GFS is staying warm as the low treks west to east to Jacksonville
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
I hope this run was a blip. Otherwise, we'll be watching yet another perfect track Miller A Rainstorm.
That’s the eternal struggle in this setup - the cold air and storm are trying to meet head on over the southeast.
If we get anything close to this and it’s too warm… we suck
lexxnchloe
Member
Im not an expert but with the cold going NE to SW and the low coming from the SW its going to be hard to get a winter storm.I hope this run was a blip. Otherwise, we'll be watching yet another perfect track Miller A Rainstorm.
The TPV over NE Canada existing stage right early on was the death knell. One run. The ICON flipped the other way, and we're still a week out so hopefully, we can reel this one back in.
LOTS of changes with that GFS run. Much more interested to see how the GEFS looks
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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I mean you’re not wrong but that’s only snow for me and western NC. I want others to win here
Soundings looked fine for much of nc and northern sc for sleet or snow
CMC absolutely nukes the foothills/western Piedmont 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
That 14.8 is directly over mi casa
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Big Frosty and CAD wedge special
NCSNOW
Member
Anyone still worried about suppresion lol. 50/50 is the key piece that controls our fate
CMC is slowly becoming the best option because it moves the cold feed/confluence to our NE just right before the storm, the GFS is losing our confluence as the storm is approaching and we lose any injection. the CMC is the model imo that’s close to something bigger, if the energy on the CMC entering SE can was more wound up or expansive as the storm was moving in, would have been a bigger run for more
It's an unusual setup. An atypical NE flow that depends on an NE system of sufficient strength and orientation and a southern LP to tap that flow simultaneously. Not the usual 1040HP over-locked in over the NE US that brings the usual CAD.
Let's see what the ensembles look like before letting one disappointing deterministic run for next week before cliff diving.
Pretty noticeable trend a weaker trough in the NE on the GEFS the last couple of runs
Looks like our northern piece of the puzzle dropped in really flat that run? I don’t even know what that was or why
Deja Vu
Not great early on
GFS and CMC both moved more toward a slow moving, wound up bowling ball which would lead to big potential precip wise. This makes sense given the strong El Nino with charged up subtropical jet stream via the recent Pac Jet extension...just need the cold air injection to play ball.
Where did the cold air injection go? It’s been showing for how many runs now and suddenly gone? Do you buy it?
NCSNOW
Member
Ukmet
Just think we gotta sit tight and see how things trend. 6-7 days away is an eternity with model watching. We have a shot / all we can say right now
SnowwxAtl
Member
Nope, I don't buy it. I Think it was just a bad run. Will be back 6z GFS.
That’s admittedly a ugly trend 
rburrel2
Member
over half the ensemble members were too suppressed for a storm at 18z, this may not be a bad thing on this run, (except the trend may continue).
Stormsfury
Member
From bundled to a positively tilted trough. The difference is a surface low that was depicted 992-995mb, to a 1005mb being kicked east fast...
Gefs bullseying the upstate/western NC this run
UKMet was colder with the NE low hanging in there, but not as strong with the southern stream wave. The winning ticket is a strong, slow-moving, bowling ball upper low sliding west to east across the deep south with the NE Low / 50-50 low either hanging in there and sending cold air south or partially phasing some of that NE Low into the southern bowling ball
CMC ens looks really good for NC.. wow 
GEFS 
iGRXY
Member
Would it be a winter storm potential if we didn’t get the inevitable day 7 model screw up to happen? This feels like home right now lol
Skewed by a couple of hits. But those couple of hits are massive. High ceiling on this one for sure
iGRXY
Member
Still a big signal on the GEFS and CMCE. Right now I think this turns to the inevitable I85 north and west cutoff. Now whether that is a cutoff from snow and rain or snow and ice or ice and rain, Idk yet. But I think everyone along and north and west of 85 should be cautiously optimistic. Emphasis should on cautiously
iGRXY
Member
Honestly there’s multiple hits on there and not just from big dogs either.
Although the mean still looks good, the total members with snow south of VA dropped from 9 to 5
Yep just saw that, dang
Here are the CMC Ens 850mb temperature anomalies on Saturday morning, 1 to 2 days before our storm. While I do think this can work, this just speaks to the pre-storm environment and the challenge we're facing with dragging cold air down from SE Canada just prior to the approach of our storm.
ugh it would really suck to waste a tailor made southern stream ULL hammer like this.
if you want some copium- i thought the delta on the GEFS was rather strange- check out how the entire wave train- not just our features, everything- lurches east at 114 hr.
fair reason to believe this run from the american camp is a dud and see what the 6z and 12z can offer. or maybe it's sniffing something out.
if you want some copium- i thought the delta on the GEFS was rather strange- check out how the entire wave train- not just our features, everything- lurches east at 114 hr.
fair reason to believe this run from the american camp is a dud and see what the 6z and 12z can offer. or maybe it's sniffing something out.
