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Pattern February 2024

We really need the pinched off vortex to our Northeast to shift a little farther east and allow for a more deal CAD high location plus give a little more room for the pacific jet wave to move in. It's a fine line though b/c the cold air already looks to be marginal and shifting too far east eats in to that.

It's all semantic right now though b/c we have no idea if these players will even be in the same ball park going forward.
 
Mitch West said:
Look at the CAD working in.
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Ya got to like the cold pressing down to the central SE states too. Implies staying power for any CAD event rather than an on-set in-situ novelty-type event.

I have weather porn images in my mind of an ice storm changing to snow in my area with that look.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Ya got to like the cold pressing down to the central SE states too. Implies staying power for any CAD event rather than an on-set in-situ novelty-type event.

I have weather porn images in my mind of an ice storm changing to snow in my area with that look.
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Haha seems like it's always the other way around here. You get a nice front end thumping of snow that turns into a ice storm. 2011 was the perfect example of that in Central SC.
 
All of the above images look pretty good and interesting at 500 mb. At the surface, however, temperatures seem very marginal. Slightly below average, but there doesn't seem to be much in the way of a true cold air feed. Clouds and precipitation would obviously keep temps down and the lower heights across the south are good to see. I'm just not sure that the things going on up in the Arctic regions are helping us very much. The big block is interesting, but it doesn't seem to be a help for cold air transport. So, it doesn't look very wintry to me. But I may be missing something.

ecmwf_T2m_namer_65.png
 
Rain Cold said:
All of the above images look pretty good and interesting at 500 mb. At the surface, however, temperatures seem very marginal. Slightly below average, but there doesn't seem to be much in the way of a true cold air feed. Clouds and precipitation would obviously keep temps down and the lower heights across the south is good to see. I'm just not sure that the things going on up in the Arctic regions are helping us very much. The big block is interesting, but it doesn't seem to be a help for cold air transport. So, it doesn't look very wintry to me. But I may be missing something.

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Keep the 500 look and the surface will catch-up
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Keep the 500 look and the surface will catch-up
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What I'm hoping is that the 500 look evolves. The current model depiction (and we all know that things will change) doesn't seem all that favorable to me for areas outside of elevation.
 
This never really looked like a storm that has a ton of arctic air around, those GFS runs the last couple days ago didn’t have really cold snowstorms at all, this is closer to your Nino big dog look, which is normally marginal, (but of course, we would prefer to have arctic air around)
 
Rain Cold said:
All of the above images look pretty good and interesting at 500 mb. At the surface, however, temperatures seem very marginal. Slightly below average, but there doesn't seem to be much in the way of a true cold air feed. Clouds and precipitation would obviously keep temps down and the lower heights across the south are good to see. I'm just not sure that the things going on up in the Arctic regions are helping us very much. The big block is interesting, but it doesn't seem to be a help for cold air transport. So, it doesn't look very wintry to me. But I may be missing something.

View attachment 143470
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You're not wrong. The Euro at D10 was in the process of getting a 50/50 low in position to start training the cold air that is in southeast Canada. The Euro definitely has high pressure in the vicinity but it's certainy too far north as modeled.

To be clear, we don't have any legit storm threats yet (IMO), but ingredients are starting to appear.

6a92f0f9-5767-4f30-923d-239ada89d288.gif
 
1300m said:
You're not wrong. The Euro at D10 was in the process of getting a 50/50 low in position to start training the cold air that is in southeast Canada. The Euro definitely has high pressure in the vicinity but it's certainy too far north as modeled.

To be clear, we don't have any legit storm threats yet (IMO), but ingredients are starting to appear.

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Lots of diverse consensus buzz about ~12th-21st so I'll hold on that. We'll know in a week or so how that window more readily looks though
 
Rain Cold said:
All of the above images look pretty good and interesting at 500 mb. At the surface, however, temperatures seem very marginal. Slightly below average, but there doesn't seem to be much in the way of a true cold air feed. Clouds and precipitation would obviously keep temps down and the lower heights across the south are good to see. I'm just not sure that the things going on up in the Arctic regions are helping us very much. The big block is interesting, but it doesn't seem to be a help for cold air transport. So, it doesn't look very wintry to me. But I may be missing something.

View attachment 143470
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I agree. This pattern is getting all the cold air from the NE flow (which isn't that cold), rather than an Alaskan Ridge bringing in arctic air. Just meh airmass in the CONUS. I fear all we're rooting for here is a cold rain. We need the pacific trough to establish, pump the AK ridge and hope the weeklies are right for mid February, IMO. 2 weeks from now seems like an eternity.

ecmwf_T2ma_us_41.png
 
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