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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
lexxnchloe
Member
We have been hearing about a pattern change since mid dec and it hasnt happened yet and likely wont until late march. Dec was +4.6 and Jan +3.4. So for the first 2 months of winter its been warm. A pattern change to me means 2 full months averaging below normal and its already way too late for that to even matter. Maybe next winter jan/feb will avg below normal. Thats a pattern change
The issue I have with Niño winters or really just the pattern we have now is you have an active southern stream that’s low pressure dominant and you’re relying on a low bombing off the northern stream to drag cold air down to meet up with a SS wave. Some sort of perfectly timed phase is your only shot. You never really even get an opportunity to slide high pressure into the setup which is what you want to see for your best snow chances for us snow deprived eastern posters. MSLP maps are just one big blue ball up and down the east coast and it’s been that way all winter. This ain’t it.
0z EPS moved it closer last night to just passed day 10.
When it gets inside day 10 we can start celebrating. I do think the pattern changes but odds of snow is another story.
*therapist turns to the board* and is the pattern change in the room with us right now?
Obviously it’s your opinion, but when you consider that CLT, GSO, RDU, and GSP all average more snowfall and more days with snow being recorded in El Niño years than both La Niña and neutral years, there must be something good about El Niños.
Definitely some decent noise around Valentine’s Day of some sort of Miller A on the EPS/GEFS.
Yes, pattern starting to change day 10-12 but temps will take longer to respond. And I do think we see a solid cold shot like we did for a week in January but avg's are 7-8F higher to end Feb than mid January.
No… all the teleconnections…AO, NAO, PNA, and MJO are still progressing the same they have been.
It definitely could be, but a slow step down in temps very rarely happens like the smoothed out ensembles suggest but also on the flip side the patterns suggested can also look much longer as well.
That said, Im gonna ride with H5 over temp anomalies right now.
One thing that was hammered home to me when I was under the learning tree of mets on WWBB is that the surface catches up to H5 and not vice versa.
One of the biggest things that sticks out to me is the nosedive the AO is about to take. It basically peaks in positive territory today and tomorrow before drops and drops fast. It certainly makes sense that we’re seeing a strong consensus for SPV split in the models
The weeklies graph I posted last night was absolutely incredible. That 6z GEFS image isnt too far off.
This is something my next door neighbor, a retired Navy met, has said on a number of times. He once told that me that he never even looks at a surface temperature map past day 10.
Honestly we need Fro or one of our other “pay for extra models” guys to post an all individual ensemble frame temp anomaly chart to give us better insight. *hint hint*
coldfront22
Member
Looks very warm mid-month. Does everyone expect those temps to decrease as the models get a better handle on the AO nosedive? Models looked much colder in the extended yesterday.