Nam0806
Member
Way too early to be making any final determinations on this one, really for anyone in the southeastern United States.
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
18Z GFS not quite as suppressed, but less cold too.
Suppression isn’t the issue. Getting the cold air down is the issue.
GFS is so close to a nuke. I mean feet of fantasy snow into the Carolinas. It’s wild what we’re flirting with here 
Dews are so low, as depicted all it would take is precip to amp up and the column would crash accross the board
If you wanted to draw up a look 150hrs out this would be it to a T. Feels like Christmas 2010 but with higher potential
Jan88
Member
I would say at 7 days out the track is not yet decided
not to beat a dead horse but GFS has some single digit dews to the SC/NC border with an already cold surface and a bomb lit in the gulf
Cold push still looks strong… very low dewpoints so any precip would crash the column. Again with that strong a STJ, suppression is the last of my worries. Getting that feed of cold/dry air most important
Jan88
Member
Lot of potential here
At what point this week would you start getting concerned if you still saw suppression?
Exactly, personally at this range, I’m not even really paying attention to what the 2m temps look like. I’m focusing on the 500mb looks, 850 temps and surface dewpoints. The fact that single digit dewpoints are showing at the NC/SC border is the best indicator of just how strong the CAD potential is.
Tuesday or Wednesday
In all honesty about Friday… I know that seems close, but this just has all the earmarks of a set up that things trend NW considerably in the last 72 hours.
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Christmas 2010
Friday night
Yeah wouldn't take much for this to be much further NW that's for sure
Christmas 2010, February 2010, heck even January 2017… this is southern stream system with a strong STJ.
Yeah, it's still cold enough. Verbatim, just barely from my perspective a couple of hundred miles to your SW.
wow
Member
Solid 50/50 low and a robust southern wave.. odds are pretty good this will trend toward a text book snowstorm for the SE.
iGRXY
Member
The day of
Tarheelwx
Member
I keep hearing folks refer to CAD here. But with a strong low off the coast pulling down cold air, it seems to me this really isn’t a case of CAD. Sure “CAD” areas may be in the best area to get snow, but it really has nothing to do with CAD. There are plenty of times CAD areas get snow that have nothing to do with CAD. What am I missing?
TW
TW
packfan98
Moderator
Looks like a bit of a split with the low locations.
All model providers show temperature maps and dewpoint maps, but for winter, what we really need are wet-bulb temperature maps. I think College of Dupage has some, but I swear it seems like they were inaccurate when I last viewed them (not sure though)
What’s the wet-bulb math? I guess I could Google it but is there an easier way to calculate on the fly?
packfan98
Moderator
Much more consensus with the lows in the gulf this run. This is taking away most of the members that had the precip stretched across the Tennessee valley. This at least delays some of the initial precip and have to depend on a strengthening gulf low instead of overrunning.
I think it's a little confusing/messy looking because the models have been advertising two surface low-pressure systems initially.Looks like a bit of a split with the low locations.
Maybe it’s just me but I feel like I hate dealing with that typical frontal crap that hinders our cold air from sinking south. Give me a deepening low to pull that cold air in and vaccum that cold air southwardMuch more consensus with the lows in the gulf this run. This is taking away most of the members that had the precip stretched across the Tennessee valley. This at least delays some of the initial precip and have to depend on a strengthening gulf low instead of overrunning.
Always heard take the difference between temp and dewpoint and divide by 3. Then subtract that from temp. So 38 degrees with a dew of 20 would be wet bulb of 32
Temp of 30 and Dewpoint of 20 is a wet-bulb of 27.....so rough estimate would be 70% between the 2 (i.e. more than half)
Flotown
Member
agree.but still time
You can see from the H5 set up that the strongest cold push is going down the east side of the mountains in a CAD fashion before the storm even arrives. The flow around the storm helps to lock in the CAD and pull more cold air in.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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What about Jan 11’
The thing is that even if we never actually see a phase or if it’s just a bit later, I still think this has a very good chance to trend further north in the Gulf. Like Webb and others have pointed out, we’re dealing with southern stream energy in a very strong STJ. A great example would be the Christmas 2010 storm. The phase didn’t occurs until later as it fired up the low off the coast on Christmas night, but before that during the day, the southern stream wave that fed into the low trended considerably north in the last 24 hours and set up an overrunning event for northern Alabama, northern GA, Tennessee and western NC/SC.
Triplephase93
Member
Like to see a phase to the west and to see and a slightly more inland track to get more of the board involved.
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Lol I bet