backdoor front?
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Euro ends off beautifully 
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I hate to make this comparison, but it's almost the exact same wave orientation. Just pull the low into SE Canada and let the wave develop.
Ok I’m glad someone said before me, but I couldn’t help but notice this.
griteater
Member
Greenland / Davis Strait ridges are nice, but nothing can block up and slow down the flow across the CONUS like a slow-moving low over the Northeast / off the NE Coast.
Absolutely beautiful progression right there. Interested to see if the EPS continues or picks up more in the signal. Had some hits last night for this period
The one big difference I see is the big block over Greenland in 2004, with the weaker one in Central Canada. It allows for a slower lift-out of the 50/50 off the NE coast and the trajectories out of Canada are more favorable. I would guess that the air to the north would be chillier too, but without the maps, it would just be a guess. Anyway, it's remarkably similar, other than that. Here's a map of that event, from the NWS in Raleigh:
Looking at Grit's animation above, there appears to be just enough ridging north of the low to hold it in place longer. Big, big positive factor, if true.
EPS looks better so far, better trough around Atlantic Canada and a stronger ridge in Canada 
griteater
Member
Control run pulls the ol' weathermachine(deep deep cut) move and crush, kills and destroys the storm to the south.
SnowwxAtl
Member
Prolly suppose to be whamby, but this take me down everytime! ?????
Still a weak signal on the EPS like last run, but making strides at H5, digging the Atlantic Canada trough more, raising heights over the Great Lakes and Canada and loosing the subtropical ridge influence, and the shortwave looking much improved. Plenty of time here to turn this into something or trend worse. Normally in my experience CAD winter storms like to show up between day 7-10, this is barely entering day 10 
RIP early Feb torch 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Earlier Feb looks the most promising to me with a mega CAD event most likely
That's a southern slider set-up isn't it?
It would be if we can keep the 50/50 in place.
griteater
Member
Hopefully we have multiple chances between early Feb to mid-Mar, but who knows. 1 chance would be a start for us east of the Apps. But yeah, the weeklies try to move things into a better pattern by kicking that SW trough east while building an AK ridge. We actually need some renewed momentum in the Pac Jet to do that because the initial big jet extension coming in a few days dies out.
Just looking at the surface anomaly charts here on the weeklies from Feb 3 to 23, it is showing low pressure in EAsia being replaced with high pressure (+EAMT), and shortly thereafter, the Pac Jet extends and the Aleutian Low swells and moves east...then the southern stream across the CONUS becomes active again. Long way out of course, but that Feb 17-23 timeframe has the best look at the moment IMO.
