• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February 2024

KyloG said:
The blocking day 10+ on the Canadian ens is really sick too...
Click to expand...
I'll be honest the eps is really playing the wet blanket and tempering my excitement since it's drastically different vs the op gfs and to a degree the gefs. Obviously with more members there's a tendency to smooth and over extend wavelengths on the ensemble means but even the eps plumes are fairly unimpressive for cold after the trough next week. Really need to get more evidence that the jet is going to undercut this block and we omega it and introduce cold down the eastern side.

I loathe the idea of having to wait until the pna spikes to really force this ridge out but I don't think it's an impossible idea.
 
1707242400-9m4RgYtoupQ.png

Central Canada Ridging with Ridging starting to poke in Greenland. Nice deep trough in the 50/50 Regions and a very active southern stream. All of those heights in Canada and the midwest will build HP with a nice cold air feed to easts east. This is a very interesting look for those of us East of the mountains.
 
SD said:
I'll be honest the eps is really playing the wet blanket and tempering my excitement since it's drastically different vs the op gfs and to a degree the gefs. Obviously with more members there's a tendency to smooth and over extend wavelengths on the ensemble means but even the eps plumes are fairly unimpressive for cold after the trough next week. Really need to get more evidence that the jet is going to undercut this block and we omega it and introduce cold down the eastern side.

I loathe the idea of having to wait until the pna spikes to really force this ridge out but I don't think it's an impossible idea.
Click to expand...
CMC-e and GFS-e have high pressuring traversing the arctic, we obviously need the pacific to improve some but if the atlantic can help this is looking promising for mid-Feb and on.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-7393600.png
 
SD said:
I'll be honest the eps is really playing the wet blanket and tempering my excitement since it's drastically different vs the op gfs and to a degree the gefs. Obviously with more members there's a tendency to smooth and over extend wavelengths on the ensemble means but even the eps plumes are fairly unimpressive for cold after the trough next week. Really need to get more evidence that the jet is going to undercut this block and we omega it and introduce cold down the eastern side.

I loathe the idea of having to wait until the pna spikes to really force this ridge out but I don't think it's an impossible idea.
Click to expand...
Yea. The GFS has virtually no support from it's ensembles either. Almost all of them develop a massive/crawling spinning low over the central plains instead of undercutting the ridge in the 240-300hr timeframe.

I'm fine accepting that fate though. It seems like it'll be a delayed not denied situation, where even if we don't get that pattern as quick as the GFS shows, it should come soon after.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top