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Pattern February 2024

Billypg70 said:
He,
We East of the Apps have a right to be skeptical at this point.
He's not saying it won't or can't happen.
Just take everything with skepticism until we close in on 72 hours then you can really start to buy in...
Maybe us East of the Apps ppl want to see actual frozen precip falling & sticking before we completely buy in...
Being skeptical is a Self defense mechanism at some point.
Click to expand...
Skepticism is understood, but that's different than constant negativity to me. Sorry, just my 2 cents. Hope we all do great in Feb.!
 
Billypg70 said:
He,
We East of the Apps have a right to be skeptical at this point.
He's not saying it won't or can't happen.
Just take everything with skepticism until we close in on 72 hours then you can really start to buy in...
Maybe us East of the Apps ppl want to see actual frozen precip falling & sticking before we completely buy in...
Being skeptical is a Self defense mechanism at some point.
Click to expand...
totally get it. we've had some unlucky breaks. i don't think that's cope either- we really have had some bad luck in both synoptic progressions (feb 2021) and not taking advantage in other progressions that favor us that could of produced legitimate big dogs. it's whatever.

but if the pattern favors cads then it favors us east of the apps. that's a physics fact. it only favors us.

i remember the inside jokes from the late 2010s where roxboro/greenville were the "snow capitals of the world (lol)" from late bloomers. that entire time nashville/knox were getting screwed. it's all ebb and flow. i get the skepticism but i think it is healthy to allow yourself some hope. lol.
 
ILMRoss said:
totally get it. we've had some unlucky breaks. i don't think that's cope either- we really have had some bad luck in both synoptic progressions (feb 2021) and not taking advantage in other progressions that favor us that could of produced legitimate big dogs. it's whatever.

but if the pattern favors cads then it favors us east of the apps. that's a physics fact. it only favors us.

i remember the inside jokes from the late 2010s where roxboro/greenville were the "snow capitals of the world (lol)" from late bloomers. that entire time nashville/knox were getting screwed. it's all ebb and flow. i get the skepticism but i think it is healthy to allow yourself some hope. lol.
Click to expand...
When I originally began posting in the early 2000s, Nashville had been in some ungodly streak where they hadnt seen a snow larger than 3" in 15 or 20 years.
 
Stormlover said:
Are you just going to say that every time something positive is posted in the extended time? Why? We get it, you don't believe any of them. Ok.
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Show me where I say something like this every time someone posts the Weeklies or the CFS or whatever. I'm not criticizing the poster at all. We don't have ANYTHING to talk about in the short term, so long term hope is pretty much all we have. I was simply pointing out that given what we've seen all winter long (and you can go back and reread these threads if you don't believe it) is great 13,992 hr EXT and Weekly runs. I post long range stuff too. But it's ok to be a little skeptical about it. And tbh, the post was mostly in jest anyway.
 
Stormlover said:
Skepticism is understood, but that's different than constant negativity to me. Sorry, just my 2 cents. Hope we all do great in Feb.!
Click to expand...
I get ur point..
Didn't u just get a winter storm with staying power?
Wasn't their some type of snow or combo of winter precip in ur area for 5-7 days + on the ground?
Us ppl on this side of the Mountain range are pushing Two years Wo measurable snow.
In many cases it's the first time for many ppl on this board N&W of 85 lives to go this long Wo snow.
So pls forgive us for being a lil harsh.
Many of these places average a lil more than your area.
It's a bitter pill to swallow for us seeing places just to our west or south west jackpot over a 5 year period while we get nothing or beg for scraps.
We are not envious,
But surely you guys to our west understand our skeptical approach at this point.
No one wants it more than us right now..
But how many times does Lucy pull the football before you stop trying to kick it?
Fool me once shame on you,
Type of deal!
Btw
I'm happy you guys got yours.
Hoping we get ours before this season is over or we are going to shatter snow drought records for areas NW of 85 in the Carolinas.
If you think it's ugly in here now.
Let us get to Jan next year with these areas not getting a flake!
It will be brutal...
 
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ILMRoss said:
totally get it. we've had some unlucky breaks. i don't think that's cope either- we really have had some bad luck in both synoptic progressions (feb 2021) and not taking advantage in other progressions that favor us that could of produced legitimate big dogs. it's whatever.

but if the pattern favors cads then it favors us east of the apps. that's a physics fact. it only favors us.

i remember the inside jokes from the late 2010s where roxboro/greenville were the "snow capitals of the world (lol)" from late bloomers. that entire time nashville/knox were getting screwed. it's all ebb and flow. i get the skepticism but i think it is healthy to allow yourself some hope. lol.
Click to expand...
Your right,
In one of my earlier posts.
I eluded to the fact there's been many many times that being on the East side of the Apps have benefitted us more than hurt.
It's happened a lot in my lifetime,
And I'm in my mid 50's.
So maybe it's just their time.
Boy that's no consolation Rn being in this snow drought.
But the pattern upcoming looks like it is close to ideal for CAD areas and I live in a great location for that in NE GVL county.
So I'm keeping my spirits up...
Very hopeful.
Ty for contributing btw,
Your a huge asset here.
 
Rain Cold said:
Show me where I say something like this every time someone posts the Weeklies or the CFS or whatever. I'm not criticizing the poster at all. We don't have ANYTHING to talk about in the short term, so long term hope is pretty much all we have. I was simply pointing out that given what we've seen all winter long (and you can go back and reread these threads if you don't believe it) is great 13,992 hr EXT and Weekly runs. I post long range stuff too. But it's ok to be a little skeptical about it. And tbh, the post was mostly in jest anyway.
Click to expand...
I think where the issue comes in is that warmth is somehow not shown the same sort of skepticism as positive things.
 
Billypg70 said:
I get ur point..
Didn't u just get a winter storm with staying power?
Wasn't their some type of snow or combo of winter precip in ur area for 5-7 days + on the ground?
Us ppl on this side of the Mountain range are pushing Two years Wo measurable snow.
In many cases it's the first time for many ppl on this board N&W of 85 lives to go this long Wo snow.
So pls forgive us for being a lil harsh.
Many of these places average a lil more than your area.
It's a bitter pill to swallow for us seeing places just to our west or south west jackpot over a 5 year period while we get nothing or beg for scraps.
We are not envious,
But surely you guys to our west understand our skeptical approach at this point.
No one wants it more than us right now..
But how many times does Lucy pull the football before you stop trying to kick it?
Fool me once shame on you,
Type of deal!
Btw
I'm happy you guys got yours.
Hoping we get ours before this season is over or we are going to shatter snow drought records for areas NW of 85 in the Carolinas.
If you think it's ugly in here now.
Let us get to Jan next year with these areas not getting a flake!
It will be brutal...
Click to expand...
Yeah, I think that's a good point, most on here seem to be in the Carolinas area, and it has been really tough over there. Just seems like this setup in Feb will be farther east and hopefully all of us score(and the week we just had turned out to be no fun, it was sleet and freezing rain(a few miles away got 4 to 6 inches). Good luck to all.
 
BullCityWx said:
When I originally began posting in the early 2000s, Nashville had been in some ungodly streak where they hadnt seen a snow larger than 3" in 15 or 20 years.
Click to expand...
next city to break that is hopefully atlanta. always though atlanta just gets the short end of the stick every time. you'd think it'd be easier to get a 3-4 inch snow every decade or so there!
 
ILMRoss said:
next city to break that is hopefully atlanta. always though atlanta just gets the short end of the stick every time. you'd think it'd be easier to get a 3-4 inch snow every decade or so there!
Click to expand...
They had a good stretch from 2009 through 2011. March 1, 2009, February 12, 2010, and January 9, 2011 were all 4+ inch events.
 
ILMRoss said:
next city to break that is hopefully atlanta. always though atlanta just gets the short end of the stick every time. you'd think it'd be easier to get a 3-4 inch snow every decade or so there!
Click to expand...
We need another BIG dog. Been a while since we had a Historic South East Storm like 93,Crusher,Jan88,Dec 2002, Feb 28,2004.
If I had the ability to order off a Mother Nature menu ( and I dont) , I'd throw all my marbles at a "One for the History Books" Storm. Even running the risk of getting screwed by a few miles etc.
My opinion that Hoping to catch a March 1960 or Feb 87 or March 2014 Pattern would be harder to pull off this year than just getting the stars to line up and Plaster some lucky folks on here. We are way past due . Be a good way to rinse out all the soon to be past 2 seasons of misery's
 
I think getting anything frozen on this board before Feb 10th is not likely although I also think the torch is overblown too here in the SE. It is tough to count on an operational model 7-10 days out but that holds true for the ensembles sometimes as well, so I am in a wait and see mode. Looking at the teleconnections all the ensembles show very favorable indices for the period from Feb 17-March 10 or so. I see the AO going negative and staying there. the NAO mostly negative, the PNA mostly very positive, the EPO and WPO do fluctuate a little between positive and negative but higher on the negative side.
 
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