I really hope that will be the case for this event. I mean, if that sleet is extending to CAE, Charlotte should remain all snow. I still have my doubts, I don't want to get too excited. But I like this look. I really like where a lot of us sit.
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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
- Thread starter Six Mile Wx
- Start date
I really hope that will be the case for this event. I mean, if that sleet is extending to CAE, Charlotte should remain all snow. I still have my doubts, I don't want to get too excited. But I like this look. I really like where a lot of us sit.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Definitely something to pay attention to. Looks to me that the warm nose is not as impressive as on the NAM. Real question is whether the graupel starts first then goes to snow or the other way around.
Blacksburg is not Impressed it seems in my area! lol
THURSDAY...Cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow in the
morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon. Little or no
snow accumulation. Cooler with highs in the upper 30s. Light and
variable winds. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Cloudy in the evening, then clearing. A chance
of rain in the evening. A chance of snow. Little or no snow
accumulation. Cooler with lows in the lower 20s. North winds
around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
but isn't graupel just a mix of goop basically?
iGrey_X
Member
The HRRR is a warm bused model so if it’s picking up on that much snow already in the upstate, that’s something that gives me a good idea that 2-4” across the upstate is a good idea right now.
If we can beat back the warm nose with rates for only a short time I think eventually cold air will continue to filter in and make it easier for the snow to stay all snow ... good signs regardless tonight wrt the warm nose
pcbjr
Member
either way, it is white and frozen ... a beggar's banquet ... ❄
pcbjr
Member
refrozen snow ...
I agree! I am cautiously optimistic about this system. I hope both Charlotte and Raleigh can score. We have been the dividing line, with pretty much every storm. Rooting for you guys in the Triangle!
that's what i thought.
Well the professor up at Appalachian State sounds bitter. Ray told everyone he won’t be going higher than a dusting to 1” because of “how this winter has gone”. Goes on to say to keep your expectations low so you won’t be disappointed. If you don’t believe me go read his forecast for Boone. Seems a bit foolish without a science reasoning to let the public think for themselves. I guess he has no care for student safety.
I wanted to put this in here since it was already posted in the Whamby thread, but the ARPEGE made a huge shift from a Euroish solution to a big dog NAMish solution today. I don’t think this model is particularly good, but it’s good to see another model fall in line, IMO.
BlueRidgeFolklore
Member
He might be right for the far northern mountains.
I haven't seen a lot on the models but the NAM setup certainly points toward a little. The 3k did actually generate a very low SB cape value around us lol
WxBlue
Meteorologist
I might be too bullish with this forecast, but someone had to give it a shot over these conservative local mets. Posting this onto my Facebook page for family and friends was terrifying.
EDIT: I decided to drop 6-8" zone in eastern NC for now with my social media posts.
EDIT: I decided to drop 6-8" zone in eastern NC for now with my social media posts.
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So, on one hand with varying Big Dogs we have the NAM/GFS/ICON/GGEM/ARPEGE/NAVGEM/RAP/WRF and on the other side we have the suppressed Euro and UKMET. The UKMET does typically have a suppression bias, IIRC. I do hope the Euro folds tonight, but most of the modeling is on the side of a big storm in some form or fashion now.
Lowtown
Member
Just caught the latest forecast from Van Denton. Their in-house model updated right before he showed it, and it now has the snow shield making it up to the Triad. He said it had been one of the last hold-outs for showing no snow here. Definitely gave the impression that he’ll be upping his official forecast of 1”. The trends seem to be lining up for us this time hopefully!
