Pattern February 2024

[Webberweather53]

Classic CAD look here at 500mb with active southern stream undercutting a slow eastward moving Canadian ridge & 50-50 low. Just need some minor tweaks to the longwave pattern in the medium range & a properly timed wave in the southern plains

 

[SD]

?

We are starting to pull some really tasty analogs out from the gefs pattern
1960
1969
1981
1983

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s actually the best gefs run yet, looking at H5

 

[KyloG]

GFS week 2 has trended better for blocking...op run so grain of salt but past 5 runs

View attachment 143429

Feb 3/4th was the day models have been trying to take the AO negative. GFS sticking with that.

 

[Metwannabe]

? View attachment 143444

We are starting to pull some really tasty analogs out from the gefs pattern
1960
1969
1981
1983

1960 huh? Apparently Feb and March were amazing, looking at maps the entire state got in on the action at one point or another

 

[Mitch West]

I wish the GEFS had this also with ice. I'd be really interested in seeing a freezing rain mean.

 

[ghost1]

I know this isn’t a popular opinion but after January 31 I’m done with wishing for cold and frozen precip. Give me 55-70 deg highs in Feb. I’m ready for golf/fishing weather

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

def a unique look here. And we like our cold air sourced out of SE Canada. Idk where we go from here but it’s at least interesting

 

[Mitch West]

I know this isn’t a popular opinion but after January 31 I’m done with wishing for cold and frozen precip. Give me 55-70 deg highs in Feb. I’m ready for golf/fishing weather

Dang homie we can't have February at least? Sheesh.

 

[1300m]

Well I just assumed the Euro must not be promising in fantasy range. I assumed wrong.

 

[accu35]

 

[accu35]

 

[Stevo24]

View attachment 143455

Dang and this is before the good pattern even kicks in? Sign me up.

 

[1300m]

This is an unusually complex situation. If you get an Omega block setup like this, unusual things could happen. But it is beyond silly to even think the deterministic guidance will have a chance of resolving this beyond D5.

 

[Tarheelwx]

Still it just doesn't look that cold. For now, I think we'd be more like to get snow or sleet vs. any freezing rain. Maybe the cold comes later.
TW

 

[Mitch West]

First wave doesn't work, wave behind it with a CAD that just got done working in might would do it. Looks great for a timeframe that personally I would consider a bonus if anything happens.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

View attachment 143455

Looks like there were 2 separate waves between 222 and 240

Sent from my SM-A136U1 using Tapatalk

 

[Mitch West]

Look at the CAD working in.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Look at the CAD working in.
View attachment 143458

That isn't CAD necessarily it's an entire cold press across both sides of the mountains because of the high placement being so far west with the cold being further west than normal too. That kind of look you can send a low through and someone would likely see a nice overrunning event.

 

[Mitch West]

That isn't CAD necessarily it's an entire cold press across both sides of the mountains because of the high placement being so far west with the cold being further west than normal too. That kind of look you can send a low through and someone would likely see a nice overrunning event.

That is a good point. Same push on the Western side of the Apps. But that initial push does look like a small scale CAD look.