carolinachaos
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Flotown
Member
Yep. Seems to be what happens here every storm. People start rooting for something so "more are involved" then it's phasing and heading NE through Memphis. We don't need a phase here at all to get more people involved
Again
iGRXY
Member
Yeah no offense to those west of the apps but I’m not worried about getting y’all involved in this. You’ve already had your snow for the season. Us on this side of the mountains deserve something so hell no on a phase west of here lol
They are clearly buying the suppression. But they are wrong from time to time. This place is going to be interesting either way the next few days.
BTW @Triplephase93 I wasn't calling you out specifically. It's just happened a few times the last few years where people start wishing for things then we get way too much of it
I think to get more of the board involved, you don’t want to see an early phase. The best way to get more of the board involved is to move the low along the Gulf coast as the cold push is coming and set up some overrunning. An early phase that puts your area in the best chances for heavy snow absolutely screws those of us east of the mountains who haven’t seen a flake in two years
Snowman63
Member
Triplephase93
Member
Nope it doesn't but at the same time let's not over think this system. Roll the wave W to E between I10 and I20 and a good portion of this board scores. This is one of the better board wide setups that you can get on paper
Just in case next week doesn't work out...
2010 all over againJust in case next week doesn't work out...
You are exactly right. Gulf low with overrunning on the north side is the best case scenario. But man that confluence is stout. As modeled it's going to be hard for that wave to come north to do that. Now we know these models are not correct this far out and that confluence probably will relax some. But if it does will we even be cold enough then? If it's not cold enough it really won't matter if it's Miller A, Miller B, late bloomer, earlier phaser or even a perfect track.
We have not had any snow in Birmingham.
J1C1111
Member
February 2010 and Christmas 2010 as others have mentioned.
Suppression isn’t the issue, cold air especially for us in the western SE is. Honestly, look at it like this, we in the western SE are probably on the outside looking in unlike those in east GA, SC and NC. If you look at it like that, you won’t be as disappointed yet could be surprised.
How about we bomb out a 985 surface low offshore Mobile and we all score?
SnowwxAtl
Member
Usually, and I am using that word lightly, the closer we get the time frame the wedge becomes stronger and even filter into East AL. I haven't seen that in awhile but it is very possible.
I actually feel pretty good about the cold push right now, especially with the snow cover and cold in south east Canada that there to be tapped… the dewpoints we’re seeing even in the ensembles look great. As for the Gulf low moving far enough north to produce overrunning, I think there’s a good chance of it simply because of how strong that STJ is right now. As Webb has pointed out, there’s certainly some things looking in our favor
Yep the darkest day in snow watching for me is what I fear. Definite similarities to March 2nd 2010.
Completely agree. It definitely can should the conditions be right.
Flotown
Member
think us out west is out of this one...even if it goes a little north just dont see the cold
It seems to retract pretty quickly just based off of current models. If we are to get any accumulation I don’t see it lasting long but beggars can’t be choosers and I’ll take what I can get. Hopefully this isn’t the last chance this winter!
SnowwxAtl
Member
Jeremyt, rule of thumb, don't ever bet against a CAD/Wedge. Models always eroded the CAD and wedge very quickly.
Honestly that is the best type of accumulation IMO.
I remember the February 2014 storm, the wedge pushed into east Alabama and you could actually see it getting pulled into the gulf low as it passed
SnowwxAtl
Member
Exactly, I recalled that storm very well. my area was expected to get close to .50 worth of ice, especially east of ATL. However, that wedge was so dang strong and strout (slightly undermodeled) that is went from freezing rain and quickly to sleet most the storm before turning into some brief snow. I was worried about power going out at my house, but the sleet saved the day. I prefer the Jan '14 storm, but we live in the south. You take what you can get. But that storm was so sleety...lol
Yeah, if the GFS is generally right, we won't be dealing with cutters, runners, or Miller Bs. The 50/50 strengthens and stays virtually in place. Ridging develops to the north and helps to keep it in place. The southern stream has no choice but to be directed underneath. This looks to be a classic Gulf low scenario that doesn't climb through the Piedmont, short of massive phasing....at least that's what is being shown now. It's been a long time.
Yes and really the 12z EURO is showing this same thing… it just for some reason had no moisture to the west and northwest of the low
Obviously a Dr. is far more versed than me in model interpretation, but how many models are showing this scenario? Are these outliers and he is showing possibility or is he dying on this hill like some here saying it’s impossible?According to Jonathan…
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accu35
Member
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A week away and you think we are out of the game? Operational runs will mess with your head this far out. It wouldn’t take but a couple degrees for this to go pound town for Alabama especially if we get a 992/993 low in the gulf. This has big potential to be a board wide hit.
Tsappfrog20
Member
He is just showing it is possible that suppression may not happen like some are currently suggesting
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I thinks he’s simply just showing 2 model runs and not really stating anything else.
Jon is smart and used to post here. But you don't need a degree to understand that there are quite a few scenarios on the table for a potential winter storm a week away. I wish he would post here again.
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I’m pretty sure it’s a PharmD anyway ?
howdy
to be clear. i think this look is in the company of feb 2021, dec 2018 in terms of "big dog potential 8 days out". the players on the field are unimpeachable. however.
i think it's ok to be frightened by suppression. this is a point based more on vibes than meteorology but i think this storm is similar to dec 2018 by virtue of being laterally moving southern stream qpf bomb. my memory was, 8-9 days out, modeling for that storm had a sawed off shotgun spread, some suppressed, some going up the coast, but generally the consensus was in the carolinas.
so it's giving me a bit of pause that the consensus is a suppressed whiff.
on the other hand, i think there's some convective feedback issues right now with long range modeling. see below for latest gfs:
do not think the main llc will be associated with a MCS racing to bermuda. this is the kind of thing that can mess with moisture transport and amplification in modeling and why i like to see how CAMs handle things before writing a storm off.
to be clear. i think this look is in the company of feb 2021, dec 2018 in terms of "big dog potential 8 days out". the players on the field are unimpeachable. however.
i think it's ok to be frightened by suppression. this is a point based more on vibes than meteorology but i think this storm is similar to dec 2018 by virtue of being laterally moving southern stream qpf bomb. my memory was, 8-9 days out, modeling for that storm had a sawed off shotgun spread, some suppressed, some going up the coast, but generally the consensus was in the carolinas.
so it's giving me a bit of pause that the consensus is a suppressed whiff.
on the other hand, i think there's some convective feedback issues right now with long range modeling. see below for latest gfs:
do not think the main llc will be associated with a MCS racing to bermuda. this is the kind of thing that can mess with moisture transport and amplification in modeling and why i like to see how CAMs handle things before writing a storm off.
I get that, I was more alluding to those finding anything they can to say there’s no chance of this amounting to anything 7-8 days out than anything. I’ll keep this stuff in banter going forward
Yeah I certainly would not put northern Alabama and Mississippi out of it yet, but I do agree that cold is a bigger question mark than further east. However, you’re right that if there were a more amped and deeper low along the Gulf coast then those areas might be able to take advantage of some strong FGEN forcing that would help with dynamic cooling of the column