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Pattern February 2024
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
End of the GEFS is in the beginning stages of making February great again.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Biggest thing we have to fix is the trough off Atlantic Canada (50/50 low). We'll have to see if we get a favorable trend there in the medium range.
Really curious if this look is caused by the ridge blocking the PV south
griteater
Member
Long range consistency between the Euro Wk and GEFS Ext for 7-day avg Feb 13-20
I think it's mostly caused by the "EXT" after "GFS".
Okay cool
griteater
Member
This jet ext is more of a hit-and-run and doesn't look as bad as the one in late Dec. Low pressure moves west to east across Asia in the Jan 27-Feb 2 timeframe which helps with the pullback downstream
I mean, I like the pretty image, but we've seen similar images more than a few times this winter, along with commentary about how we used to laugh people off of boards for posting 384 GFS maps in the main threads. I do hope it's right.
The 00z GFS has some insane CAD.
Classic ice storm in midlands the way it used to be.
GFS with a big bone! Jimmy going pants shopping tomorrow 
We are gonna walk right into a wedge setup if we continue this 
Really the trend we want to see the next couple of days since there’s plenty of time (and if you want to score in this type of pattern consisting of the Canadian ridge/omega block, Is a shortening of wavelengths, and most importantly in this setup is getting some pieces of northern stream/a TPV extension to dig down and phase with the energy in the Atlantic, preferably around and S/SW of Atlantic Canada, tilt the ridge axis slightly more positive in order to suppress the height field further, and a stronger ATL trough in general to suppress any subtropical ridge influence. Biggest thing I wanna see right now is to continue backing up those lower heights in the Atlantic and deepening it around Atlantic Canada, and getting a better N/S fetch to inject a valid cold source into the Atlantic trough and would be trailing high. Ens still look warm in general, but the 00z EPS and especially 06z GEFS made some strides for the better. A lot of these damming setups often show up in the medium range anyways 
rburrel2
Member
There's been very little support for wintry on the GEFS members, but that's roughly like 8 of the last 10 GFS runs that has showed a CAD winter storm 300+ hours out, (06z run didn't). Prior to this stretch the GFS has been very stingy with fantasy storms showing basically none at all most of the winter.
Seems like a solid signal that something might be brewing, I just hope the ensembles catch on to the threat soon.
Either way I've got a feeling if we miss out on this one, the following week should be rife with opportunities as well.
Seems like a solid signal that something might be brewing, I just hope the ensembles catch on to the threat soon.
Either way I've got a feeling if we miss out on this one, the following week should be rife with opportunities as well.
This is a solid notice. I've mentioned a couple times that since I would say last Winter, the GFS has really got a hold of itself with dishing out fantasy runs left & right. I think as you said, we MIGHT be able to respect noise 300+ hours out on the GFS a little more IF something does play out in that timeframe of interest showing up.
Stormlover
Member
Are you just going to say that every time something positive is posted in the extended time? Why? We get it, you don't believe any of them. Ok.
Order #: 111-3877115-9554608
Cold Rain, I must agree with you. I have watched for years and have commented several times that a lot of folks are wishing our lives away with a 10 day forecast that never makes it 10 days. Yes I am in the same row boat as many I hope that it comes THRU !
Cold Rain, I must agree with you. I have watched for years and have commented several times that a lot of folks are wishing our lives away with a 10 day forecast that never makes it 10 days. Yes I am in the same row boat as many I hope that it comes THRU !
He,
We East of the Apps have a right to be skeptical at this point.
He's not saying it won't or can't happen.
Just take everything with skepticism until we close in on 72 hours then you can really start to buy in...
Maybe us East of the Apps ppl want to see actual frozen precip falling & sticking before we completely buy in...
Being skeptical is a Self defense mechanism at some point.