Pattern February 2024

[iGRXY]

Models looking good. Can anyone tell me when it will snow in Miami?

When they serve ice water in hell

 

[Myfrotho704_]

GFS more poleward with the omega block already, should result in something better (I think)

 

[AJ1013]

When they serve ice water in hell

Given the direction the world's been heading it sounds like I can count on snow soon!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Dude that’s beautiful

 

[BHS1975]

Dude that’s beautiful View attachment 143686

CAD on roids.


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[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Dude that’s beautiful View attachment 143686

If we can’t score on this type setup/look, I’m checking out for this winter.

 

[Carolina Jones]

If we can’t score on this type setup/look, I’m checking out for this winter.

Heard that one before.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

well that’s different. She’s tapped in

 

[Tarheel1]

JoeB favoring areas between 70 and 40 early on. Where we chasing?View attachment 143677

Isn’t he like 0-67 with southern storms and winter outlooks??

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Some of our best storms happen when it’s mid 60’s the day before we

 

[1300m]

In my opinion, if we verify this H5 look it will be extremely unlucky if we didn't phase at least some energy from the northern stream PV.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like it’s gonna get shoved South a bit, but damn this look is rare, it’s hard enough to get good ol southern stream cutoff/SE can vortex like this to line up

 

[Tarheel1]

Some of our best storms happen when it’s mid 60’s the day before View attachment 143692we

Back door action! Dec ‘02 style

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Looks like it’s gonna get shoved South a bit, but damn this look is rare, it’s hard enough to get good ol southern stream cutoff/SE can vortex like this to line up View attachment 143690View attachment 143691

could have worked. Guess we would have needed this thing to really blow up and tug poleward

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’d say the OP GFS has been looking much much better, and is getting closer back to those big runs, trending to a clear defined southern wave, staying consistent with the SE can/NE US vortex

 

[Mitch West]

Orangeburg sleet storm son

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Two LP’s?

 

[Webberweather53]

If only.

 

[Flotown]

feel like th op is gonna go Boom for somebody soon

 

[Stormdoc]

Two LP’s?View attachment 143700

Consolidate that mess and it would have blown up

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs looks like a little step back with a weaker vortex

 

[Ollie Williams]

Gefs looks like a little step back with a weaker vortex

It actually ends up stronger and a bit more consolidated to the northwest. A good help with our precipitation shield.

 

[whatalife]

Surface maps but that’s nice.

 

[KyloG]

Reminds me of mid Feb 87

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I’ll shut my mouth

 

[SD]

Gefs looks like a little step back with a weaker vortex

I'm torn on this. The euro solution is a shot at an all timer but it can easily miss S and E. Establishing space between the shortwave and vortex gives us more moisture and probably a shot at a leading fgen thump but ptypes and warm noses become a problem

 

[Tsappfrog20]

I’ll shut my mouthView attachment 143709

Looks great to me


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[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Mitch West]

My boy @Myfrotho704_ poppin bottles as we speak.

 

[packfan98]

I’ll shut my mouthView attachment 143709

nah, you were right. Very few suppressed solutions. The Mid Atlantic crew have to be drooling. I'm not too unhappy with where we are sitting though.

 

[JHS]

Reminds me of mid Feb 87

View attachment 143708
View attachment 143707

I'd take that and be happy. We got around 2 inches of sleet here with that storm.

 

[KyloG]

I'm torn on this. The euro solution is a shot at an all timer but it can easily miss S and E. Establishing space between the shortwave and vortex gives us more moisture and probably a shot at a leading fgen thump but ptypes and warm noses become a problem

I’m worried about temps if it’s just strictly a southern low. A phase with the northern low helps. Go big I say.

 

[griteater]

I'm torn on this. The euro solution is a shot at an all timer but it can easily miss S and E. Establishing space between the shortwave and vortex gives us more moisture and probably a shot at a leading fgen thump but ptypes and warm noses become a problem

That’s the challenge - we can get it cold and we can get a storm, but can we get both? The KMA (and Euro in the east) with the northern stream partially dropping in is probably our best shot at getting both on a wide scale

 

[jrips27]

 

[Cary_Snow95]

It actually ends up stronger and a bit more consolidated to the northwest. A good help with our precipitation shield.
View attachment 143703View attachment 143704

998 on a mean. Sheeeesh

 

[SD]

If we get into phase 8 lord have mercy

 

[Snowfan]

If we get into phase 8 lord have mercyView attachment 143713

/when

 

[Myfrotho704_]

If we get into phase 8 lord have mercyView attachment 143713

El Niño + phase 8 + Feb and March = banger analogs

 

[SD]

/when

I'm not sure the CHI plots are bothering me with some stuff going on back toward the MC. @Webberweather53 thoughts?