Pattern February 2024

[SD]

I really wish the mid to late week clipper had a colder airmass to work with.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

I really wish the mid to late week clipper had a colder airmass to work with.

If ifs were fifths we’d all be drunk

 

[SD]

Yeah looking about 2/9ish to get that movement. We just gotta hope it transpires that way and doesn’t delay

I'm starting to get a little antsy and concerned about a delay

 

[Cary_Snow95]

I'm starting to get a little antsy and concerned about a delay

We certainly can’t afford it. I know for the last 10 days I’ve been watching it to move forward in models and hasn’t happened yet. Weeklies and extended continue to advertise it but we are already putting all our chips in a 2 week window.

 

[Tarheelwx]

I think weeklies are just an extension of bad long range models. We've been showing the holy grail on weeklies since December I believe.
TW

 

[Metwannabe]

I'm starting to get a little antsy and concerned about a delay

Yep, we're in trouble

 

[Nam0806]

Yep, we're in trouble

Oh well. There’s always next year.

 

[rburrel2]

Well the icon is a huge improvement over the 00z run. Appears to be setting up a 50/50 and hopefully far enough east to get precip in to our area from the undercutting jet.

One problem with this threat is we're having to thread two needles. We need the strong PV lobe, but then we need it positioned so that it doesn't squash/deflect the energy pouring out of the Southwest. So basically, about like every setup we always have, haha.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

For good or ill, the pattern past six days is as uncertain as I ever recall seeing it. Let's see if the other 12Z modeling flips like a landed fish this morning too.

 

[superjames1992]

Seems like patterns often take longer to change than expected, sometimes for good and sometimes for bad. As it is, any delay puts us into the second half of February, where we’re really going to have to hope for a repeat of 2015 or 1960 or else we’re going to be doomed.

 

[Rain Cold]

Well the icon is a huge improvement over the 00z run. Appears to be setting up a 50/50 and hopefully far enough east to get precip in to our area from the undercutting jet.

One problem with this threat is we're having to thread two needles. We need the strong PV lobe, but then we need it positioned so that it doesn't squash/deflect the energy pouring out of the Southwest. So basically, about like every setup we always have, haha.View attachment 143419

There's also one more fairly big needle to thread (my image is at 171 and yours is at 180, but I don't think that matters all that much in this case):

 

[SD]

That's a monster wedge building south on the icon


But this look to the west leaves a lot to be desired

 

[KyloG]

GFS week 2 has trended better for blocking...op run so grain of salt but past 5 runs

 

[NCSNOW]

There's also one more fairly big needle to thread (my image is at 171 and yours is at 180, but I don't think that matters all that much in this case):

RC that's a Junior Varsity Met observation. Haven't you heard before, "It will make its own cold air" and " the rates will trump warm ground temps"

 

[SD]

What a mess

 

[Webberweather53]

The supposed "torch" pattern in early Feb continues to get beaten down

 

[Stevo24]

The supposed "torch" pattern in early Feb continues to get beaten down

View attachment 143434

Honestly I would’ve rather had the torch if it meant snow later on. I’d take that trade off all day. I know there’s no correlation, just saying.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs looks better

 

[rburrel2]

Best run yet for actually showing winter storms. Also a few ice storm members not shown on the snow mean below.

 

[SD]

Hello friends