15th coldest on record for much of the Mid-Atlantic).

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Yeah Fro mentioned earlier about how this type of pattern set up that strong wedge last year over Memorial Day weekend and kept much of western and central NC in the 50s during the day.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
trend the last 24 hours. Can’t ask for much more, but we need more. Gotta like that trend around SE Canada View attachment 143369
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I've probably said this here before but I'll say it again. This is so reminiscent to Feb 2015 where the models would consistently lengthen wavelengths in the D7+ then gradually shorten them as we got closer in time. Obviously this setup is different but there are a lot of the same principles
 
KyloG said:
We buying this

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