Alaska ridge/ torch, is what you always wanna see!
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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
SASQUATCH
2-Time Defending SouthernWX Fantasy Football Champ
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2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Poor Ice Road Truckers. Gonna reek havoc on the Dalton Haul Road!
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I don't do feelings to much cause they are just rooted from my own desires, but I do think we get a classic big ole CAD storm in February.
And just like that the eps mean temps cooled 3-4 degrees and havoc was created with some fairly monster spreads
More of this please. Increasing ridging over AK or pulling the CAN ridge back west allows for more cold energy to be directed down the eastern side of the ridge into the eastern US. This in turn should set up a pretty nice wave train at least across SE can into the natl which could help be the catalyst for flexing the NAO -. You can see that action on this r2r change plot. After looking pretty bad for days it's good to see some instability in the eps. That monster omega block with the ridge axis over the eastern US wouldn't have been the death of winter but it would have put it in the hospital
This might be a stupid question and this is something I seldom worry about at this range, but is that the type of set up that can squash all of the energy too far south in the GOM?
It's very possible at least for a time. This setup is going to be fun to watch from a weather nerd perspective but those wanting to see purples and model snow its going to struggle to watch. That ridge axis location, how waves break down the eastern side, any CAD influence, the pac jet momentum and eastward extent are all going to combine for a huge spectrum of outcomes from potential snow, to cold and dry, to mundane and normal, to warm and wet, to near record highs.
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It’s beneficial as well that wavelengths start shortening over the next couple of weeks which allows room for a more amplified pattern in general. Last late spring/summer was a good example of the omega block in Canada being good for - departures across the east, and the reason why Memorial Day I was nearly suicidal
Memorial Day weekend last year for us in the Carolinas was absolutely miserable. We deserve the payoff after that for the similar set up in February to give us a huge dump of snow.
That weekend was so awful. We were like 30 degrees below normal that weekend. Absolutely awful. I hope this upcoming one is in the upper 90s. That’s another form of revenge. May cutoffs suck
We were wedged and in the lower 60s with lows making it in the mid 50s. Charlotte is not in Georgia @SoutheastRidge
We were completely wedged in that weekend in the CLT area. Temperatures fell into the 50s overnight on Friday and stayed there with on/off light rain and drizzle through Sunday night. Just a miserable weekend. The sun finally broke through on Memorial Day itself in time to get us up close to 70.
Super CAD incoming
That mslp pattern is a pants explosion @Jimmy Hypocracy 
Looks like the wave is getting held back so probably not big in the winter department, but point stands, looks wedgy with the ridge axis in Canada/the Great Lakes
Well of course the wave gets held back. What else is new. This will be another decent pattern with nada to show for it.
Lol gfs tried for the actual Don cane 
griteater
Member
Euro Weeklies run:
1) 30-day average for Feb 7 - Mar 8 (500mb)
2) Coldest week Feb 13-20 (500mb)
3) Coldest week Feb 13-20 (850 Temps)
1) 30-day average for Feb 7 - Mar 8 (500mb)
2) Coldest week Feb 13-20 (500mb)
3) Coldest week Feb 13-20 (850 Temps)
Flotown
Member
pretty impressive this far out...looks like overunning potential for lots of people...correct?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm still not really convinced of the "big torch" pattern in early Feb that's been discussed on social media, esp over the SE US and coastal mid-Atlantic. Mild maybe, but unseasonably so? I doubt it outside the Great Lakes, south-central Canada & Midwest.
Pacific jet is extending yes, but it's also shifting equatorward, which opens the door for troughs to cut underneath, esp in El Niño years like this.
Active southern stream w/ a Canadian blocking ridge over the top & a sneaky trough lurking off the East Coast & Atlantic Canada is usually how you get cold air damming.
Pacific jet is extending yes, but it's also shifting equatorward, which opens the door for troughs to cut underneath, esp in El Niño years like this.
Active southern stream w/ a Canadian blocking ridge over the top & a sneaky trough lurking off the East Coast & Atlantic Canada is usually how you get cold air damming.