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Deleted member 609
Guest
Yea hopefully nam is just over amping this a bit
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
I think the precip shield of the NAM is accurate but probably overdone on amounts.
Tomorrow night NAM will have that running roughly from clt to rdu.
Nerman
Member
It's about a lot of things. I think Charlotte will be fine with the rates being shown.
MichaelJ
Member
I don't think this will come too much further North due to the location of the 1035 high over southern Ohio
Shaggy
Member
The nam has been focusing that maximum within 30 to 40 miles of me now for a day or so. Just got to watch that warm nose on future runs.
iGRXY
Member
Kuchera almost always goes TOO low for totals. 10:1 is always too high since it does not separate P-Types. 2-4" seems reasonable right now.
I know its the simulated radar and a bit overdone but I feel like this will be closer to reality because temps will likely end up being colder than expected and I think rates would cool the column pretty quickly after onset. I don't think the rates would be to the extent of this sim. radar but I think they would be pretty close.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Warm advection... everywhere.
I think some of the globals, especially Euro, are going to fall flat on their faces here.
I think some of the globals, especially Euro, are going to fall flat on their faces here.
iGRXY
Member
This is absolutely what I see. the warm nose is 33-34 degrees and it is well below freezing above and below that except for the surface. Heavier rates and CAD will collapse the column.
Cadi40
Member
Would this Warm Advection affect Charlotte’s totals?
packfan98
Moderator
Brad P's latest thoughts....
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Icon moved the precip south
mainly pingers for charlotte, not surprised. hope we get some backend flakes.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The ICON ticked south on this run. I definitely think the best chance for snow in general is probably SE of Raleigh even if this ends up way NW in the end
if the nam is right with frontogenesis/WAA, then those amounts are possible
Nerman
Member
This shows the Zero C 850 line set up in NC and parts of upstate SC before the precip moves in. For areas West (GA, AL, MS) it is still arriving about 12 hours too late. That has been the theme for this one.
ajr
Member
Move this elsewhere if not thread appropriate, but broadly why do you think mets aren't focusing as much on this (and holding onto globals)?
12z ICON ticked a little SE. Good hit for SE NC, I think. Very little precip up towards RDU.
Is this model even any good, BTW? I don't know what its verification scores are.
Is this model even any good, BTW? I don't know what its verification scores are.
Yeap need that high and the artic press to move in a little sooner across the SE but walking a thin line of suppression there...truthful wouldn't need to play complete catch-up just 6-8 hours earlier will improve totals across the board
NAM 12k has the 700-850 levels significantly colder than the NAM 3k in N AL. Can anyone shed light on which one is more reliable and why at this range?
snowlover91
Member
Yes, most tv mets I've seen often go with the globals, especially the Euro and GFS for whatever reason. That's fine when 4+ days out but inside 2-3 days the meso models are usually better, especially with a warm nose. I remember years ago when the NAM was firing warning shots about a warm nose, globals didn't have it and NWS offices were forecasting large snow amounts for RDU to Greenville based on global output. It turned out the 3km NAM had the correct idea and the warm nose pushed all the way to the 85 corridor similar to what it modeled.
snowlover91
Member
Always go with 3km for a warm nose, in the years I've followed weather it usually handles them the best.
Do you think rates will be too light for Raleigh so that it primarily ends up as a light rain event despite snow falling farther southeast?
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
The RGEM is noticeably drier than the NAM at 48 hours (especially in TN). This, plus the ICON gives me pause at the moment.
The NWS has goofed for the last two small events in terms of Ptype. It has snowed with temps in the upper 30s and bottomed out down to 32 both times. I feel like they will miss the boat again. With that said, I don’t know how far the warm nose will make it up i77 but 99% of time it’s as far north as Iredell County NC which is a long county. Maybe the mix will stay near Mooresville but nothing really stopping it if precip rates bounce off and on. It will be a race to 1-3” for many IMO.
ATLwxfan
Member
Probably running out of time for I-20 folks for this one. Probably a sharp gradient in extreme north GA and a nice event for the mountains.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
MichaelJ
Member
Next 2 NAM runs will be critical and I think it is possible it will start correcting more towards the EURO. Problem for the SC, Ga, and ENC people will end up being temps and P-Type and for Northern NC and SVa will be moisture. As for the ICON, it has generally been a very poor model
Storm5
Member
I-20 never had much of a chance . If you want to see snow out of this system you will need to head north
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One thing that could help out southeast portions of Charlotte metro (SE Mecklenburg and Union Counties) is the development of the coastal low can erode the warm nose quicker as winds aloft turn. Those portions of the metro have gotten in on the developing deform band a number of times with the 2010 Christmas storm being a good example
I gave it a try here's my first call map
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Even though the GFS and Canadian have been trending towards the NAM?
This will certainly be 85 north at this point. That’s just as far as delayed cold can make it with precip streaming through the area. The topography won’t allow it to build any further south until the bulk of precip has moved off to the east. It’s only about 105’ elevation difference between Downtown Greenville and areas in southern Greenville county. But man does it matter
packfan98
Moderator
Through hr 54, the GFS seems a little more amped up.
ajr
Member
I remember that with the Jan 6-7, 2017 storm:
Preceding forecast discussion with 5-7 inches (when we ended up getting more like 1-2): https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDRAH&e=201701060342
North Carolina Climate Blog – North Carolina State Climate Office
climate.ncsu.edu
snowlover91
Member
Much more qpf on the GFS, only 54 hours out on this panel btw.
GFS definitely isn't correcting to the EURO, at least not yet.
Downeastnc
Member
The 12Z GFS run is gonna end up close to the NAM with snow totals in eastern NC
snowlover91
Member
Plenty of qpf on the GFS.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Local mets seem to be totally disregarding any other model and going with the Euro, even though the NAM has stayed consistent, and other models have trended to it.