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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

NCCWOP9077 said:
Certainly hope more members come on board to build confidence. The highest amount of members for me has been around 22 here in the NC coastal plain.

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Same here, might have been 23 at one point, looks like about 18 on the 18z but again I'd feel better if the op run started to come on board. But with that said, I actually like where we sit with this one, I don't think moisture will be an issue and we might be just far enough north to feel the effects of that HP...... a late blooming coastal wouldn't hurt either, am I asking for too much. Lol
 
This is my two cents. The hp is modeled way too high and mainly pna driven and not epo driven. Friday's hp was epo driven. I also would be shocked not to see more precipitation further north in future runs.
 
Goodness I want to be able to believe the NAM.... a good 'ol fashion NAMing is our future

I know it's the lr NAM and many will no doubt talk about how the NAM is notorious for over amping with high precip amounts but it really hasn't been that way recently (I believe it too had an upgrade at some point and has actually shown less precip then it usual over juiced self).
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If this would of keep going, this would have been a NC/upstate of SC paste bomb, that frontogenic band signal is a red flag by the NAM, and not the bad red flag View attachment 34776View attachment 34777
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The NAM is really good looking tempwise for N GA aside from a slight pocket of warmth aloft at that time frame especially compared to the the GFS at the exact time. Just look at the DPs plunging before the precip!NAMSE_sfc_dewp_084 (1).png
 
The 0Z run of the NAM makes my 1st prediction forecast seem like a real possibility. I agree that I think the High pressure will likely be around 1040-1044 as 1050’s just don’t happen. But with that running in tandem with the moisture and we know there is always more moisture and the NW trend always happens, I think this is a good initial prediction. I think the upstate over to NE SC and the coastal plain of NC could end up being the sweet spot due to some CAD and level of moisture. We will see and I’ll update this map more tomorrow afternoon into the evening.
 

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iGrey_X said:
The 0Z run of the NAM makes my 1st prediction forecast seem like a real possibility. I agree that I think the High pressure will likely be around 1040-1044 as 1050’s just don’t happen. But with that running in tandem with the moisture and we know there is always more moisture and the NW trend always happens, I think this is a good initial prediction. I think the upstate over to NE SC and the coastal plain of NC could end up being the sweet spot due to some CAD and level of moisture. We will see and I’ll update this map more tomorrow afternoon into the evening.
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Temperature dependent meaning temps may not support snow


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metwannabe said:
Goodness I want to be able to believe the NAM.... a good 'ol fashion NAMing is our future

I know it's the lr NAM and many will no doubt talk about how the NAM is notorious for over amping with high precip amounts but it really hasn't been that way recently (I believe it too had an upgrade at some point too and has actually shown less precip then it usual over juiced self).
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The NAM called the warning shots the other models didn't pick up on last time until the end, so if it's consistent, run with it.
iGrey_X said:
The 0Z run of the NAM makes my 1st prediction forecast seem like a real possibility. I agree that I think the High pressure will likely be around 1040-1044 as 1050’s just don’t happen. But with that running in tandem with the moisture and we know there is always more moisture and the NW trend always happens, I think this is a good initial prediction. I think the upstate over to NE SC and the coastal plain of NC could end up being the sweet spot due to some CAD and level of moisture. We will see and I’ll update this map more tomorrow afternoon into the evening.
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I think if there is going to be snow, it'll include N GA too, but not go as far north as your map has.
 
Jessy89 said:
Temperature dependent meaning temps may not support snow


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Meaning it’s still in the air from a temperature standpoint but slight adjustments either way means either some wintery mix of rain and snow or a good snow storm possible. Nothing is likely at all in this range. We’re between 84-96 hours away and that’s way too much time for things to change.
 
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