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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Looking at the NAM and I just realized that it has sped up somewhat instead of coming in 21z Thursday it's now around 12z Thursday.
 
I haven't checked any soundings or maps yet, but if the NAM has a warm nose, then you can almost take that to the bank every time. Wouldn't be surprised to see that start to get established and trend stronger, which sucks.
 
yeah, NAM may be on to something, its showing what normally happens, stronger WAA, lots of frontogenesis, warm nose, and faster tongue of overrunning precip that arrives earlier, NAM may be on to something, as those are classic issues with overrunning setups
 
Warning criteria for a large part of Tenn.
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This sounding off the 12Z NAM for Thursday afternoon for the NW Piedmont is a thing of beauty: strong lift into the snow growth zone and below freezing through the column. If true, this produce fairly impressive snowfall rates.

sounding_2.png
 
crecre9 said:
NWS Huntsville is not impressed.
"Although not indicated in the current
grids, a brief period of sleet will be possible for most of the
forecast area at the onset of precipitation, based on thermal
profiles in the 20/09-12Z timeframe. However, as the rate of
hydrometeor production increases aloft, the low-level airmass will
modify to support very cold rain or perhaps a rain/snow mixture for
portions of northwest AL/southern TN."
Click to expand...
Par for the course. They are often the last to the party.
 
The NAM sniffed out the last two flizzards it makes a man wonder...I think that HP will limit the coastal from correcting to far NW but it won't matter for Western areas as were getting ours from the overrunning whitch Webb hit the nail on the head precipitation will probably be more exspansive than being advertised and the Nams best at sniffing that out imo...more so than globals the meso picks up on terrain, smaller features that can enhance precipitation and other variables...

Oh and the warm nose is alive and well it's one of those things were we want precipitation to get here before 1pm so It can accumulate I ran into that last month 33 pouring snow but just couldn't stick but at the same time we want the precipitation to hold off a little so the warm nose can erode kinda a double edge sword I think 1-3 statewide is a safe bet at this range...
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
yeah, NAM may be on to something, its showing what normally happens, stronger WAA, lots of frontogenesis, warm nose, and faster tongue of overrunning precip that arrives earlier, NAM may be on to something, as those are classic issues with overrunning setups
Click to expand...

Yeah I think the NAM is definitely onto something here while the ECMWF is out to lunch
 
NAM another crush job for central eastern NC, we might see a bit of a mix for the first few minutes but the NAM has snow and all snow the duration of the event here.....starts right around hr 52 and snows all the way till hr 70 or so call it 18 hrs of snow.....been awhile since we have had something like this possible here, since Dec 2010 probably.
 
3km looks very similar to 12km at long range. I find usually outside 48 hrs the 3km can be too dry at times.

That is further credit to the 12km solution. We may have something here...

Onset for me here in Eastern TN is in 48 hrs. with virga falling even before that.
 
Looks like the NAM actually increased totals for NC this run. Euro might be out to lunch.
 
3K does not have quite as stout of a warm nose in the upstate. I think we can crash the column pretty quick with how cold it is at almost all levels and the warm nose might be 33 degrees at most. Even then both the NAM and 3K have 2-4 inches along and north of 85 which I think is smart.
 
nam has a warm nose from hr 50-60 for clt while much of the precip moves through, and it even gets stronger from hr 54 or so on. this looks to be a sleet storm most likely for charlotte with token flakes on the back end. nam showing a warm nose like this and you can take it to the bank.
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This is my percentages for overall winter weather and snowfall taking place across the board. I included a separate upstate map for overall precip types since we have a few upstate folks that are wondering what to expect around this way. We really need to watch that warm nose. If its not quite as stout then i=I think we can crash the column pretty quickly and get more snow in here. As always i really see along and north of 85 being the sweet spot for our area. I really think from GSO over to the Triad and down I95 towards Fayetteville will do great but those lower areas really need to watch from that warm nose as well.
 

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Wondering who will be the 1st to issue a Winter Sorm watch for MBY/Triad Wilkesboro or Raleigh NWS.

12z Nam snows for almost 15 hours in Triad down to Asheboro.

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iGRXY said:
3K does not have quite as stout of a warm nose in the upstate. I think we can crash the column pretty quick with how cold it is at almost all levels and the warm nose might be 33 degrees at most. Even then both the NAM and 3K have 2-4 inches along and north of 85 which I think is smart.
Click to expand...
How? I see 1-2 at best for northern Greenville and Spartanburg based on Kuchera
 
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